Looking at several top prospects in an upcoming draft that all come with "baggage". If the prospects are all equally desireable, talent wise, which would be the most likely to sign?

1) May sign if the deal is right.

2) Undecided, may want to finish college, play another pro sport, etc.

3) Looking to picked in 1st round

4) Probably won't sign, etc.

Did I rank these right as far as probability of signing? Do players who want to get drafted in 1st round but don't ever sign?

set your draft settings to very conservative and you won't have to deal with any of em

(1) Will almost always sign, they just may come back and raise the price.

(2) I have seen these players not sign and sometimes they will sign but only for a higher price.

(3) To my experience, will always sign if picked in the first round. I can't say for sure what happens if you pick them in other rounds.

(4) As they say, probably won't sign.

Take the best player. Offer their demands. If they won't sign, take they Type D pick. The only exception to that may be (4). Maybe drop them off your list.

I would go the conservative route but the dropoff from the "baggage" prospects to the others is huge.
Thanks for all the answers I appreciate the help.

Depends on where you're picking AND how good the picks are relative to where you're drafting AND the timetable for the rest of your farm system.

Quote: Originally Posted By gjello10 on 11/24/2009Take the best player. Offer their demands. If they won't sign, take they Type D pick. The only exception to that may be (4). Maybe drop them off your list

It's not that simple in HBD. IN MLB you only have to make a "qualified offer" which is something just below slot. In HBD, you have to offer their initial demands which could be triple slot. This should be fixed to reflect the MLB rule.

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If you have a 1st round pick, #3 is a lock. As he says, he will sign as long as he is picked in the 1st round. If this player is worthy of your 1st pick, go for him.

Quote: Originally Posted By ttnorm on 11/24/2009

Quote: Originally Posted By gjello10 on 11/24/2009
Take the best player. Offer their demands. If they won't sign, take they Type D pick. The only exception to that may be (4). Maybe drop them off your list.

It's not that simple in HBD. IN MLB you only have to make a "qualified offer" which is something just below slot. In HBD, you have to offer their initial demands which could be triple slot. This should be fixed to reflect the MLB rule

They should change this rule, but with a very high pick (which rugby seems to have) I wouldn't worry about the money. You have to take a star and make those high picks count. If it's really close between 2 guys, then sure, go for the cheaper/more signable guy. But don't screw around with getting a "very good" player at #5 or whatever. Draft for greatness at the top of the draft. If you draft a great player at #5 and he doesn't sign, then you get a great player at #6 with the Type D pick next year (plus you free a up a few $mil extra in IFA money this year once your offer is rejected).

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Quote: Guys are already intentionally doing this now...but at least now they know in order to pull off that strategy, they are going to have a TON of prospect cash tied up in an offer to the guy for a while until he rejects it.

Yeah, I think the system is fine how it is now. I did this for the last draft I had. I picked 16th and put a "probably won't sign" guy at the top of my draft. I figured it was worth the risk of getting a 1st-overall quality guy at 16.

You just have to remember the next year to set to conservative because the pick won't roll over for a second year.

Quote: Originally Posted By jtrinsey on 11/24/2009
(1) Will almost always sign, they just may come back and raise the price.

(2) I have seen these players not sign and sometimes they will sign but only for a higher price.

(3) To my experience, will always sign if picked in the first round. I can't say for sure what happens if you pick them in other rounds.

(4) As they say, probably won't sign.

Exactly right. BUT it's missing one thing... their asking price. The harder to sign guys ask for more $$$. Though sometimes they are worth it and other times they are not.

The thing to remember, the guy may ask for 7 million (as an example) to start with. Then say... I'm thinking about. It's likely IF they do come back and say they will sign... will not be at that starting price!! They most likely ask for EVEN MORE!! So again it comes back to "Are they worth it???"

Be aware.... the starting price will likely NOT be the final price IF they agree to sign. In one world I'm in, I do a review of the first round for our Blog every season. So I've seen guys drafted, who are asking for a LOT of $$ money and they ain't close to worth that... and seen others who are... so

In order of cost to sign:

1) Asking for Slot Money
2) Looking to be Drafted in or by Rnd #...... *
3) Undecided, may if deal is right
4) Undecided, has scholarships for ........
5) Most likely will not sign.

*If drafted by the round they state*

So if you go after an Undecided guy, you'd be able to fork out the $$$