I had one of those "OH-NO!" moments in the wee hours of the morning when I attempted to do arb signings/extensions while not quite awake. I offered third-year arb to two players I wanted to sign to long-term deals. One was a 27 yr-old #1 pitcher. I spent about an hour bemoaning my fate, unable to go back to sleep.

Within the same cycle, I got back on the PC, started looking at my team's next season FAs, and these two still show up as willing to sign long-term deals, even after the third arb season. I ended up signing them both, thus ending up with effectively a six-year contract.

I now await the inevitable, "You're a little late to the party. Everyone knows about this" post.

but, don't you run the risk of them maybe not willing to sign the long-term at that point?

Oh, sure, I wouldn't recommend this as a standard practice. But if you really want a six-year deal, or if you simply have second thoughts on third-year arb, this is in the toolkit.

How much does a 2nd Arb effect future long term deals? Enough to make it not worth doing? Does it depend on overall/patience?

The "Oh NO!" moment occurs when they go down for 435 days each 2 cycles after you sign them to the 6 year deal.

What were their makeup and patience accordingly?

60/44 for one guy and 78/61 for the other.

A missing key here is whether you gave the player the amount he was asking for in arbitration, or if you low-balled him.

When WIS says you run the risk of players not wanting to sign by taking them to arbitration, they mean when you try to pay them less than what they want. Give them what they want and you're not ******* them off.

Not really a key point. Both players lost in third year arb. The SS wanted $9.8M and I offered $8.4M, and the arbitrator sided with me. The pitcher's difference was not as significant. I think the player's indignation kicks in after the cycle has been completed. Within the same cycle, it seems, they are completely oblivious.

Well it is a key point to know, some people think by paying them what they want in arb, that effects their likelihood to re-sign as much as if you "won" arbitration.

Also doing it multiple times has more effect than just once. So without knowing those details, it's hard to know if we should be surprised.

Um, I would beg to differ. The commonly accepted view is that if a player goes to arbitration a third time (and in this case loses), no matter what happened during the first and second arb hearings, said player will look to become a FA the following season.

But hey, you've played eight seasons, so you may know better.

The real question is how many people are going to start using the 6 year deal now?

Quote: Originally posted by cbriese on 12/29/2009Um, I would beg to differ. The commonly accepted view is that if a player goes to arbitration a third time (and in this case loses), no matter what happened during the first and second arb hearings, said player will look to become a FA the following season.But hey, you've played eight seasons, so you may know better.

If that's so, then the "commonly accepted view" is wrong. Way, way, way wrong.