Quote: Originally Posted By dedelman on 11/15/2009
Unless it says, "probably won't sign," he will sign. "Undecided," or "may sign if the deal is right," just mean he's probably going to ask for more than slot, and it seems to me the number is usually 150-200% of slot (although I just saw a guy ask for triple slot with a "may sign").

If it says "probably won't sign," but he's represented by an agent, he might or might not sign. If he's represented by his mother it's about 95% that he won't sign-- I've only seen one of them sign, and that for $11.7M.



Not always the case. http://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/ProspectProfile.aspx?pid=2949216 just turned me down flat after a short wait.

Quote: Originally Posted By dakar on 11/15/2009

Quote: Originally Posted By dedelman on 11/15/2009

Unless it says, "probably won't sign," he will sign. "Undecided," or "may sign if the deal is right," just mean he's probably going to ask for more than slot, and it seems to me the number is usually 150-200% of slot (although I just saw a guy ask for triple slot with a "may sign").

If it says "probably won't sign," but he's represented by an agent, he might or might not sign. If he's represented by his mother it's about 95% that he won't sign-- I've only seen one of them sign, and that for $11.7M.



Not always the case. http://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/ProspectProfile.aspx?pid=2949216 just turned me down flat after a short wait.

Quote: Originally Posted By dedelman on 11/15/2009
Unless it says, "probably won't sign," he will sign. "Undecided," or "may sign if the deal is right," just mean he's probably going to ask for more than slot, and it seems to me the number is usually 150-200% of slot (although I just saw a guy ask for triple slot with a "may sign").

If it says "probably won't sign," but he's represented by an agent, he might or might not sign. If he's represented by his mother it's about 95% that he won't sign-- I've only seen one of them sign, and that for $11.7M.





Also, you can wait them out. I had exactly one of those 'mother-represented' guys who asked for 6.8M (pick #20). I offered demand and it was rejected. (Context here - IFA bidding in this world is pretty inflated and guys had already transferred huge money to prospect budgets). Demands raised to 11.8M. I had already spent my prospect budget down to 9.5M (after signing other picks and a 3M good glove IFA shortstop) when the demands went up. Lost cause, right?

Not really. Once the IFA pool dried up and I was with that 9.5M in unused cash, I just persistantly kept offering it and having it rejected - twenty or so separate times, until finally, right after the regular season ended, the mother said "we're glad you finally came to your senses..." (although I never changed anything) and he signed.

Would I have signed him at that amount at draft time? Probably not, but since WIS has a "use it or lose it" policy w.r.t. cash, it certainly became worth it. I guess I could have waiting until the type D next season, but then I would have had to budget for it. Moral of the story of course is that if you got prospect who looks to be a good value relative to the particular slot - there is no guarantee he won't sign for less than his demand. In this case, because of his signability, he was probably a higher quality player than a #20 pick.