Trying to determine which pitcher would be the best:

Pitcher 1, 18 years old, Looking to sign. will sign for slot money
Projections: 77(OVR) , 62(STA), 84(CTRL), 86/78 (VS. L/R), 23 (VEL), 36 (GB/FB), 83/74/76/54/67 (PITCH RATINGS)

or

Pitcher 2, 18 years old, Looking to be drafted in the first 5 rounds.  If not, he'll probably accept a scholarship to play DI baseball.
Projections: 83 (OVR), 82 (STA), 98 (CNTRL), 71/79 (VS. L/R), 33 (VEL), 94 (GB/FB), 76/79/56/55/27 (PITCH RATINGS)

Your input would be greatly appreciated.

I'd go with #2 100% of the time.  The control and Gb/Fb ratio are what seal it for me.  His splits aren't much worse than option #1, and his pitches are good enough to be very effective.  There is a similar pitcher in one of my worlds, Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Clyde Ford, who has been just an absolute beast and his GB/FB isn't what your prospect would be projected to attain, and his pitches are worse. 

There a couple concerns with pitcher #2:
1) his signability. You know he's gonna ask for more cash.
2) pitcher #1 splits are better and has 3 good pitches vs. 2 pitches.

Health, makeup and durability ratings for these two players?

Based on what you've presented, I'd probably lean more towards #2.  More because of the higher stamina; he's more likely to give you more innings unless there's a drastic difference in durability between the two.  Also, the better GB/FB rating is much more attractive.  Though I love #1's pitch ratings, that's quality stuff.

FWK +1 unless P2's DUR is <10 and P1's is > 30, and even then you're comparing a top closer to a mid-rotation SP.

Posted by benny_b_la on 11/23/2010 2:35:00 PM (view original):
There a couple concerns with pitcher #2:
1) his signability. You know he's gonna ask for more cash.
2) pitcher #1 splits are better and has 3 good pitches vs. 2 pitches.

I have actually had players with that message sign for their initial asking price more often than you would think, so that may not be a factor unless your budget is strapped, then I would go with the slot signing pick.  As for the pitches I think the Control/GB-FB more then makes up for that.

But that being said, both pitchers would look good in your minor leagues.

I'm gonna go the other way on this one - I'd prefer #1, if I can make some assumptions.

1) Both have the dur to be SP (say 22+).
2) Pitcher #1 is Left-handed.
3) Pitcher #2 is Right-handed.
4) The current ratings for the players indicate to me a good likelihood that those projections will be reached.
5) Pitcher #1 has a good health rating (80+).

It's very rare that I'd prefer the pitcher with *worse* control, but this is one case where I would, for a few reasons.

1) Lower OVR - this means he'll cost less in salary over the course of his career.
2) I expect him to be more effective for the innings he is available. Very rarely will I choose a less-effective pitcher who can eat more innings over the more-effective pitcher who can't throw as often. I build for the post-season, and in a 5- or 7-game series, I'd prefer to have #1 on the mound for me.
3) Tied into 2, the *reason* I expect #1 to be more effective, despite the lower control, is his very very good selection of pitches. #2's pitches are solid, but don't compare to #1's.
4) I remain unconvinced of the importance of GB/FB in the HBD engine. It's a nice tie-breaker, but not nearly reason enough to take a pitcher that otherwise doesn't quite stack up. In fact, given the two pitchers' GB/FB and pitch selection, I'd wouldn't be shocked to see #1allow fewer HR with the same park and D behind them both.

Pitcher #1: 28 (DUR), 100 (HLTH), 100 (MKUP)
Pitcher #2: 28 (DUR), 94 (HLTH), 82 (MKUP)

Patience?

Posted by zbrent716 on 11/23/2010 3:31:00 PM (view original):
I'm gonna go the other way on this one - I'd prefer #1, if I can make some assumptions.

1) Both have the dur to be SP (say 22+).
2) Pitcher #1 is Left-handed.
3) Pitcher #2 is Right-handed.
4) The current ratings for the players indicate to me a good likelihood that those projections will be reached.
5) Pitcher #1 has a good health rating (80+).

It's very rare that I'd prefer the pitcher with *worse* control, but this is one case where I would, for a few reasons.

1) Lower OVR - this means he'll cost less in salary over the course of his career.
2) I expect him to be more effective for the innings he is available. Very rarely will I choose a less-effective pitcher who can eat more innings over the more-effective pitcher who can't throw as often. I build for the post-season, and in a 5- or 7-game series, I'd prefer to have #1 on the mound for me.
3) Tied into 2, the *reason* I expect #1 to be more effective, despite the lower control, is his very very good selection of pitches. #2's pitches are solid, but don't compare to #1's.
4) I remain unconvinced of the importance of GB/FB in the HBD engine. It's a nice tie-breaker, but not nearly reason enough to take a pitcher that otherwise doesn't quite stack up. In fact, given the two pitchers' GB/FB and pitch selection, I'd wouldn't be shocked to see #1allow fewer HR with the same park and D behind them both.

