I don't see a problem with Illinois. His SOS is #4 and he's only losing by an average of 5.5 ppg. Four seasons ago, with the same scenario, Illinois was 19-12, RPI 25. Eight seasons ago, they were Elite Eight.
Granted, they won't finish like the RL teams you mention, but I'd be pretty satisifed with that history.
Part of the problem, of course, is if you start the freshmen too high, there's no room for improvement. That was the problem before the last update, when sophomores were routinely maxing out. But it's still better than the 'old days', when only teams with 5-6 seniors had a decent chance to win the NT