I have a relief pitcher who's projected to basically become Mariano Rivera. I'm still pretty new and I haven't had to develop any great prospects from beginning to end. I was just wondering what the odds were that he would actually reach his projections. FYI He's projected at 95/97/98. All of my various scouting has projected him at high 90's. I had high draft scouting and 18 in adv scouting last year, along with 14 this year.

www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=2924552

Also, what's the most you've ever seen a non-DITR pitcher progress in one season, and in a career?

Wouldn't expect him to reach those projections, especially since he is an "old" prospect at 23. However, given only one year experience and looking at the improvement he's made in a small chunk of this season, I would expect him to get quite a bit better.

In my experience, development is related to years of pro experience, not age. Years 2 and 3 are the big development years, then they slow down in year 4 and slow down a lot in year 5. There was a good thread lately about predicting a player's ultimate ratings from his first 2 years: Here

Yeah I've never seen anything that says age matters at all. Do you have any kind of evidence of this spencer?

Older players tend to be closer to their actual ratings when drafted. First rounders out of college:

http://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=1072368

http://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=1469204

http://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=904290

http://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=1932392

Out of HS:

http://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=585280

http://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=1682286

http://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=2161507

As you can see, the HS kids have bigger development jumps the first two seasons.

I've stopped hoping for projection actualization. Their current is what they've got. Improvements are a bonus. That said, I give my prospects 3-4 seasons in the minors, maybe 2 if they're an old prospect. After 4 seasons in the littles, the improvements slow waaayyy down.

I was also under the impression that a player's Makeup had a lot to do with his ability to reach his projections. Is it safe to say that a player with Makeup of 90 would come closer to his projections than a player with a 70 (barring injury, bad coaching, etc.)?

Yes, very much so.