maybe i'm not being creative enough, but aside from running slow down (which you mentioned), I'd stick to your strengths and pay attention to the superior teams weaknesses. these are some pertinent questions to me:
- when you pulled off your best couple wins of the season, what worked well?
- when your opponent lost previously, how were they exploited i.e. who is the weakest defender, and can you put your best offensive player in that spot? or do they have an especially slow player who can't defend the perimeter?
- what are your opponents tendencies? some coaches tend to be remarkably predictable
- does your opponent have goofy end of game settings you can expose? (this happens more often than you'd think)
when my team is just so-so, i'll tinker with the lineup and have a few different ones depending on the type of team i'm playing. if i have a strong team and my opponent is still better, i'll probably stick with the lineup that's obviously working and adjust my distribution and defensive settings to something that gives me the best chance to win.
lastly, i don't think going extreme is more likely to give you a victory UNLESS your opponent's tendencies dictate you do so.