I inherited a team with 0 Adv Scouting.  I have prospects who have reached their potentials in various attributes.  Can they improve or even with a 0 budget can I conclude they have reached their potential in those areas?

I'd look at what kind of progressions they have been getting coupled with their years of service and age. 

How does advanced scouting affect the starting point for the ratings you see?  Thats the biggest thing I cant put my finger on with advanced.  Would the amount, or lack there of adv scouting dollars make a player look much better than he really is? 

Better or worse..you may see certain ratings way higher and some way lower.. A pitchers stam may be inflated a lot and the control not so much whereas it could be the opposite as well.

Posted by a_ersberg on 1/2/2011 9:33:00 PM (view original):
How does advanced scouting affect the starting point for the ratings you see?  Thats the biggest thing I cant put my finger on with advanced.  Would the amount, or lack there of adv scouting dollars make a player look much better than he really is? 

If by "starting point" you mean current ratings, then the answer is they don't. Every owner will see the same current ratings for each player regardless of scouting budgets. ADV scouting gives you a forecast of where they are headed with proper development. The more you spend on ADV scouting the more accurate your forecast of his potential ceiling should be.

Can anyone share vjm's recs and maybe some potential projection formulas?  I am interested in this aspect of the game, but have not been around long enough to have any clue how to do it on my own.

There's no magic formula.  It's almost all feel, and it's something that most people (even the biggest proponents of 0 AS) wouldn't recommend to a relative newbie.

Typically, a player sees the majority of his development in his first 1-2 years of pro ball, then some in their 3rd, and in their 4th and 5th seasons is where the "major" improvements tend to stop.  With a typical promotion schedule, that's around when you'd start considering them for a spot on the ML roster.

General example:  If you have a guy drafted at 18, getting regular promotions without any major injuries or a Diamond in the Rough event, if he's sitting at 24 years old (6th pro season) in AAA and you see 10+ points between Current and Projected, well... he's not getting anywhere close to that.

I guess it's basically a "log curve" for the nerdier types out there.......



That particular graph is a poor example since scale isn't quite right, but that's sort of how it progresses... quickly, then more slowly as time goes on.

It varies from owner to owner but, as a general rule, it's a 50% decrease until you get to one.

IOW, 10, 5, 3, 1.    But that could be 10, 7, 4, 2, 1.  Or 10, 4, 2, 1.   Playing time, promotions and coaches matter.   And, to be clear, that's just an OVERALL rating change.   Various individual ratings work a little differently.   

And, as iain said, I wouldn't recommend doing it until you've figured out YOUR development patterns.   Because I use 0 ADV, I've found that it varies greatly from owner to owner.   I also wouldn't recommend it if you plan on doing a lot of trading for prospects.   It's a bit of a pain in the *** to figure out if your trade partner does a good/poor job of developing players.   I've traded for players who only improved 5 in their first season then I got 5 more out of them in their second season.   My trade partner did a crap job of developing players. 

By the way, if akg took over an abandoned team, development patterns are likely sh*t.   Owners who abandon teams aren't really working to get their prospect to their potential.   The same can be said of owners who neglect their minors.