Why does one guy outscore another... Topic

Hey guys-- hoping someone can please explain to me why one PG on my DII team keeps consistently playing better than the other. This is not a sarcasm thread, I'd really just like to know why.

Orlando Grissett - 5.6 PPG, 2.0 APG, 3.0 TPG
Hamidi Real - 10.0 PPG, 2.8 APG, 1.8 TPG

Grissett has higher ratings in athleticism, speed, perimeter, ball handling, AND passing. They are even in Low Post (with 1). Yet Real has significantly outscored Grissett in every game so far (except one where he lost 7 to 8) despite playing only about 30 seconds more per game and coming off the bench. His passing numbers are also much better, with Grissett turning the ball over much more often than he gets an assist. They both have the same B- IQ for the motion offense I run.

Part of me feels like I should be giving a lot more minutes to Real because of the way he's been playing, but I can't find one single reason to suggest that he should be the better player. Can someone please help me out? Thanks!
6/30/2010 10:47 AM
Well, one difference is that one is a starter and the other is a backup and is probably getting quite a few junk time minutes against junk time players to let him rack up some stats.

6/30/2010 11:03 AM
Maybe Real is playing inferior competition (other backup Gs)? Or maybe his distro is relatively higher than other 2nd team players (both players could be set at the same distro, but if other starters are set higher than the other backups, then Real could get more shots)?
6/30/2010 11:05 AM
Part of the situation could stem from the defenders each is encountering. The drop-off from first to second string defender could, on average, be greater than the drop-off, if any, between Grissett and Real, so Real could be reaping the advantages of a greater talent disparity between himself and the players guarding him than exists between Grissett and the opposing starter.

How are the distributions set when each is on the floor? Even if they're set at the same number, the proportion might differ when each is on the floor because of changes in distribution numbers of other players that typically are on the floor at the same time. 

That said, I know where you're coming from. I've had the same situation with Player A out-performing Player B game after game despite there being no seeming rationale for why that should be the case. When in doubt, switch them up and see if Player A continues to do better when placed in a starting role.
6/30/2010 11:11 AM
Both good points. The thing about playing garbage time is that these two guys are virtually the only PGs I play (they average 37 minutes combined, and Real actually averages slightly more than Grissett). So it's true that Real will get time against backups, but he should also have a decent amount of time against starters. The distro is a good argument as well, but right now Real's distro is set to 8 while Grissett's is at 15. My 4 other first-stringers have a combined distro of 46, while my other 2nd stringers have a combined distro of about 35, so that could have something to do with it, but all of Real's percentages are also much better, plus this doesn't really explain the A/TO difference.

I guess the bottom line is, would vets reccomend that I keep starting Grissett despite this wild divergence in statistics?
6/30/2010 11:15 AM
It is also comparative distro:  Real spends more total time playing WITH as well as against, backups, right?  What are the distros of those backups?  Because distribution is relative to the other players on the floor.

6/30/2010 11:17 AM
Seems to me to revolve around opponents. Real is probably playing against inferior guards. He only have 5 more shot attempts but is going to the FT line much more often and has hit some 3s. Garrett is not getting to the FT lien and not hitting 3s b/c he is probably going up against relatively better defenders. Both have poor PER ratings and I would probably limit the amount of 3s they are currently taking and try to drive more.
6/30/2010 12:19 PM
Why does one guy outscore another... Topic

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