I'm about to end my regular season... I should be charlston easily... of my 4 losses this year I'm only really upset about 1 of them.

The problem - my SOS sucks, and it's not going to get any better with today's game. Do I need to win the CT to go to the NT? What if I just go to the CT champ game?

What's better for prestigue, an NT first round loss or a PI 2nd or 3rd round run?

No, you pretend to coach a fake internet basketball team. You will have to wait for the next post for a serious answer.

thank you?

Without winning the CT, or a boost in RPI, the likely anwser is no.

Charleston may drop your RPI, and from looking at your conference, you may not get a boost by winning a couple of games in the CT.  Some of the factors that may come to play in the bubble discussion- How many shock winners get their CT's?  If 5 or 6 teams below an RPI of 60 win their CTs, you have no hope.

Factors the sim looks at to get into the CT:  RPI (62), non conf (8-2), last 10 (8-2 assuming you don't win the CT), vs top 50 RPI (1-1 now, but the win was against #50 so they could drop to 51), vs. top 51-100 RPI, vs. 101-200, and 200+ (bad loss group- which you have one right now).

As for prestige- a PI final four is equal to a first round exit in the NT.

that's what i thought, damn....

i thought i had enough human coaches to get my SOS around 100, but some of those humans didn't pan out. 

next year i made it a harder schedule (despite graduating my best player in hatch)

so in other words i'm hoping for no upsets in other conferences, and for me to at least make the title game, if not win it all.

i've got some work to do.

but if i do go to the PI i stil have a chance to win my first ever postseason game.

T-bone:  I think the above thoughts are about right.  If you get your RPI up to 55+, your chances of an at-large increase a good bit but it's still a decent long shot. 
A bit of unsolicitated advice:  If I was you, I'd up Hatch's distribution and set him at +1 (maybe even +2) if you haven't already, to give you the best shot at winning the CT.
Hatch is taking about 19.5% of your shots.  He should be able to go up to 25% without a noticable drop off in performance.   He shoots too few 3s as well.  Your team as a whole doesn't shot many 3s which sets up perfectly to increase Hatch's %.  I haven't looked, but would guess you face a lot of "-" defenses given the lack of 3s you shoot.  Thus, raising Hatch to a +1 or even +2 in the right situation should give him a lot of open 3s and he has the ratings to shoot over .400 at +1, and maybe even +2 (as you probably know, .333 on 3s is equal to .500 on 2s).

You've got a shot if you make the CT finals. obviously, if you win the CT, you're in. It's pretty unlikely without winning the CT, though. 

Win the CT or you're PIT.

well wish me luck, got a bye, then i'll face one of two teams i swept in the regular season, then another team i beat in the regular season (but he was the best one i had beaten, and it was close)...

if i can get to the finals i feel good about keeping my RPI below 60, but i'm sort of the poster child right now for a bubble team that needed a better SOS

Posted by trobone on 1/24/2011 11:36:00 PM (view original):
well wish me luck, got a bye, then i'll face one of two teams i swept in the regular season, then another team i beat in the regular season (but he was the best one i had beaten, and it was close)...

if i can get to the finals i feel good about keeping my RPI below 60, but i'm sort of the poster child right now for a bubble team that needed a better SOS

Hehe, your RPI just jumped from 60 to 59 w/o you playing a game :)

there i go... 1 step closer.... still worried about next year... i had hoped mccaig would develop more in ath/speed, i can use renner as a backup SG for defense, but i need a to recruit 2 guards, one that focuses on defense and BH and another that can score.

update - made it to the title game - RPI now under 60, playing a team with 43 RPI, taking the advice from here and changing some things up for the title game in case he goes -2 or -3 (cause i would against me, i don't shoot many 3s during the season)

seeing my RPI didn't get much better after winning the 2 games (i thought it might after the last game, and the guy i beat still has a better RPI than me due to SOS) so i guess it's win or PI for me. I have a feeling I'm going to be a bubble team that doesn't make it.

If I go to the Pi instead i have a chance to make a run though to the 2nd or third round.

At DIII, an RPI of 50 will usually get you in the NT. At DII, with fewer teams,  you have more leeway. I see teams with RPIs in the 65-70 range regularly make the NT. I think you have a good shot.

In the ongoing Iba tournament,  UNC Pembroke made it with a 15-12 record, RPI 67.  Concord (25-4, RPI 60) is also in.   In Crum, W. Alabama (20-8, RPI 63) made it

thanks... never made the NT before, so i just wish i knew one way or another. 
 
Playing concord will increase my SOS... which is my weak point...

either way i think shepard's got good seasons ahead...  cespedes, grier, latour, and caron, poulin make for a decent future. (not fan of renner or mccaig)