So I've got this guy, on the last year of his deal:

JeffHackman

Current deal calls for $15.0 mil this year.  The team I picked him up from put in an option for this year, meaning I could pay $3.75 mil to let him walk.

Despite his terrible season last year, I'd still like him around.  He finished 2nd in the MVP race 2 seasons ago, and would appear to have some value left on his HOF career.  If I decline his option, what are the odds he'd resign w/o testing the FA market?  I assume his initial asking price would be for something less than $11.25 mil, but it could potentially pop above that on the FA market, or at least push his contract out more years than he'd be asking.  If I knew he'd resign an extension w/o testing the market, I'd do it in a heart beat, b/c I can save some cash.  If he's going to test the FA waters, I'd just eat the extra money and pick up the option.

thanks Mike.

Well, I'm guessing at that.  I've only had a half dozen or so cases.  But none re-signed.

I was probably leaning towards not taking the risk anyways.  I'm kind in a wierd situation where they money would have gone to waste otherwise, my rotation and bullpens are pretty much set, as are my position players.  I probably could have upgraded a little bit here or there, but I'd rather have him around for certain.