i got this message from a potential dropdown:

I called John Henson 10 times, left 4 messages, before he finally called me back. He's pretty sure that he's going to get an offer from a 'big time program' but we are an option for him if that falls through.

Obviously, that is the message for "you are a backup", right?

so, after not getting any follow up from him more than a day later, and being very surprised by that, i sent him a lot of visits (of the home/campus kind). he took them all and is considering me only (after considering multiple schools in the previous cycle). 

the caveat is, he is within 70 miles.  i have gotten a whole bunch of messages from guys under 70 miles, when they still appear a division higher, but are willing to talk to you - but NOT the "you are a backup call me later" type of messages you get from guys who reject HV/CV. 

am i missing something, or is something wrong?

i think there have been some subtle changes with drop downs recently... you are on to something

billyg, that's not a new phenomenon. When you have a potential dropdown who's within 70 miles, there may be a moment in time -- not sure if it's one cycle or several cycles -- where he will still appear on the list for the upper division but will be open to be recruited as though he's on your division list. For these select few it's a progression ... they start as dropdowns, for a period they move into the transitory period before they drop, and then they actually drop. Circumstances have to be just right, but it definitely happens, and I can remember it happening going back a period of years.

You are just noticing this billy? The trick always has been if you really want a drop down to send him a campus visit every cycle. He will accept it before he gives you the "I dropped" message. Pretty much he was likely about to drop to you and you timed the visits just right.

ive always thought there was a bit of an overlap (or, rather, a disconnect) between when he called you back/showed up on your list and when he would accept HVs/CVs, but i never had any real empirical evidence to back it up

and the 70 miles is the key distance.

Posted by girt25 on 1/9/2011 3:11:00 PM (view original):
billyg, that's not a new phenomenon. When you have a potential dropdown who's within 70 miles, there may be a moment in time -- not sure if it's one cycle or several cycles -- where he will still appear on the list for the upper division but will be open to be recruited as though he's on your division list. For these select few it's a progression ... they start as dropdowns, for a period they move into the transitory period before they drop, and then they actually drop. Circumstances have to be just right, but it definitely happens, and I can remember it happening going back a period of years.

i want to make sure i get this straight. i've had guys within 70 miles, who start the pool above me, who appeared the division above but would take visits from me. i've seen that a few times. but, it was always either one of 2 cases -

1) the initial message was not one of the backup option set

2) i got a phone call when the player dropped down

so i am just not sure what to make of it. are you saying there is a third case i am missing? within the 70 miles cases?

Posted by furry_nipps on 1/9/2011 5:19:00 PM (view original):
You are just noticing this billy? The trick always has been if you really want a drop down to send him a campus visit every cycle. He will accept it before he gives you the "I dropped" message. Pretty much he was likely about to drop to you and you timed the visits just right.

one reason i am skeptical is this is an unranked player, within 70 miles. a b prestige school pulled him down right away. i had a b- prestige. the advantage of the 70 miles is at least a prestige grade - i think more. so i think i should have had him drop to me around when an A prestige school would see it, and unranked players definitely drop to you by like the 2-5am cycle a few before signings.

also, a b+ school was on the same player. for your scenario to explain what i saw, i think that would imply the b+ school also pulled him down even though another guy was already on him. it just seems like a lot of unlikely, not impossible, events to me. i am almost sure this player should have dropped to me before either of them.

I don't think the 70 mile rule works like that. All it does is make some players recruitable while on the screen above, while others still says F off and others still say back up option. If it acted like some prestige advantage and made back up options drop quicker that would be news to me. It wouldn't surprise me if they both pulled him down as everyone does it now adays, but even if he dropped I would see him dropping to the B+ before you.

well, the reason i think its sort of similar to a prestige advantage of this. first off, the way dropdowns work to me at a high level is, there is a cutoff where they will talk to a school and where they wont. the schools they will barely drop to won't see them drop till the very end of recruiting. the coaches who they are very close to dropping to are the highest prestige schools who see them in the pool 1 division above. so there is sort of a sliding scale, a number of cycles each prestige grade gets a player to drop to you before another school - and with a very similar effect, more players are available to you (essentially the guys that would drop to lower prestige schools after recruiting is over, if it was longer. how much longer to me is the same # of cycles per prestige grade as the timing of dropdowns).

would you say that is accurate?

within 70 miles, it seems to me players will both talk to team with lower prestige, and, they will drop faster. i have seen those both happen a lot, but maybe its not all the time? but i also think it gives you an advantage in recruiting, however, that part i am not really confident in. still, to me, within 70 miles functions most similarly to prestige. i have also checked with other coaches on a number of occasions when i was within 70 miles and another school went for the player, simply asking if they pulled them down or not. and in every case, either they did pull them down, or the player had contacted me before the other school up to at least 1 prestige grade higher. i guess i am curious if you ever researched cases and found the opposite - that a player within 70 miles to you had dropped naturally to a school with less than 1 grade prestige advantage, but not to you.

also furry, when you do the campus visit ever cycle thing, do you still get the "you can recruit me now" message, or is that skipped?

Turns out this player dropped naturally to the b+ school... Makes me think even more something went wrong

Per CS: Jeffrey, It appears he never quite dropped down to you, but it was close enough for him to accept your efforts. There is a boost given to schools that are closeby when processing recruiting actions, but that boost is not factored in when the dropdown message is sent.

So basically it sounds like to me, the "I have dropped down now" message is not totally functional for players within 70 miles. If you get the "you can talk to me already" message in the first place, its fine, because you never should get a follow up. But if you get the "you are a backup" message, the guy definitely won't take your HV/CV yet. but he will take them before he sends the "I have dropped down now" message, which is different than players over 70 miles away. I guess the solution is to send a phone call each cycle until you find out. I think the difference between when he will take your effort and when he sends the message is the total value of the boost (seems to be obvious right), which as I've said, I am almost positive its at least a 1 prestige grade boost. Which is probably at least a whole day, and could be a day and a half, which I think is too long to wait for the message.
 

This happens even if they are not closer then 70 miles. You can get them to accept it before they send out drop down messages

Posted by furry_nipps on 1/11/2011 3:11:00 PM (view original):
This happens even if they are not closer then 70 miles. You can get them to accept it before they send out drop down messages

are you saying by 1 cycle or more than 1 cycle?