This formula that I estimate is about as accurate as $18M in advance scouting. It works on most all the fielding, hitting, and pitching ratings. It's a pretty simple formula. Take the % of growth between the values of spring training S1 and spring training S2 multiply times 2.5 and add that number to original spring training S1 value.


If you want to use excel just put the rating of the first season in the A2 field and the second season in the A3 field and copy the following formula in the A4 field.

=((A3-A2)*2.5)+A2

***(edit thanks to mrpolo09 for cleaning up the formula a bit)


It has some limitations. First off it takes two spring trainings to work so it's not immediate. It won't work on players created in the initial league setup, so they need to be drafted players or IFAs. Injuries and DITR also mess with the formula. It also won't tell you when a guy starts to decline. So it's not perfect, but by testing it on vets I've found it is rarely off by more than a few points.

I first used it on my players and was getting consistent and accurate results, but then I started checking other teams and notice it worked just as well. Some of these teams were owned by completely incompetent owners and yet they still progressed.

Besides being useful for predicting players it did also seem to indicate that unless a player is just blatantly abused on purpose, had an injury, or became a DITR, there is not much that you can do to affect a players ratings. That doesn't mean that coaches don't affect players, but the truth is since coaches jump around and we all hire coaches with roughly the same ratings the net affect is very small.

It also seemed to indicate that every player pretty much uses the same development and the only things that can create a large change are injuries, DITR, and at what age a player declines.

"there is not much that you can do to affect a players ratings". outstanding

work, thank you sir!!!

So reassuring to find people who will cheat, then pat themselves on the back for doing so.

1) This isn't cheating. What are you supposed to do, ignore the fact that you've observed that the development engine is monotonous? This is why so many players are going to ADV="0" budgeting. In fact, by posting this, Jester has potentially made the game more fair, since everyone can now go to ADV="0" budgeting and there won't be any advantage to those of us who are already doing it (or headed that way).

2) This is why the next update should be a complete re-working of the development engine.

Quote: Originally Posted By dedelman on 11/14/2009
2) This is why the next update should be a complete re-working of the development engine.

Also why advance scouting should include "scouting" to prepare for what the opponent players are capable of and could do at game time. IE game day preparation - low adv scouting = poor game day preparation, particularly against players and teams not previously faced.

But as things are most experienced owners use low advanced scouting having already made some variation of the above projections in their heads.

any reworking of the development engine should also revise the DITR(ZITR) concept/engine

That would be a great addition to the game griv. Incorporate adv. scouting to game prep. Realistic in real life-find out a hitters weakness, adv. scouting pitchers.

But my experience with WIS is that would be asking far too much from them.

Quote: Originally Posted By jsturgis5866 on 11/14/2009So reassuring to find people who will cheat, then pat themselves on the back for doing so.

If you found someone cheating, let's hear about it.

The only problem is that you are basically talking about gameplanning for each individual batter. If you are looking at the strengths/weaknesses and tendencies of the upcoming players you face, that would be a lot of work every 8 hours and I'm not sure they want to add that into the mix...just my thought.

Quote: Originally Posted By TheJester74 on 11/14/2009This formula that I estimate is about as accurate as $18M in advance scouting. It works on most all the fielding, hitting, and pitching ratings. It's a pretty simple formula. Take the % of growth between the values of spring training S1 and spring training S2 multiply times 2.5 and add that number to original spring training S1 value.


If you want to use excel just put the rating of the first season in the A2 field and the second season in the A3 field and copy the following formula in the A4 field.

=((((A3-A2)/A2)*2.5)*A2)+A2

to simplify. Multipy the first season's growth by 2.5 to get his total growth

or for excel =((A3-A2)*2.5)+A2

and wow. i wouldn't say i'm a horrible player but i never knew advanced scouting was on valid after a player signed on your team. Pretty dumb of me. . .

but wouldn't that fix the problem? if advanced scouting was used to project ratings of IFA's and players in the draft pool. The individual budgets could be for their current ratings and which player you "see".

I always thought it was this way, because it makes more sense. If advanced scouting truly is only valid after a player is on your roster then it is a complete waste

I think its only real value is if you do not have an established team and you are looking to maybe get some young talent. It would help when trading for a young guy on another team whos original scouting projections Coll/IFA/HS you do not have.

You're right MrPolo, the formula was an evolution of me testing other formula's and I never cleaned it up.

Yes I do believe the player is somewhat monotonous. The age of decline and injuries are the only variables. Their scouting system (having multiple scouts from college/hs, international then moving to adv scouts that give you different projections) is somewhat a slight of hand to throw you off the trail that current rating is the only honest indicator.

To be honest I'm not trying to kill the fun of the game, but there are really only so many forum post that one can read about "which coach's rating is most important" and "how can I develop player X's glove" before you just say it doesn't matter what you do.

There were also so many developer chat's where people would ask questions about "how does a coach's discipline rating affect players" or "how does a player's patience/makeup/etc rating affect how a player develops" and we always got these vague answers. I think the reason we got vague answers is they have almost no affect.

Coaches actually do matter. So does playing time. Not disputing that player development is pretty standard from team to team. My players develop a certain way because of the way I do things. Others develop their players differently for the same reason.

If you don't think coaches/playing time matter, hire a bunch of crappy coaches and let your best prospects sit the bench. I'd be interested in seeing how that works for you.

Or simply look at an existing team, perhaps one with revolving door ownership, and see how far the first-round prospects (unlikely to DITR) are from their projections. It's really sad.

How did you come up with the equivilancy to $18M Adv Scouting?