Just looking at some players and found this guy. Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Norberto Julio His OVR is 85, but is projected 84. I got to looking and the only thing that is different in his projection (he's 27 yrs old) is his 5th pitch. Its currently at zero, since he obviously dropped it at some point, but is projected at 31. He also obviously won't ever get to 31 since he has dropped it, but its just interesting to note that a 31 pitch has negative value apparently. I thought I'd read previously that it was somewhere in the 20's.

I'll frown upon pitches lower than 40.  Hopefully no more than one of those, and they would be either a P4 or P5.

I think it's sort of dumb that HBD doesn't allow you to tell pitchers to scrap bad pitches or learn new pitches, like they can do in real life. If a pitcher has a 5th pitch that's a 17 and clearly hinders his effectiveness, why would any pitching coach ever let him throw it?

Good pitching coaches can cause pitchers to drop a bad 5th pitch in HBD.

Posted by tecwrg on 1/3/2011 10:02:00 AM (view original):
I'll frown upon pitches lower than 40.  Hopefully no more than one of those, and they would be either a P4 or P5.

I generally agree with this. In my scouting formula, anything below 40 has a value of zero.


As for the issue of a minumum rating for a useful pitch, I think it depends on the ratings of the other pitches. If a pitcher has two pitches in the 90's, having a third pitch rated 30 probably doesn't help. If his other pitches are fairly lousy, I would think he'd be better off with a greater variety of pitches.

Just because a poor 5th pitch brings down the OVR for the pitcher doesn't mean it necessarily adversely affects his performance.

You do understand that OVR ratings are not an accurate barometer of a players effectiveness, right?

When you isolate all variables but one, it is an accurate barometer of player effectiveness.

No, it's just an indication that when a pitcher has "0" for a pitch, it is not included in their overall rating.

lol

IIRC, a DevChat told us that a 5th pitch can be effective down into the 20s.

From that, and from experience, I believe pitches are effective on a sliding scale.  A 5th pitch can be in the 20s, but a 4th pitch should be more like 40-50ish (or more) to be effective.

I don't think it's entirely linear, but it has something to do with the hitter "guessing" what is coming.

While I am not a huge proponent of PC, I would guess that a C with a higher PC would keep the P from thowing that lousy P5 too often.

Posted by torrone on 1/5/2011 1:58:00 PM (view original):
While I am not a huge proponent of PC, I would guess that a C with a higher PC would keep the P from thowing that lousy P5 too often.

It's been established for quite some time that the engine does not throw individual pitches.  PA's are resolved by crunching together all relative ratings and proceding a result.  I would assume that the number of pitches (2, 3, 4 or 5) a pitcher has is one of the factors.

I had a starter who was decent, #3 type, he had two pitches in his teens -- the third and fifth pitch. Odd to see a third pitch that low.