Just sayin’.... Topic

The leading scorer on my Pepperdine team has not yet shot a free throw through four games.

12pts per game. 25min per game. 41 FGA. No free throws attempted.





Feel free to post any oddities that you have witnessed with your teams.
9/23/2009 4:28 PM
make that 5 games
9/24/2009 10:38 AM
creilmann, in 87 career games, he's shot 67, so less than 1 per game. He does not have great SPD, ATH or BH. And it looks like he's set to +1 on 3s (which is a pretty good setting for his skill set). His FT pace does not look that unusual IMO. I think I'd try to get Moylan and especially Urbina more shots. They have good SPD and decent ATH for their positions, and could get to the line more. Moylan's D FT rating is an issue, but Urbina can hit them. Good luck.
9/24/2009 10:57 AM
js, damn you and your fancy "logic" and "book learnin".

While I agree with you for the most part, I do think it's pretty excessive not to be shooting any free throws at all. I mean, where are the home refs to bail him out every once in awhile?

In general, I'm not a fan of how the engine determines who's getting to the foul line. Among other things, I definitely think athletic big men get screwed in that dept, which is hopefully something they'll be addressing.
9/24/2009 11:07 AM
My Senior Center (who is #10 in school history with 100 blocks) who has averaged 1.3 and 1.2 blocks per game the past 2 years did not have a block in the 1st 3 games and is now averaging .4 Blocks per game.
9/24/2009 12:00 PM
Sample size, my friend. Sample size.
9/24/2009 12:10 PM
I agree with dalter here, jskenner, although I agree with your second point on Moylan and Urbina. I didn't expect Heffernan to be a big contributer to the offense, but he's the only one who's stepped up. He's equal in distribution to Moylan and Urbina, but has been getting the most touches by far (Moylan and Urbina have gotten very few for what they're set at).

It's not that he's not getting to the line enough, he's just not getting to it at all.
9/24/2009 12:35 PM
I hear you, creilmann. It seems he's never gotten to the line much. Not that you can check, but since he's averaged less than 1 attempt per game for his career (playing starter minutes that entire time), I bet he's had many games shooting 0. Since most times a trip to the line is 2 shots (except missed 1/1s and 3 pt plays), and since some games he shot more than 2, and since he's shooting less than 1 a game overall, let's assume he shoots 0 in 60% of his games. So the odds of shooting 0 in 5 straight games would be 60% raised to the 5th power. This works out to about an 8% chance. So it approaches an outlier result. But I think you'll find he'll regress to his mean of about .7-.8 attempts per game by the end of the year. In the end, I think the HD engines treats him like a Bobby Frasor type (sorry, UNC fan here), who just isn't built to produce FT attempts. One thing I think I would check is the matchups he's faced in those first 5 games. Has he gone against fast, athletic, good defenders in a man? Has he faced a zone much (less FTs caused). Has he faced a press against weaker defenders?
9/24/2009 12:59 PM
cr, I went back and checked those 5 games. Here's my take:

Game 1: Heffernan (this guy really should be named Doug, by the way) starts at SF (natural SG) and has 65 ATH, 71 SPD, 24 LP, 79 PE, 65 BH, A- IQ. He's matched (on the road) against a press +1, with his defender only 57 ATH, 53 SPD, a very poor 37 DEF, and A- IQ. From the box score and PBP, it looks like you had Heffernan set to at least +1 on 3s (maybe even +2), since of 9 shots, 7 were 3s, and 1 of the 2s was a steal and layup. So 7 of 8 set offense shots were 3s. My translation, he was matched against a slow and poor defender, who he could've driven around, but he relied on jump shots, never forcing the foul. Not that this tactic didn't work here: he went 4-7 from 3.

Game 2: He goes against a -2 man, with his defender 77 ATH, 54 SPD, 99 DEF, A- IQ, 74 ST (slowdown). This situation is a little less set to produce fouls, but with the 17 SPD advantage, he might be able to get past his many here and there. He goes 5-8 from 3 and 2-3 on jumpers just inside the 3. Again, I'm guessing a +1 3 setting, with his skill set never allowing a drive. Maybe a 0 setting would've gotten him to drive once or twice, but again I can't argue with those results: 19 pts and 1 TO from only 11 shots.

Game 3: At home against a 2-3 zone (-2) with decent defenders (75, 46, 73, 99, 94) and good SPD/ATH. Heffernan shoots 1-9, all from 3. I'm guessing maybe a +2 setting.

Game 4: On the road against a balanced (0) man, with his defender 99 ATH, 75 SPD, 99 DEF, A IQ. A tough matchup for Heffernan. Of his 12 shots, 10 are 3s, committing 5 TOs. I don't think either of the 2 other shots were drives to the basket. Urbina and Moylan, matched against significantly poorer defenders, attempt only 8 shots (including 1 trip to the line) between them. Heffernan maybe set to +1.

Game 5: Moves to natural SG, on the road against a +2 press and a defender with 49 ATH, 83 SPD, 63 DEF and only C IQ. He shoots 2 3s and 4 jumpers against the faster (less athletic) defender, hitting only 1 of each, with 3 TOs. Entire team plays poorly, maybe a victim of random-game-effecting-number.