GB/FB makes a difference, but some people severly overvalue at the expense of other ratings.

Pitcher #1: 48 (PATIENCE)
Pitcher #2: 100 (PATIENCE)

Posted by Crump123 on 11/23/2010 3:55:00 PM (view original):

Posted by zbrent716 on 11/23/2010 3:31:00 PM (view original):
I'm gonna go the other way on this one - I'd prefer #1, if I can make some assumptions.

1) Both have the dur to be SP (say 22+).
2) Pitcher #1 is Left-handed.
3) Pitcher #2 is Right-handed.
4) The current ratings for the players indicate to me a good likelihood that those projections will be reached.
5) Pitcher #1 has a good health rating (80+).

It's very rare that I'd prefer the pitcher with *worse* control, but this is one case where I would, for a few reasons.

1) Lower OVR - this means he'll cost less in salary over the course of his career.
2) I expect him to be more effective for the innings he is available. Very rarely will I choose a less-effective pitcher who can eat more innings over the more-effective pitcher who can't throw as often. I build for the post-season, and in a 5- or 7-game series, I'd prefer to have #1 on the mound for me.
3) Tied into 2, the *reason* I expect #1 to be more effective, despite the lower control, is his very very good selection of pitches. #2's pitches are solid, but don't compare to #1's.
4) I remain unconvinced of the importance of GB/FB in the HBD engine. It's a nice tie-breaker, but not nearly reason enough to take a pitcher that otherwise doesn't quite stack up. In fact, given the two pitchers' GB/FB and pitch selection, I'd wouldn't be shocked to see #1allow fewer HR with the same park and D behind them both.

GB/FB makes a difference, but some people severly overvalue at the expense of other ratings.

That's true, but the difference between a 94 and a 36 is significant. 

P1 - Projections: 77(OVR) , 62(STA), 84(CTRL), 86/78 (VS. L/R), 23 (VEL), 36 (GB/FB), 83/74/76/54/67 (PITCH RATINGS)
P2 - Projections: 83 (OVR), 82 (STA), 98 (CNTRL), 71/79 (VS. L/R), 33 (VEL), 94 (GB/FB), 76/79/56/55/27 (PITCH RATINGS)


I was going to say thatI'd go with Pitcher #2, but after further review, Id go for Pitcher #1.

Both pitchers will be successful, productive major leaguers if they reach 95% of their projections (which is the measure I use, to manage my own expectations).  Both are equally able to reach their projections, or close to it, without suffering a string of debilitating injuries.

Pitcher #1 and #2 will have a comparable vR - Advantage - draw
Pitcher #2 will have much better control - Advantage #2 by a wide margin
Pitcher #1 will have better pitches, leading to fewer homeruns*, and lower BAVG - Advantage #1
Pitcher #1 will be more effective vs Lefties - Advantage #1

* That Pitcher #2 has such a better groundball rating is encoraging, however if his pitches dont match up, he may give up more line drive hits, while pitcher one gives up fly ball outs

Really though, either one would be a very strong #3 starter, workable #2 starter

Posted by dherz_263 on 11/23/2010 4:48:00 PM (view original):
P1 - Projections: 77(OVR) , 62(STA), 84(CTRL), 86/78 (VS. L/R), 23 (VEL), 36 (GB/FB), 83/74/76/54/67 (PITCH RATINGS)
P2 - Projections: 83 (OVR), 82 (STA), 98 (CNTRL), 71/79 (VS. L/R), 33 (VEL), 94 (GB/FB), 76/79/56/55/27 (PITCH RATINGS)


I was going to say thatI'd go with Pitcher #2, but after further review, Id go for Pitcher #1.

Both pitchers will be successful, productive major leaguers if they reach 95% of their projections (which is the measure I use, to manage my own expectations).  Both are equally able to reach their projections, or close to it, without suffering a string of debilitating injuries.

Pitcher #1 and #2 will have a comparable vR - Advantage - draw
Pitcher #2 will have much better control - Advantage #2 by a wide margin
Pitcher #1 will have better pitches, leading to fewer homeruns*, and lower BAVG - Advantage #1
Pitcher #1 will be more effective vs Lefties - Advantage #1

* That Pitcher #2 has such a better groundball rating is encoraging, however if his pitches dont match up, he may give up more line drive hits, while pitcher one gives up fly ball outs

Really though, either one would be a very strong #3 starter, workable #2 starter

If they are both so close I would think the pitcher that will give you more innings would be the choice here.

Man, this is a tough decision.  Both pitchers are going to pan out to be pretty solid and all of you have  made valid points which makes it even more difficult to decide which pitcher to pick.  I'm leaning towards pitcher #2 though.