"Coach, I'm really on the fence right now - you've said everything I needed to hear, but so has another school. I can definitely see myself playing for you next year. I just can't decide yet."

Never mind...I guess I'm ahead.  The guy signed.

I think it was a close lead for you at the time. 

That crap is very hard to read especially if you put several visits in one cycle.  Unless they are a drop down and it is the last day don't expect them to sign with that BS unless they have you on their list of teams they are considering.  Even then you could lose them with a bad cycle.

If you are the only school considering him, obviously he's yours. But nobody signs after one cycle of attention. I would say if no other schools are considering, he's waiting a cycle. If other schools are considering, you're trailing. If its a battle it seems pretty obvious if you're winning "I can't wait to sign" "if it was a race you'd be leading" etc. ,or losing.