Arbitration Report Topic

tecwrg
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Would there be a downside for the Arbritration Report page, for the next season, providing an estimate of arb demands for your potential arb-eligible guys?  I'm thinking that maybe this could be made available at the end of the regular season.  Right now, the arb report for next season displays this season's current salary, which is not really a good indication of what next season's demands might be.

If we had a rough idea of what a player's arb demands would be next season, we could make an earlier decision on whether or not we would want to trade the player if we felt that we could no longer afford him.  As it stands right now, we can only see arb demands right after rollover, and arb day is only two days after that.  If we have arb-eligible guys that we would prefer to trade than sign, we have very little time to do so.

The reason why I bring this up is because I like to start by planning for next season after the current regular season has concluded.  I may know that a particular player is going to be arb-eligible next season, but without a clue as to what his arb deands might be, it's tough to plan today as to whether or not he'll fit into my salary structure next season.  I might want to keep him if he asks for less than $X, but might not be able to afford him if he expects more than that.  Waiting until after the rollover to learn that gives me very little time to try to trade him to get some value in return.  I've ended up releasing some pretty decent players because of this, because I couldn't afford to pay them and didn't have ample time to work out a deal.

Thoughts?
3/4/2011 11:10 AM
MikeT23
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A)  You should have, from experience, a rough idea of what his arb demand will be.  If you're "without a clue as to what his arb deands might be", you're just not paying attention.

B)  In the name of realism, do MLB teams know what their arb-el players will ask at season's end?  Or do they find out at the hearing?
3/4/2011 11:21 AM
MikeT23
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And, for the record, I have been surprised at a few arb3 demands.   I just felt the player was giving me the "sign me or lose me" finger.
3/4/2011 11:23 AM
tecwrg
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The guy that prompted this idea for me was an arb3 guy.  A pretty decent player, but only a platoon/role player for me.  My plan all along was to take him through arb3, let him walk as a FA and get compensation for him in return.  He showed up with a pretty lofty arb3 demand that I couldn't justify paying or afford.  No bites when I shopped him around on the world chat, so I had to release him.

Also, I rarely take pretty good players through arb3.  If they're in my long-term plans, they get LT'd instead of arb2'd.  The guys I typically take to arb3 are the ones that usually will not be comp worthy and have reasonable arb3 demands.  So this guy was an exception for me.
3/4/2011 11:54 AM
MikeT23
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You didn't address B.
3/4/2011 12:09 PM
tecwrg
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Exact demands, no.  But teams generally have rough ideas.  Agents have been known to leak things in order to get the teams to up their offers for the hearings.

Which is why I suggested an "estimated arb demand".  Not the exact demand.

3/4/2011 12:12 PM
MikeT23
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You don't know the exact demand but you can have a rough idea(you know, from experience).

Seriously, you're asking for something that I'd expect a 2nd/3rd seasons HBD owner to ask for.    Essentially you're asking for info that wouldn't be divulged, in the real world, for 3-4 months.   

3/4/2011 12:18 PM
AlCheez
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I really don't think this is information we need at the end of the prior season, but it's inaccurate to say teams don't get numbers until the hearings. Numbers are submitted in mid-January, hearings are in February. And prior to any of that happening, both sides are free to negotiate to settle on a one year deal with arbitration. Most arbitration-eligible players don't even get as far as submitting numbers before getting a deal, and even then, they often wind up agreeing to split the difference in some way and still avoid the hearing. I think there were only 10-12 actual arbitration hearings across all teams this year.

That's what I'd like to see changed - having players (at least most of them) being willing to sign a one year deal for less than their arb number prior to the hearing. It's kind of silly that your only options with arb guys is to release them, sign them long term, or take them to arbitration and risk ******* them off if you win.
3/4/2011 12:38 PM
MikeT23
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OK, my point was that teams don't know arb numbers before a season ends.   No agent sit down with a GM and says "You know my boy is arb-el.  He's going to ask between 3 and 4 mil."   And, even if they did, it wouldn't be set in stone.  Similar player B signs a 3y/28m deal the next week and suddenly 3-4m becomes 7m because the agent is going to compare his guy to the gamy making 9.3m per.  

3/4/2011 12:50 PM
tecwrg
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Posted by MikeT23 on 3/4/2011 12:18:00 PM (view original):

You don't know the exact demand but you can have a rough idea(you know, from experience).

Seriously, you're asking for something that I'd expect a 2nd/3rd seasons HBD owner to ask for.    Essentially you're asking for info that wouldn't be divulged, in the real world, for 3-4 months.   

Are you comparing the HBD offseason to the real world?

There are approximately 110 "lost days" between the end of one HBD season and the start of another.  In real life, teams are working throughout the winter on planning for next season.  We don't have that opportunity.  Worlds are locked when the WS concludes, and don't unlock until budgets are set the following season.  It's like saying that MLB GM's like Brian Cashman do absolutely nothing work-wise from November 1 through February 15.  That's not quite what happens.

So comparisons to the real-world really cannot be taken too seriously with respect to HBD.  Compromises are made to accommodate deviations from reality.  I'm proposing that another one might be reasonable.
3/4/2011 12:53 PM
MikeT23
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It's not reasonable.   It's an effort to dumb down the game.   Again, I'd expect this from someone in their 2nd season of HBD.
3/4/2011 12:57 PM
tecwrg
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How is this dumbing down the game?
3/4/2011 12:59 PM
MikeT23
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Compare it to the FA who won't re-sign.  You plan on bringing him back.   After budgeting, he says "I'm declaring FA no matter what."   Most experienced owners can get a read on whether or not he'll come back before budgeting is over.   Much like most experienced owners can ballpark an arb demand. 

If this is acceptable, FA should declare, with 100% certainty, if they'll return before budgeting.
3/4/2011 12:59 PM
MikeT23
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Same thing with 6y minor league FA.  I want to know if they're going to demand 3m in FA if I don't keep them on the 40.   Some come back for a minor league deal, some demand a BL deal.  I want to know who is who.
3/4/2011 1:01 PM
AlCheez
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Posted by MikeT23 on 3/4/2011 12:50:00 PM (view original):

OK, my point was that teams don't know arb numbers before a season ends.   No agent sit down with a GM and says "You know my boy is arb-el.  He's going to ask between 3 and 4 mil."   And, even if they did, it wouldn't be set in stone.  Similar player B signs a 3y/28m deal the next week and suddenly 3-4m becomes 7m because the agent is going to compare his guy to the gamy making 9.3m per.  

Right, and again, I don't think we should have the information before the season ends.

That being said, in real life, you have at least a month (for the world series participants) and as many as 2 (non-playoff teams) to decide whether you want to tender an arb-eligible a contract, and then another 2+ months after that before arbitration. And they are free to be talking with the player throughout the whole process. In HBD, arb hearings are what, the 2nd day after budgets are set? So if you have a guy you don't want to keep around at his arb number, you have 2 days to find a deal for him, or you have to release him. So it's not really a fair comparison to real life.

My answer to that would be to come up with a way to push back the arb hearings in the schedule, and also incorporate the ability to work out a 1 year deal without arb - not to provide the arb numbers in the prior season.
3/4/2011 1:06 PM
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