How good will this guy be? Topic

Interesting SP prospect...conservatively, he projects to something like 55/50/70 ctrl/splits. 95/80/85/55 pitches, 90 velocity, 60 GB/FB, 90/30 sta/dur.
2/1/2010 3:00 PM
He'll be awesome. Give him 5/100.
2/1/2010 3:04 PM
too bad he's already mine!

i'm trying to figure out if i care to trade him or not. seeing that he's gonna be good for about 280 IP a year, i don't want to underestimate him because of his ctrl and vL and watch him post a sub-4 ERA on a regular basis.
2/1/2010 3:07 PM
No, don't trade him. You'll rue the day you do!!!
2/1/2010 3:11 PM
OK, in that case I will hold onto him forever and ever!
2/1/2010 3:14 PM
You'll thank me later.
2/1/2010 3:16 PM
why wait? i just overnighted you a fruit basket to show my gratitude.
2/1/2010 3:22 PM
To be somewhat serious, the 50 vL won't help, especially with a 55 CN. As you know, he'll probably fall a few points short of projections.

I'd consider using him as an RHS with a high pitch count (like 35/60), and let him be available all IP. So he can pitch 2-3 IP against an all-RH lineup, and maybe rack up 50-60 IP. In that role, he could be useful.

I think you'll find the market for him is not great, because most people will view him as a #5 SP.
2/1/2010 3:27 PM
those aren't my advance scout projections- those are my adjusted personal projections. fwiw my $12M international scouts projected him to 61/53/72 when i signed him. he's already very close to them with just one year ML experience, so he can't fall short by much and he's just as likely to exceed them. here's the guy:

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=3001072

i don't mess with RHS's, he's either gonna be a long B/spot starter or part of my rotation. i've perused a few worlds and i cannot find any SP's whose top 3 pitches add up to 260+ so it's hard to find a solid comparison.
2/1/2010 3:34 PM
the closest comp i can find is this guy:

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=3001072

he has worse P2 and P3 and significantly worse velocity. 4.06 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 711 career IP isn't too bad. it seems that pitchers with good stuff have had absurdly low HR allowed since the power update.
2/1/2010 3:38 PM
I am happier with the RHS than with the LHS. I have a very good reliever who unfortunately doesn't have a great vL.

http://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=1975258

It's the first time I've had a guy act like an RHS. If he keeps pitching well, I'm going to keep him in that role. His OAV vs. RH is .200, and vs. LH is .375 (3-8), so I'm wary about using him as a Setup-A or -B.
2/1/2010 3:41 PM
Quote: Originally Posted By deanod on 2/01/2010why wait? i just overnighted you a fruit basket to show my gratitude


That's not what he wants you to show him.
2/1/2010 5:14 PM
He could be decent in a pitchers park.
2/1/2010 5:30 PM
How good will this guy be? Topic

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