First, let me say that I have no problem with the HR correction. I like the fact that it's very hard to hit 60 home runs now. I just wanted to look at the data and see what it said.

I looked at the World Snapshot comparing 1/4/09 with 11/2/08 (the day before the update went into effect), and here are the results:

AVG and OBP are identical
SLG and ISO are down 30 points
PA per game are up 0.13% (essentially the same)

HR/G are down 33.5%
H/G are up 0.05%
2B/G are up 0.23%
3B/G are up 0.30%
R/G are down 7.3%

Admin claims that "The "lost" home runs have become doubles, singles and triples." That's partly true. Since OBP and AVG are identical, they have remained hits. However, none of those home runs have become doubles and triples, since 2B and 3B/G hasn't moved. Those "lost" home runs have all become singles. Looks like the correction isn't doing what they intended.

In real life, power is a large contributor to average. Hard hit groundballs go through the infield much more often than softly hit groundballs. Hard hit flyballs often go over the outfielders heads or into the stands, whereas softly hit flyballs are usually outs. So this shows that HBD figures out if hitter gets a hit first, then uses the power rating to see what kind of hit that is. I believe that this is a flaw in the simulation engine for the reasons I explained.

But you have to remember there isn't a real game going on somewhere between little tiny guys - it's all just numbers and statistics being crunched by a computer. So it makes sense to try and visualize what a homerun would really turn into, but that's not exactly what WiS wanted to do. All the stats they keep indicate the engine is running as it should (which basically means the average HBD season mimics a season from 2000-2003). Except that they noticed HR's were too high in comparison to more recent MLB stats. So in order to eliminate HR's wihtout changing anything else, they had to turn HR's into something very similar but that isn't a homerun - which is basically a single, double or triple - so as to not screw up all the other stats being kept. Make sense?

I think you are missing the point of my post - they are NOT becoming doubles and triples. They are becoming singles. That is fine if that is what Admin intended, but to hear them describe it, that's not what the point of the update was.

I understand that, but I think what you really should compare are the stats from HBD pre update and post udpate and the stats from the average season of MLB from 2000-2003 and then the average of the last three MLB seasons. In theory the pre update HBD stats should be the same as MLB from 2000-2003 and the post-update stats should be about the same as 2000-2003 but with the homerun numbers from the more recent seasons. If doubles and triples after the update are way below current MLB stats, then I would totally agree with your statement.

In 2009, the MLB average line was .262/.333/.418. In 2002, it was .261/.331/.417. Contrary to popular belief, scoring has not declined significantly since testing began. If the point of the update was to change HRs into singles so that the average HBD line matched the average MLB line, then that is fine. Admin is claiming that these HRs are becoming doubles and triples, and that is simply not true.

I think you are going to have to get deeper than just those lines though. You would need the detailed stats that WiS provides on the world snapshot page. I believe that is how they fine tune the engine.

Incidentally, the average HBD line before the update was .271/.338/.442. It changed to .271/.338/.412 after the update, so the results match real life much more closely now.

I got all of these stats from the World Snapshot page, BTW.

What if Hrs are turning into all hits, but 2Bs and 3Bs are turning into 1Bs? (playing devil's advocate)

My two power hitters from Mantle: Dan King and Leo Strong

In the three previous full seasons (all before the update), per 100 AB's, here are their stats:

King: 17.54 singles, 3.41 doubles, 0.32 triples, 7.25 HR's

Strong: 15.15 singles, 2.82 doubles, 0.18 triples, 7.69 HR's

During the current season (64 games in, entirely since the update), also per 100 AB's:

King: 19.34 singles, 4.94 doubles, 1.65 triples, 6.58 HR's

Strong: 19.52 singles, 3.81 doubles, 0.00 triples, 6.19 HR's

Granted, it's only two players, but they are my two biggest power hitters and the only ones I've looked at. In both cases, singles and doubles are both up, triples are up for King, and home runs are down.

It would be interesting for others to look at their big power hitters to see what individual results are.

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=1009664

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=1885375

don't have any rad calculations, but it looks like these guys are having their HRs become singles.

If HRs are down, and batting average is the same, doesn't that mean BABIP is up, and thus defense is more important? And if defense is now more important, inserting better defenders will also force power numbers down.

Quote: Originally posted by bfkfraser on 1/05/2010What if Hrs are turning into all hits, but 2Bs and 3Bs are turning into 1Bs?  (playing devil's advocate)

Yeah, that is definitely possible, but the end result is the same. I guess it's all semantics, really. Ultimately, individual HR totals were very high (much higher than MLB at the high end) and Admin wanted to lower the HR totals. The new batting lines are very close to the MLB actuals.

Quote: Originally posted by jonas1102 on 1/05/2010If HRs are down, and batting average is the same, doesn't that mean BABIP is up, and thus defense is more important?   And if defense is now more important, inserting better defenders will also force power numbers down.

I don't think this is correct, at least for the way that WiS implements hitting. It would be true if WiS implemented hitting based on BABIP, but it does not. Like palpatine said above, WiS first decides whether or not a PA results in a hit. If it is a hit, then they decide whether or not it's a HR. So basically, this change has increased BABIP for every world, but there is nothing the defense could have done to change that. The HR would have been a hit anyway, regardelss of the defense.