Summary: This is all my opinion. I think Heffernan is a bit handicapped by his skill set combination. He lacks SPD and BH for SG, and doesn't have exceptional ATH to help mitigate this deficiency. He has done well shooting at the SF spot. I think he should've gotten less looks in the offense compared to some better options, especially in some particular games, where better matchups were available. But overall, except for lack of FTs, I think his offensive performance has helped more than hurt. Nevertheless, I think if I were coaching, I would drop his distribution, and against the press, I'd drop his 3 setting to at least 0, and maybe -1 (depending on the SPD/ATH of his defender). I think SF is a good spot for him (although Moylan might work better in some situations), but I would try to get his LP as high as possible (I noticed it dropped 1 point). Every point here gives him a better chance of successful post up at the SF. Again, just my opinion, and good luck.
9/24/2009 1:40 PM
By the way, to daalter's point, he's only been at home once, and he shot all 3s against a zone in that one. From looking at the PBP, he's given himself precious few chances to be bailed out by refs. Not to say I love the way FTs are "produced" (or not) in the engine. That could use some work. But I THINK this player, with his skill set, combined with the way he's being utilized (as mostly a set shooter), is contributing to his lack of FTs.
9/24/2009 1:43 PM
js, I was totally joking about the "being bailed out by the refs" comment.

But no doubt if the guy is camping out at the 3-pt line, that's going to reduce his chances of getting to the ft line.
9/24/2009 1:48 PM
I knew that, dalt. It's just that cr agreed with you, and I wanted to clarify my stance on your comment. No worries.

Now if I can just figure out how to best use my Rupp-Whitworth squad. As they say, it's so much easier to figure out other people's problems than one's own. Care to throw some insight my way? ;)
9/24/2009 2:04 PM
Quote: Originally posted by jskenner on 9/24/2009cr, I went back and checked those 5 games.  Here's my take:Game 1:  Heffernan (this guy really should be named Doug, by the way) starts at SF (natural SG) and has 65 ATH, 71 SPD, 24 LP, 79 PE, 65 BH, A- IQ.  He's matched (on the road) against a press +1, with his defender only 57 ATH, 53 SPD, a very poor 37 DEF, and A- IQ.  From the box score and PBP, it looks like you had Heffernan set to at least +1 on 3s (maybe even +2), since of 9 shots, 7 were 3s, and 1 of the 2s was a steal and layup.  So 7 of 8 set offense shots were 3s.  My translation, he was matched against a slow and poor defender, who he could've driven around, but he relied on jump shots, never forcing the foul.  Not that this tactic didn't work here: he went 4-7 from 3.Game 2: He goes against a -2 man, with his defender 77 ATH, 54 SPD, 99 DEF, A- IQ, 74 ST (slowdown).  This situation is a little less set to produce fouls, but with the 17 SPD advantage, he might be able to get past his many here and there.  He goes 5-8 from 3 and 2-3 on jumpers just inside the 3.  Again, I'm guessing a +1 3 setting, with his skill set never allowing a drive.  Maybe a 0 setting would've gotten him to drive once or twice, but again I can't argue with those results:  19 pts and 1 TO from only 11 shots.Game 3: At home against a 2-3 zone (-2) with decent defenders (75, 46, 73, 99, 94) and good SPD/ATH.  Heffernan shoots 1-9, all from 3.  I'm guessing maybe a +2 setting.Game 4: On the road against a balanced (0) man, with his defender 99 ATH, 75 SPD, 99 DEF, A IQ.  A tough matchup for Heffernan.  Of his 12 shots, 10 are 3s, committing 5 TOs.  I don't think either of the 2 other shots were drives to the basket.  Urbina and Moylan, matched against significantly poorer defenders, attempt only 8 shots (including 1 trip to the line) between them.  Heffernan maybe set to +1.Game 5: Moves to natural SG, on the road against a +2 press and a defender with 49 ATH, 83 SPD, 63 DEF and only C IQ.  He shoots 2 3s and 4 jumpers against the faster (less athletic) defender, hitting only 1 of each, with 3 TOs.  Entire team plays poorly, maybe a victim of random-game-effecting-number.Summary:  This is all my opinion.  I think Heffernan is a bit handicapped by his skill set combination.  He lacks SPD and BH for SG, and doesn't have exceptional ATH to help mitigate this deficiency.  He has done well shooting at the SF spot.  I think he should've gotten less looks in the offense compared to some better options, especially in some particular games, where better matchups were available.  But overall, except for lack of FTs, I think his offensive performance has helped more than hurt.  Nevertheless, I think if I were coaching, I would drop his distribution, and against the press, I'd drop his 3 setting to at least 0, and maybe -1 (depending on the SPD/ATH of his defender).  I think SF is a good spot for him (although Moylan might work better in some situations), but I would try to get his LP as high as possible (I noticed it dropped 1 point).  Every point here gives him a better chance of successful post up at the SF.  Again, just my opinion, and good luck.

Great analysis jsk. He has been set at +1 from the arc since game 1. He was actually set for less distribution than Moylan and Urbina in the first two games, but I equaled him out starting with game three.

We run flex, so I'm trying to capitalize on spreading the court as much as possible, which obviously will lead to more open shots for a guy like Heffernan. No doubt that he's going to have fewer opportunities at the line. For that matter, my whole team will not see the line as much as my opponents this season, but I would expect a couple of attempts by now.

We'll see what happens as I experiment with this team all season. I thought he'd see a FT shot against UC since I moved him to SG and they played a +2 defense on me.
9/24/2009 2:23 PM
Thanks, cr. As one of my Phelan conference mates just wrote, we are basically trying to "read HD tea leaves." Good luck figuring it this season.
9/24/2009 2:35 PM
6 games 0-0 from the line although he did go 8-13 from the arc and we got the win so I'm not complaining.
9/25/2009 1:28 PM
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