Moneyball All-Time Wins (by franchise) Topic

iain
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With all the attention Moneyball is getting for coming out #1 in another set of world rankings, I thought it worth checking to see just how balanced the world has been.

Moneyball All-Time Wins    
Division City Total Wins Avg.
AL West Portland 1103 91.9
NL East Philadelphia 1024 85.3
AL East Boston 1020 85.0
AL North St. Louis 1016 84.7
AL North Cincinnati 1015 84.6
NL South Houston 1012 84.3
AL East Pittsburgh* 1012 84.3
NL North Chicago 1006 83.8
NL South Florida 1006 83.8
NL South OKC/Memphis 1001 83.4
NL East Washington, D.C. 998 83.2
AL South Atlanta 995 82.9
NL West Los Angeles* 988 82.3
AL East Cleveland* 984 82.0
AL East New York* 982 81.8
NL West San Diego* 973 81.1
AL South New Orleans 973 81.1
NL North Detroit 972 81.0
NL North Kansas City* 961 80.1
NL South Texas 959 79.9
NL East Buffalo 953 79.4
AL West Anaheim* 951 79.3
NL North Toronto 950 79.2
AL South Charlotte 943 78.6
AL North Minnesota 940 78.3
AL West Seattle 936 78.0
NL East New York* 935 77.9
AL West Salt Lake City 932 77.7
NL West San Francisco* 912 76.0
NL West Las Vegas 902 75.2
AL South Nashville 893 74.4
AL North Montreal 853 71.1

* - indicates only one owner in franchise history
1/19/2011 1:40 PM
iain
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On average, it's amazing that only 3 franchises over the course of 12 seasons are more than +/- 6 wins from .500!
1/19/2011 1:43 PM
iain
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That the highest single-owner franchise came in 7th was more than a little surprising, although Philly's had the same owner since midway through Season 1, so perhaps that's closer to what one would expect to see.
1/19/2011 1:44 PM
iain
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I can't help shaking my head when I note that the two worst franchises were also the ones controlled at one time or another by the founding owner (though never commish) of the world.
1/19/2011 1:45 PM
MikeT23
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Posted by iain on 1/19/2011 1:43:00 PM (view original):
On average, it's amazing that only 3 franchises over the course of 12 seasons are more than +/- 6 wins from .500!
Is that really amazing?   The way HBD is set up pretty much means everyone SHOULD gravitate towards .500 the longer the game is played.   At least in well-run worlds.    In MG, I think, amongst owners with at least 5 seasons, we've got three that are more than -/+ 6 wins from .500.   And that's averaging less than half of the number you're looking at.

Not saying that it's not a good thing.  Just that I don't find it amazing. 
1/19/2011 2:02 PM
sickchangeup
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"amongst owners with at least 5 seasons" - Although the results may be the same, you're comparing apples to oranges.  You'd need to take all 32 franchises (ignoring who owned them) and do the same if you wanted to actually compare if MG's results are the same as MB's.
1/19/2011 2:15 PM
MikeT23
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I'm not attempting to compare.  I'm just pointing out that everyone should gravitate towards the middle in a game where we have the same resources.   Two seasons will have more owners closer to the middle than one season.   Three seasons more than two, four seasons more than three and so on.   That's how averages generally work.    Of course, in even the crappiest worlds, you'll probably find the numbers to be a little more skewed but it won't be an "amazing" difference.

Think of flipping a coin.  After the first flip, one outcome has happened 100% of the time. 
1/19/2011 2:19 PM
sickchangeup
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I understand the original statement you made, I was simply pointing out that you backed it up with evidence that was irrelevant to your point.
1/19/2011 2:26 PM
csherwood
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Of course we all know that the success of Moneyball was due solely to the tireless efforts of its original commish, who then got himself booted out under theminimum wins rulke for completely sucking.  LOL
1/19/2011 2:33 PM
iain
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I think that comparing two of the best worlds out there, seeing they have similar win distributions, and then calling it "common" is absurd.

I'd be surprised if you could find more than 10 worlds that are even close to MB and MG in that respect.  That's not even 6% of all worlds.

Is it what's supposed to happen?  Sure.  Does it happen?  Of course not.

1/19/2011 2:39 PM
iain
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Posted by csherwood on 1/19/2011 2:33:00 PM (view original):
Of course we all know that the success of Moneyball was due solely to the tireless efforts of its original commish, who then got himself booted out under theminimum wins rulke for completely sucking.  LOL
Maybe you should have put more effort into your team, or it wouldn't be the worst non-thaceo franchise out there.  :)
1/19/2011 2:39 PM
MikeT23
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Posted by iain on 1/19/2011 2:39:00 PM (view original):

I think that comparing two of the best worlds out there, seeing they have similar win distributions, and then calling it "common" is absurd.

I'd be surprised if you could find more than 10 worlds that are even close to MB and MG in that respect.  That's not even 6% of all worlds.

Is it what's supposed to happen?  Sure.  Does it happen?  Of course not.

You still commish HJ, right?   It was 24th or so in the rankings.   We know the history of jfj dominating and the problems early in that world.   Check it.   I think you're going to be "amazed" again by the startling low number of teams +/- 6 wins from .500.
1/19/2011 2:51 PM
iain
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Okay, so I checked the NL in HJ, and 5 out of 16 teams had franchise win averages outside of the 87 to 75 range.

That's almost double the teams (5-3), in half the number of franchises checked (16 to 32), in over 50% more seasons (17 vs. 11).

I think that contradicts all your points.

EDIT:  Checked the AL now, too.

Total of 10 teams outside +/- 6 wins of an 81 average over 17 seasons.
1/19/2011 3:37 PM (edited)
sickchangeup
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Actual information.  Whoa.
1/19/2011 3:56 PM
alogman1
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Aren't there enough threads already for Moneyball members to pat themselves on the back for what a great world they feel they have?  Did we really need another? 
1/19/2011 4:13 PM
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