question about ballpark effect Topic

doitagain
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Hi,

I'm brand new at HBD and have a question regarding ballpark effect.

what is the difference in terms of results for a ball park of +4 for both RF and LF versus a ball park of -4 in those departments?

so if a hitter hits 30 HRs in a neutral setting, what does +4 or -4 in LF/RF do to his number over the course of a season?

thanks for any advice!
9/30/2010 10:31 PM
jonas1102
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+4 means he'll hit more, -4 means he'll hit less. Of course, he could have a down year in a +4 and hit less than 30 when you would expect more, or have an up year in a -4 and hit more than 30.
9/30/2010 10:52 PM
MikeT23
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It's hard to put a number on it because there are so many factors involved.   IIRC, someone put together a bunch of seasons and determined it was about 8% more or less for each point.    Not sure how accurate that is but I wouldn't be surprised if that was a good starting point.   30 homers becomes 21 or 39.  
10/1/2010 8:43 AM
Crump123
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Posted by MikeT23 on 10/1/2010 8:43:00 AM (view original):
It's hard to put a number on it because there are so many factors involved.   IIRC, someone put together a bunch of seasons and determined it was about 8% more or less for each point.    Not sure how accurate that is but I wouldn't be surprised if that was a good starting point.   30 homers becomes 21 or 39.  
SLB was 5-10% and i think they ported them directly for HBD. In terms of run production look at the difference in the 1.000 value, that'll be pretty accurate in determining the difference in overall run production between the two.
10/1/2010 9:25 AM
doitagain
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I see, so 5-10% is actually not so significant.  I would have guessed that the difference between +4 and -4 would be a lot more.
10/1/2010 9:43 AM
Crump123
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Posted by doitagain on 10/1/2010 9:43:00 AM (view original):
I see, so 5-10% is actually not so significant.  I would have guessed that the difference between +4 and -4 would be a lot more.
5-10% per point, so Mike's 8% is probably pretty good for a single digit. That said it only changes distributions of hits for the most part (the 1B number is changes to total hits not singles).

If you want to see how it'll affect your team the numeric park factor  i.e. 1.000  is the way to go, much more accurate.
10/1/2010 10:00 AM
taz21
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Posted by doitagain on 10/1/2010 9:43:00 AM (view original):
I see, so 5-10% is actually not so significant.  I would have guessed that the difference between +4 and -4 would be a lot more.
I think that's 5-10% for each point (ie an extra 5-10% for a +1, an extra 10-20% for a +2, etc...)  To me that is very significant.
10/1/2010 10:01 AM
Crump123
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I would also say if you are new to the game go with neutral-ish parks, so at least you get value for every player.

Extreme parks can easily neuter all your best players if you're not careful, ive seen it happen to experienced owners, and in a game with a limited player pool you can't always guarantee you'll get the players you need to make an extreme park favourable to your team.
10/1/2010 10:10 AM
MikeT23
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Posted by doitagain on 10/1/2010 9:43:00 AM (view original):
I see, so 5-10% is actually not so significant.  I would have guessed that the difference between +4 and -4 would be a lot more.

Really?   If it's 8% per point, the difference between +4 and -4 is 18 homers if the base is 30.  That seems rather significant to me.

10/1/2010 10:16 AM
mhulshult
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To be clear, doitagain, the assumed 8% is not an the difference when going from -4 to +4.  It's an 8% difference going from -4 to -3, another 8% going from -3 to -2, and so on.  
10/1/2010 10:19 AM
doitagain
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oh I see.  I missed the "per point" part.  Going from -4 to +4 is very significant!  LOL

Thanks everyone for chipping in!
10/1/2010 5:15 PM
doitagain
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so 1B is changes to total hits?  I thought it was singles.  

is 2B and 3B doubles and triples respectively?

LF/RF is hits to leftfield/rightfield or HR to LF/RF?  

so if my ballpark is 0, -2, 0, -4, -4, that means what?  
10/1/2010 5:17 PM
shobob
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Posted by Crump123 on 10/1/2010 10:00:00 AM (view original):
Posted by doitagain on 10/1/2010 9:43:00 AM (view original):
I see, so 5-10% is actually not so significant.  I would have guessed that the difference between +4 and -4 would be a lot more.
5-10% per point, so Mike's 8% is probably pretty good for a single digit. That said it only changes distributions of hits for the most part (the 1B number is changes to total hits not singles).

If you want to see how it'll affect your team the numeric park factor  i.e. 1.000  is the way to go, much more accurate.
Could you please refer me to where it says that the 1B number represents total hits?  I always assumed it meant singles.
10/1/2010 6:17 PM
palpatine242
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Does park factor affect all hitters in the same proportion?  I would think that a hitter with 100 power would still be able to easily hit it out of a stadium with a -4 -4 HR park factor, so his number of HRs would only go down slightly.  But a hitter with 40 power would have an extremely hard time hitting it out of the -4 -4 HR park, so his HRs would decrease by a greater proportion than the 100 power hitter.  So say HRs of the average hitter (60 power) decrease by 20% in a -4 -4 HR park, then would a 100 power hitter decrease his HRs only by 10% and a 40 power hitter decrease his HRs by 30%?  On a related note, do the balls that would be HRs in a 0 0 HR park but are not HRs in a -4 -4 HR park have a chance to be caught by outfielders due to ++ plays?  Or do they automatically become singles, doubles, and triples?
10/25/2010 10:11 PM
question about ballpark effect Topic
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