A+ Prestige Team, A- Rep Coach	B+ Prestige Team, A+ Rep Coach
3 coach calls	10 coach calls
7 letters	12 letters
1 SV	12 SVs
6 HVs	3 HVs
1 CV	1 CV
Start+25 Min	Start + 15 Min

As the A+ team, I feel like I probably should have this guy, but it looks like either Scouting visits are worth way more than I thought, Reputation plays a much bigger part in recruiting than I thought, or A+ isn't that much better than B+.  If anyone can shed some light on why I lost for me, that would be greatly appreciated.

From my experience I don't think prestige plays quite as big a role as most people think. I've recruiting nearly as good teams with a C prestige in D3 as I have with an A. Same goes for Reputation....once dropped enough players when taking over a team that my reputation picture had a logo of a guy drinking liquor, but was still able to recruit a good class with no problems. Your 3 extras HVs and +10 more min in playing time are pretty significant. I don't think the coach calls and letters on his side were worth a whole lot, but the 12 SVs had to be what did it. This was probably very close. Maybe if he only went with 10 SVs you take this one down.

at what cycle after signings started did the kid finally decide?  The 10am (CST) cycle the morning after?  Just trying to get a handle on how close this was

i am curious to know how much reputation is worth also, i just cut a player to sign another one and my rep dropped from A to B

Posted by jdno on 10/31/2010 8:04:00 PM (view original):
at what cycle after signings started did the kid finally decide?  The 10am (CST) cycle the morning after?  Just trying to get a handle on how close this was

8 PM (EST) cycle a day after signings, but effort was still being continuously put in until the 2 PM cycle.

Who had distance advantage?  (ie: Was kid desiring local or away?)
Who offered the scholarship first and how many cycles before?  The scholarship credit matters a little bit.

I was slightly closer, like 140 miles to 160 miles or something like that, so I'm pretty sure that had no impact.  I'm pretty sure we both offered the scholarship on the same cycle.

I'm the other, triumphant coach. Neither of us had a distance advantage. He signed two cycles after the last CV - I put a spending freeze on him between the last of the 10/29 calls and the 10/30 CV.  Both of us (I believe) were pretty confident we were ahead nearly the whole way.  TK is a better recruiter than I, perhaps because I'm tentative to use HVs until I'm sure the kid will answer the door and not waste my money.  At any rate, I came out ahead this time, but now I'm open to 4 years of ridicule if the kid doesn't produce.

10/30/2010	campus visit	$819
10/29/2010	call current coach	$10
10/29/2010	letter	$15
10/29/2010	phone call	$10
10/29/2010	call current coach	$10
10/29/2010	letter	$15
10/29/2010	phone call	$10
10/29/2010	call current coach	$10
10/29/2010	letter	$15
10/29/2010	phone call	$10
10/28/2010	call current coach	$10
10/28/2010	letter	$15
10/28/2010	phone call	$10
10/28/2010	call current coach	$10
10/28/2010	phone call	$10
10/28/2010	guaranteed starting spot	$10
10/28/2010	call current coach	$10
10/28/2010	letter	$15
10/28/2010	phone call	$10
10/28/2010	call current coach	$10
10/28/2010	guaranteed minutes - (15)	$10
10/28/2010	letter	$15
10/28/2010	phone call	$10
10/28/2010	call current coach	$10
10/28/2010	letter	$15
10/28/2010	phone call	$10
10/28/2010	call current coach	$10
10/28/2010	phone call	$10
10/28/2010	home visit	$331
10/28/2010	call current coach	$10
10/28/2010	campus visit	$819
10/27/2010	call current coach	$10
10/27/2010	letter	$15
10/27/2010	phone call	$10
10/27/2010	home visit	$331
10/27/2010	scouting trips - (2)	$362
10/27/2010	scholarship offer	$100
10/27/2010	scouting trips - (10)	$1,810
10/27/2010	phone call	$10
	Total	$4,932

Am I the only one who thinks the value of prestige is different at D3 and D1?  At D1, I think the A+ team would have won for sure. 

Posted by reinsel on 10/31/2010 11:26:00 PM (view original):
Am I the only one who thinks the value of prestige is different at D3 and D1?  At D1, I think the A+ team would have won for sure. 

I agree

This is an interesting case imo.  Either it's what reinsel just mentioned about relative prestiges not meaning as much in D3 vs. D1, or it comes down to the value of evals or a coach's reputation, which hasn't gotten much historical attention on the forums b/c most coaches simply have unblemished reputations that cancel one another out. 

