HCA is so clearly out of wack and might be the #1 thing causes all the problems.

(3 point shooting, etc)

I agree. After taking over the school, in an obvious rebuilding year for me at Louisville, I scheduled a bunch of away games expecting to go about 500, but started 1-11 Ouch. In my first big east home game I won against a decent team by ten plus points with a D hca. I was a 26 point dog for the game. I hope my team is just improving, but I feel sth is obviously wrong with hca.

I agree, I have won a game or two I had no business winning and lost a few and the only explanation is HCA.

Conference: 2-1 Home / 1-3 Road My only home loss I was a 4 point dog, but in 2 out of my 3 road losses I was -22 & -34!

Even though I lost a road game in non-conference where I was -22, I've still seen a bigger HCA in conference play. Has anyone seen the same thing...a bigger HCA in conf. games? I don't necacerilly dislike it, just different.

Not sure about the disparity in home court record--looked at the Real NCAA power conferences, 2009-2010.  The combined home court record, for conference play, ONLY, was 63%.  That doesn't take into account the usual OOC schedule--lots of teams with modest talents.  Looked at Vandy at random--they were 8-0 at home ion OOC. 

Posted by tedlukacs on 6/21/2010 10:59:00 AM (view original):
Not sure about the disparity in home court record--looked at the Real NCAA power conferences, 2009-2010.  The combined home court record, for conference play, ONLY, was 63%.  That doesn't take into account the usual OOC schedule--lots of teams with modest talents.  Looked at Vandy at random--they were 8-0 at home ion OOC. 

They adjusted down the HCA on the 6/16 update, so I would only look at games after that for deciding if HCA is too powerful or not powerful enough.

You also can't compare HCA for one team to an average for all conference games (at least not and call it an apples to apples comparison).  Kansas, Kentucky, and Duke where all undefeated at home in conference for 2009-2010 ... so if Vandy is a good team then undefeated at home in conference is normal.  If they are a bad team, then undefeated at home in conference might be abnormal.

If you wanted to look at all the games since 6/16 in HD for the power conferences and compare those results to the 63% you found from your other research, then that would be applicable.

this better be green font.

bollocks!

^Bollocks?

Posted by tedlukacs on 6/21/2010 10:59:00 AM (view original):
Not sure about the disparity in home court record--looked at the Real NCAA power conferences, 2009-2010.  The combined home court record, for conference play, ONLY, was 63%.  That doesn't take into account the usual OOC schedule--lots of teams with modest talents.  Looked at Vandy at random--they were 8-0 at home ion OOC. 

FWIW, I believe Vandy is known as being extremely tough at home.

But yeah, we need more post 6/16 data to have any real understanding of how things are working right now.

"The combined home court record, for conference play, ONLY, was 63%"

that is pretty much on par with how real college basketball is....home court advantage plays a big deal in college sports.

I certainly hope HCA has been fixed, because it has been, by far, the least comprehensible aspect of HD for many seasons running now.  There's literally no rhyme or reason for it. 

I've had 2 home/home conference series play both games since the 16th.  Against Brandeis I won by 15 in Rochester and lost by 37 on the road.  Our visible settings (tempo/defense) were the same for both games.  I defeated Washington by 15 at home and lost by 17 in St. Louis.  Slightly different defensive settings.