Anyone else notice a variation like this?

Last season I was in the top 3 nationally in 3 pt% in D-II Naismith with basically the exact same guards, yet this year I'm shooting around 20% and my best 3 pt. shooter ratings wise is down around 20%, not a big difference in the way teams are playing me either nor a big SOS difference.

Hard to figure out.

That's rather extreme. Glad I'm not you!

I wouldn't say it is your team not shooting well. It is basically just Arnott. He has taken a large portion of your team's 3-pointers. If you look at the rest of your team, they seem fine.

Arnott probably overperformed last year (43% from 3s) and is highly underperforming this year (20% from 3s). But it is only based on 49 attempts, so a little hot streak will get him back in reasonable range. Maybe he is chucking up too many.

The dreaded senior slump. I wouldn't expect Arnott to improve.

Quote: Originally posted by simpleton on 1/28/2010The dreaded senior slump. I wouldn't expect Arnott to improve.

His senior is taking the highest # of shots and probably has the highest distro as well. I would be double teaming him every game all game with no other thoughts.

Otherwise he probably is drawing the toughest defenders as well. I would bet this has more to do with it than him being a senior.

It could just be a tougher schedule this season. Also like hbmerlin said it's only 49 attempts, it's a relatively small sample. I wouldn't worry about it too much, he'll turn things around once he does you 3pt shooting will be improved, maybe not to the level it was last season but improved nonetheless.

Quote: Originally Posted By hbmerlin on 1/28/2010
I wouldn't say it is your team not shooting well. It is basically just Arnott. He has taken a large portion of your team's 3-pointers. If you look at the rest of your team, they seem fine.

Arnott probably overperformed last year (43% from 3s) and is highly underperforming this year (20% from 3s). But it is only based on 49 attempts, so a little hot streak will get him back in reasonable range. Maybe he is chucking up too many.

I'd agree generally based on Arnott taking the most 3's by far. However, all the other players are also down about 10% from their last season as well, even with the sample sizes being small, that's still a bit baffling. We'll see how it shakes out in conference play.



Thanks for all the input guys.

Quote: Originally Posted By schroedess26 on 1/28/2010

Quote: Originally posted by simpleton on 1/28/2010
The dreaded senior slump. I wouldn't expect Arnott to improve.

His senior is taking the highest # of shots and probably has the highest distro as well. I would be double teaming him every game all game with no other thoughts.

Otherwise he probably is drawing the toughest defenders as well. I would bet this has more to do with it than him being a senior.

I would totally disagree w. this analysis, except for the last part about it not being because he's a senior.

He's taking less than two shots per game than the other four starters and the sixth man. That's not significant, certainly not nearly enough where it would indicate that he's got a hugely high distro that's killing his percentage, and certainly not enough where I'd even consider a DT. (He has six players averaging 7.8 to 9.0 ppg ... that's pretty much the definition of when not to DT.)

There's also nothing indicating he's drawing tougher defenders (the quick check I did didn't show even one team that switched over a better defender to cover him, plus that would only really matter in m2m, plus it doesn't matter that much anyway).

Small sample size is certainly a big factor. So is a tough sked (10 sos). And the 43% from 3pt last season was too high.

Either check arnott 3pt frequency do you have it at a plus +2 cut it down 1 from where you have it or you can try to start viviano at SF one game since he's shooting 45% from three if you want more scoring out of the 3 hole he might help. But i think your sos is carrying down arnott shooting a little bit.

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I've had his 3pt at -1 most of the season, 0 for some games.

Quote: Originally posted by piratesfan23 on 1/28/2010Either check arnott 3pt frequency do you have it at a plus +2 cut it down 1 from where you have it or you can try to start viviano at SF one game since he's shooting 45% from three if you want more scoring out of the 3 hole he might help. But i think your sos is carrying down arnott shooting a little bit.

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I don't know about last year, but looking at your schedule, seven out of ten teams look like they play primarily a man defense, or at least a man press. In those it woudl first be heavily dependent on individual defenders and also Man is supposed to be tougher to get threes against. If you faced significantly more zone and or press teams last year and more m2m teams this year, that coudl account for some?

Keep in mind that sometimes player stats will look mediocre during OOC play, when player-coached teams are normally facing tough player-coached opposition.

However the numbers should tend to improve when you reach conference play and tend to play vs. a high # of weaker, SimAI teams.