I have a trade pending for a 20 y.o. SS whose current defensive ratings are all in the high 70's. His current owner has him starting in the ML. I have a good defensive SS and adequate BU and currently contending for the playoffs. I would prefer to put this kid in AAA for at least 1, probably 2, more years. Will he get a demotion penalty if i assign him to AAA? Since he is already there should I just grin and bear it while he develops in the ML?

He'll take a demotion penalty, but the severity of the penalty depends on his makeup.  If he's got high makeup (80+), I'd probably put him in AAA and save the ML service time.

Posted by mhulshult on 9/13/2010 11:46:00 PM (view original):
He'll take a demotion penalty, but the severity of the penalty depends on his makeup.  If he's got high makeup (80+), I'd probably put him in AAA and save the ML service time.

He'll *risk* a demotion penalty. It's not guaranteed that he gets one.

And, with defensive ratings all in the high 70s, he'll kill you as a ML SS in the meantime.

Both of the above posts are incorrect. He is not at risk for a demotion penalty if he is assigned to the minors directly after the trade. If he is first assigned to the majors and then demoted to the minors, he will be at risk for a demotion penalty.

Once the trade is processed and he is awaiting assignment, immediately assign him to the minors.

No, I'm pretty sure you risk a demotion penalty.  It helps to have a high patience in these cases.

Posted by rebelt on 9/14/2010 1:45:00 AM (view original):
Both of the above posts are incorrect. He is not at risk for a demotion penalty if he is assigned to the minors directly after the trade. If he is first assigned to the majors and then demoted to the minors, he will be at risk for a demotion penalty.

Once the trade is processed and he is awaiting assignment, immediately assign him to the minors.

Despite the authoritative tone of this response, rebelt is simply wrong.

My response is based on my own experience where I've had a player receive a demotion penalty, as well as ticket responses.

Again, this is not to say you *will* get a demotion penalty, so please don't waste your breath with "I assigned Player X and he didn't get any penalty" as if that logically proves anything with respect to the *risk* you take when assigning a player received in a trade to a lower level than he was playing at for his previous franchise.

I took the "risk" and assigned him to AAA. He has an 83 MU and for whatever reason he didn't get a penalty. Thanks for the advice. Since he is only 20, if I keep him playing at the AAA level & barring some severe injury, can I assume those high 70's will turn into high 80's in a couple years?

Posted by dlmose on 9/14/2010 6:37:00 AM (view original):
I took the "risk" and assigned him to AAA. He has an 83 MU and for whatever reason he didn't get a penalty. Thanks for the advice. Since he is only 20, if I keep him playing at the AAA level & barring some severe injury, can I assume those high 70's will turn into high 80's in a couple years?

You have only two franchises, and only one of those two franchises has a AAA player listed as SS who is 20 years old. That player is Pablo Mateo. He has an 82 makeup, and the following defensive ratings - 

Range - 78
Glove - 67
Arm Strength - 76
Arm Accuracy - 68

Based on his improvement to date, I would estimate the likelihood of his reaching the 80-85-85-85 rec's as somewhere between zero and two percent... and I'd lean heavily towards the zero. He should eventually, however, be an above average defensive 3B.

Guess I'm blind, or maybe my memory is worse than my wife says it is as I sure thought those were 78-77-76-78. Not my first screw up around  here.
But it does bring up another thing I have been wondering about. I just took over an abandoned  team the last 30 games of last season. It had been on auto for over a month and is in really bad shape. The world has just rolled over & I realize "projections" are pretty useless. The last owner only had 6 mil in all scouting so I was limited to 10 for all scouting anyway. I wanted to save the 10 mil Adv. Scout bucks but I didn't think I saw any other help in selecting players. I'm curious how you "project" based on "improvement to date". Mateo has played less than 2 full seasons and his defense improved:  74 to 78, 59-67, 73-76, 60-68. His hitting stats improved 5 to 7 points as well. That looks like pretty significant improvement for a 20 y.o.  to me.  What do you look for? What drives when improvement peaks?

Ratings climb in a predictable, but non-linear, manner.  A player sees his greatest improvements in his first 1-3 seasons.  After that, it's relatively minor 1-2 point bumps.  After about his 5th season, you don't see much of anything.

Hate to nit pick but is a "season" calendar or games? Pablo has only played a 176 games, 3 in his 1st year,  99 the 2nd, 74 this year. Is that 3 seasons or 1? Seems like a pretty short development life if he is only going to improve zero to 2 %, which would put  him at 80/68/78/69. It does give me a good base to monitor. Thanks to all for the info, I need all I can get my hands on.

z said his likelihood of reaching the def. recs for ss (80-85-85-85) as between 0 and 2%.  He'll still gain lots of points, depending on playing time and coaching... but maybe not 20-ish points on glove, you know?

And what I said is a general rule of thumb, but it's based on seasons as shown on a player's card.

Games played will help, since playing time (AB/IP) are generally accepted to be one of the biggest contributors to improvement.

Major injuries, or wild mis-management can screw with patterns, but I'm talking in generalities.