Below I've linked to a forum topic that got quite long about a year ago.  It had to do with a D2 battle I got into with wronoj and thought I'd have the upper hand.  A lot of vet coaches basically told me that evals beyond those necessary to pull a kid down are pretty useless and the money is better spent on HVs/CVs at that point.  Something still doesn't seem right to me about that, but nevertheless, in this case here, Pumphead's 12 evals come from pulling the kid down, so it doesn't look like he traded HVs/CVs for evals like I may have in my case study...but long story short, I'm rather surprised tkimble didn't win this battle. 

So to me, either reinsel is spot on -- though this still wouldn't explain how pump won it imo, given he was 3 HVs short and a full letter grade in prestige short -- or the reputation factor is very large.

Here's the old thread from a year ago I mentioned:  http://whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=398845&page=1

When did this player begin to consider each team? Was it in the same cycle or was he considering the winning team first?

I have also heard that it is about the effort put into a recruit on top of everything else. It would appear to me that pumphead put more "effort" it this guy that tkimble did.

just a couple of observations.

Hmmmm pump in your sitemail you said 3 HVs and 1 CV, but in that history it looks like 2 HVs and 2 CVs.  So let's do some math...
Working with these general assumptions: 1 CV=2.5 HV  Start=2 HV  Every 5 min increment= 1/2 HV, SV=1/10 HV, and taking a VERY conservative multiplier from A+ to B+ we'll make it 1.5.  I won't take into consideration the calls and such because I feel the have miniscule amount of value and an inordinate of calls/letters were not placed.

Pump's efforts in terms of HVs:
2 HVs=2
12 SVs=1.2
2 CVs=5
Start=2
15 min=1.5

Total:11.7

My efforts in terms of HVs:
6 HVs=9
1 SV=.15
1 CV=3.75
Start= 3
25 Min=2.5

Total: 18.4

So either some of those assumptions are WAYYYY off (I don't believe they are), the 11 calls+10 coach calls+8 letters account for more than 7 HVs, or my A- reputation has a ridiculously huge effect.  Anyway, I am still trying to figure it out.  A little bitter because I lost the guy (not a program changer and I only spent about a little more than 3k on the guy, so I'm not devasted), but more just puzzled.  I sent in a ticket, so we'll see what they say.  

I think SVs are more valuable than what you have them down for. Still less than a home visit of course, but I think a little more than .15. I know i've heard a few coaches who have had alot of success in HD say they are great for recruiting, and not just for pulldowns.

Posted by tkimble on 11/1/2010 12:23:00 AM (view original):
Hmmmm pump in your sitemail you said 3 HVs and 1 CV, but in that history it looks like 2 HVs and 2 CVs.  So let's do some math...
Working with these general assumptions: 1 CV=2.5 HV  Start=2 HV  Every 5 min increment= 1/2 HV, SV=1/10 HV, and taking a VERY conservative multiplier from A+ to B+ we'll make it 1.5.  I won't take into consideration the calls and such because I feel the have miniscule amount of value and an inordinate of calls/letters were not placed.

Pump's efforts in terms of HVs:
2 HVs=2
12 SVs=1.2
2 CVs=5
Start=2
15 min=1.5

Total:11.7

My efforts in terms of HVs:
6 HVs=9
1 SV=.15
1 CV=3.75
Start= 3
25 Min=2.5

Total: 18.4

So either some of those assumptions are WAYYYY off (I don't believe they are), the 11 calls+10 coach calls+8 letters account for more than 7 HVs, or my A- reputation has a ridiculously huge effect.  Anyway, I am still trying to figure it out.  A little bitter because I lost the guy (not a program changer and I only spent about a little more than 3k on the guy, so I'm not devasted), but more just puzzled.  I sent in a ticket, so we'll see what they say.  

as you put it, some of those assumptions are WAYYYY off  :)

someone mentioned they didn't think prestige was the same in d1 and d3. this is very much true, and its not even close. i didn't realize people thought it was possible that it was the same, but its not even remotely so.

so, your assumption that a+ to b+ is very conservatively 1.5 is the one that is killing your calculation so extremely. its dramatically lower than that. prestige in d2 and d3 is the same, i think, and in both cases, its not a very big deterrent at all.

also, your valuation of evals is significantly off.