Do you have players who consistently produce better or worse than their ratings numbers would suggest? Or a guy who consistently produces better than a teammate who has better numbers?

Any clue why this happens...

Perhaps a misunderstanding of the ratings, leading to an unreasonable expectation of production?

Quote: Originally Posted By tecwrg on 1/10/2010Perhaps a misunderstanding of the ratings, leading to an unreasonable expectation of production

This is the most likely cause and, to be honest, I like finding such players because it makes me revisit what I think is valuable in terms of ratings. Now I'm a bit more set in my ways because I have some more experience, but especially early on.

If you see a player who you think it consistently (large sample size, at the ML level, against non-fatigued pitching, accounting for ballparks) over- or under-performing, take a close look at his ratings and those of the guys you are comparing him to and try to figure out what you may be missing. There may very well be a lesson to be learned from him.

Z is absolutely correct. Sometimes conventional wisdom is useless. Here is an example where I was told by a number of people, "That guy couldn't mop up for my AAA team with a vR of 43".

Quote: Originally posted by cbriese on 1/10/2010Z is absolutely correct. Sometimes conventional wisdom is useless. Here is an example where I was told by a number of people, "That guy couldn't mop up for my AAA team with a vR of 43".

I'm thinking he benefited some from the absurd defense behind him.

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Maybe not as consistent as youre looking for as each are relievers and have only played 2 seasons, but William Chen just picked up his 8th loss in 100 games so far this season/ 12th in 2 seasons and seems to give up a homer every time he pitches, while Ernest Bale has just been consistently good.

I have found that there are guys who succeed before I have them and after I have them, but who cannot hit or pitch with Honolulu as their home park.

As a result, before I sign a major FA or make a trade for a major guy, I try to find how he did when playing at my home park. If the guy consistently was 0-4 playing me, or pitched poorly, I steer clear.

It's not a perfect system, especially if the guy played in the NL (I'm in the AL), but it helps.

You base your FA decisions on samples of 20-30 AB in a particular park? That doesn't seem much different than basing your lineups on ST results.

It's not the only thing I look at.

But if a guy with good ratings is something like 4-26 with no power against me, or got bombed on consecutive starts, it's something I think about, especially if there is a similar player with a more successful track record in my home park.

I used this strategy before trading for a guy at the trading deadline two seasons ago, and also for a FA I wanted the following off-season. Both guys have worked out well.

Quote: Originally posted by sanderbear on 1/11/2010I have found that there are guys who succeed before I have them and after I have them, but who cannot hit or pitch with Honolulu as their home park. As a result, before I sign a major FA or make a trade for a major guy, I try to find how he did when playing at my home park. If the guy consistently was 0-4 playing me, or pitched poorly, I steer clear. It's not a perfect system, especially if the guy played in the NL (I'm in the AL), but it helps.

It is not a perfect system, in fact it's a horrible one