GB rates affecting HR rates Topic

Do or should GB ratio affect homerun rates?

I'd like to think yes, but when viewing Pitching stats for Away games and comparing GB rates vs homeruns given up, I'm not convinced GB ratio (not rating) makes for lower numbers of homers given up.

Anyone have any thoughts or research to share on this?    
8/20/2010 8:31 PM
I think yes too. I've had guys with 90 GB/FB give up a few home runs and a few give up more than I think they should. But overall I think it does. It's one of my key ratings I look at to determine if they're worth signing.
8/20/2010 9:14 PM
Mitch, the OP is asking about "GB ratio (not rating)".

Wish I could answer more, but I've honestly never looked at GB ratio for anything other than random curiosity so haven't done any calculations with it or based on decisions in it.
8/21/2010 9:19 AM
Here's the #'s for a full season.  Homeruns are based off away games to remove park effects as much as possible.  HR/FB are supposedly based on luck, but you can see that clearly leading in GB % by 10% over the worst GB % team can still lead to giving up a higher % of HR/BIP (balls in play, ie minus strikeouts and walks).

The 3rd best team at keeping balls on the ground is the 2nd worst at keeping the ball in the park (clearly due to the highest HR/FB).

Overall you'd expect the #1 team in GB% to be 10% better than the #32 team, instead they're nearly 10% worse (in HR/BIP).

This could easily be because of sample size, but... is it?  (or am I doing something wrong?)


 GB % Rank  GB % % HR/FB HR/BIP HR/H
                          9 55.9% 8.1% 3.5% 12.5%
                       17 54.1% 7.9% 3.6% 12.2%
                       21 53.7% 8.0% 3.7% 11.5%
                          5 56.1% 8.9% 3.9% 13.3%
                          2 58.5% 9.6% 4.0% 12.0%
                       12 54.5% 8.8% 4.0% 14.0%
                       14 54.5% 8.8% 4.0% 12.4%
                       13 54.5% 9.1% 4.1% 13.1%
                       26 52.6% 8.8% 4.2% 14.2%
                          6 55.9% 9.4% 4.2% 13.0%
                       22 53.7% 9.0% 4.2% 12.7%
                       23 52.8% 8.9% 4.2% 12.5%
                       32 51.2% 8.6% 4.2% 14.8%
                       10 55.4% 9.4% 4.2% 12.6%
                       24 52.8% 8.9% 4.2% 13.3%
                       19 53.9% 9.2% 4.2% 14.0%
                       25 52.8% 9.3% 4.4% 14.8%
                          7 55.9% 10.0% 4.4% 14.3%
 Avg  54.3% 9.6% 4.4% 14.0%
                       20 53.9% 9.6% 4.4% 13.1%
                       31 51.9% 9.3% 4.5% 13.7%
                       28 52.4% 9.5% 4.5% 14.2%
                          1 61.7% 11.9% 4.6% 15.0%
                       30 51.9% 9.6% 4.6% 15.2%
                          4 56.5% 10.7% 4.7% 14.8%
                       11 54.8% 10.4% 4.7% 15.5%
                       18 53.9% 10.4% 4.8% 14.6%
                       15 54.3% 10.9% 5.0% 16.0%
                       16 54.3% 11.0% 5.0% 15.4%
                          8 55.9% 11.5% 5.1% 15.1%
                       29 52.2% 10.9% 5.2% 17.3%
                          3 56.7% 12.4% 5.3% 17.0%
                       27 52.4% 11.3% 5.4% 15.6%
8/21/2010 7:56 PM (edited)

spud-- (1)  do we know if WIS calculates GB% as percent of all balls in play, or outs? 

(2)-- what's the correlation between GB% and HR/HIT?  I know that sounds like a stupid question, but I think there are a few pieces of evidence that the sim determines hit/out before type of hit or type of out (including HR), and if that's the case GB% (if it's % of outs that are GB) might be correlated with HR/HIT.

8/21/2010 3:09 PM
#1 - No I don't personally, but it *should* stay constant regardless.  It would just lead to a smaller sample size.

#2 - Virtually none, updated table above to include HR/Hit.

I wonder too if GB rating is ignored in cases of hits, because from 1 season worth of data, there's no reason to think GB rating lowers homerun rates.
8/21/2010 7:55 PM
GB rates affecting HR rates Topic

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