Ok, 2 questions both hypothetical

A. Lets say Team A has 20m in HS scouting and Team B has 1m in HS scouting.  They both see the same guy but Team A has him projected as 85 overall and Team B has him at 65.  Team B drafts him, does he show up as an 85 once he signs?

B. Not really a draft question, if Team A has a player projected as a 90 contact and Team B has a player as a 70 contact, both have the same in adv scouting, if player X is on Team B, can he go OVER 70 contact AND/OR if he trades him to team A would his projection stay at 90 and could it get that high

A: depends on his advanced scouting, but if it's greater than 1, his projections after signing him will be more accurate than before.

B: while it's probably unlikely that a player would differ 20 points in a single rating for two teams that have the same advanced scouting (but I'll play along with the hypothetical situation), projected ratings have nothing to do with the actual ratings the player will eventually reach.  They are simply an estimation with varying accuracy based on your budget.  It's kind of like predicting the weather.  If I spend $50,000,000 on meteorologic equipment and you stick your head out the window, we can both come up with projections of what we think will happen tomorrow.  What the weather will actually be has nothing to do with my equipment or yours, but the accuracy of my projected outcome should be much greater.

To add to that, the ratings a player eventually reaches depends on so many factors.  Playing time, promotions/demotions, level of success, coaching, injuries, and makeup can all affect where a player ends up.  I don't know if this is reality, but I take the projected ratings with a good budget as a "best-case scenario".  I typically, however, zero out my advanced scouting and use that money towards other areas.  I only trade for players that I've previously scouted with sufficient budgets either through the draft or as an IFA (and have saved in a spreadsheet) or for players that have nearly come to the end of their development.

Hmmm, still not sure about the first one, I mean all things equal in all scenerios.  Also I understand they are best case scenario, the question is can a players projections change so much from team to team that they could be exceeded on one team

Posted by orrdc on 8/21/2010 6:42:00 AM (view original):
Hmmm, still not sure about the first one, I mean all things equal in all scenerios.  Also I understand they are best case scenario, the question is can a players projections change so much from team to team that they could be exceeded on one team

To clarify the previous answer.  After the player has signed, projections are determined solely by advanced scouting.  College/HS scouting is no longer used as the basis of projections.

Also, I believe that two teams with the same advanced scouting budget will see the exact same projections for a player.  Can't completely proove that without sharing projected ratings with other owners, which is generally frowned upon as collusive.  But, if true, makes your question moot.

Finally, projections are not necessarily a "best case scenario".  There are underlying "true projections" which would be the best case with full and proper development, but advanced scouting will distort these projections on both the high side and the low side.  The lower the AS budget, the more distortion you will experience.  My observation is that the distortion generally tends to be on the high side, making players look better than they actually may become, but sometimes the distortion will undervalue a players potential as well.

What you see as projected ratings do not impact what the player's actual projected ratings are.  Every player has an actual projected rating, behind the scenes, that I guess you can think of as a "best case scenario".  You don't get to see this.  You get to see a variation of the actual, and how much it varies will depend on how much scouting budget you have.  A higher budget has a higher probability of seeing a more accurate projection.

A player's TRUE projection does not change from team to team.  The only thing that changes is the projection that is seen.  So it's the same player with the same potential no matter who drafts him and how much they spend on scouting.

This kind of brings me too another question.  Just thinking out loud here, but if you have the #1 or 2 pick in the draft, would you be able to get away with not putting much into scouting period?  Because at that #1 most likely your going to get a stud and you should be able to figure out who one of the studs are.  Of course I think where it would hurt you most would be the picks later on in the draft

HS and College scouting, in addition to accurate projections, also affects how many prospects you see.  So if you put 0 in those budgets, there's a good chance you're not going to see those top prospects.

I realize its a crapshoot, but just making a point because I had 6m in Col and I saw 2 of the top 3 stud Col players and would of known right away they were top 5 players (which they went 1-2).  I realize its a % game, yada yada, just wondering if you could sneak by with that

It might work sometimes, but more likely than not it will bite you in the *** and you'll be screwed. 

Not worth the risk unless you just don't care to build from the draft.