What could I expect from this guy given 500 ML ABs?   Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Juan Hernandez

Just a guess based on a couple of similar guys on my ATL squad:

In Monterrey, I would expect 35 HR/ .260 AVG/ .380 OBP/.850 OPS and 100 Ks

.230.340.480

I don't know how Monterrey plays and I'm too lazy too look it up, but in a neutral park I'd guess .240 avg, .355 obp, 28-35 Hrs

.215-.315.-.480  30-35 Homers  100+ K's
That 43 vR is a killer, especially combined with a low 20's contact.

Posted by moethedog on 3/17/2011 6:45:00 PM (view original):
.215-.315.-.480  30-35 Homers  100+ K's
That 43 vR is a killer, especially combined with a low 20's contact.

+1.

But way more interesting-- what on earth was his injury in S10 that dropped his eye 4 points but no other rating more than one?  Did he acquire ADD?  Start using meth?  Develop restless leg syndrome?  Did he grow 3 inches and make himself a larger strike zone?  I've never seen that pattern of decline in an injury.

2

ATL

ML

84

230

37

64

8

1

21

62

37

54

0

0

.278

.383

.596

.979

This stat line is from Max Gonzalez. Granted his contact at 34 is 13 points better, but Hernandez's eye is 9 points higher, and his vs L is 24 points higher, otherwise very similar.

Now ATL plays -1/-1/0/+1/+1 and Monterrey is +1/+1/0/+2/+2.

The biggest difference is Max's stats are from a world in S2, whereas Juan is in an established world S16. Max probably over-performed a bit too.

2

ATL

ML

127

404

50

108

19

1

25

82

33

111

1

0

.267

.327

.505

.832

 This is from Connor Harris. His vsR is 6 points higher, vL 10 points higher, contact 7 points higher, but his eye is 41 points lower.

So in a plus park, I figure that would offset the difference in league depth somewhat.
Maybe I undervalued the difference in league depth, but I still think .250/.350/,500 is realistic.

15

SEA

ML

87

329

46

83

16

1

18

62

28

99

0

1

.252

.310

.471

.781

This is from a guy in your world Roger Tucker,  His line is similar except his eye isn't nearly as good as Juan's. His power is only 90 compared to 96. His numbers are in line with what I would expect. Seattle is a SUPER pitching park @ -3/-3/-1/-2/-2. So maybe he only played vs L, IDK how to find that for last season.

Either way I think the difference in park factor should allow for decent enough numbers.

I like your thinking and hope you are right!  Thanks!