MWC-Season 39 (RECAPPED) - Phelan

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Season 39 will be a big season for the MWC. We keep closing the gap on the Big 6 and last season the MWC earned nearly double the recruiting cash that the SEC did. Based on the SRP ("Shqipta Rating Points") system, I see 4 MWC teams with a good shot at an NT berth, based on the fact that their SRP score is at or above 235 and three more teams with a good shot at the PI because their SRP score is above 220. Of course, nothing is guaranteed, and we still have to recruit some decent players into the conference.

Here is how the SRP scores for MWC teams comes out. I have to admit I was surprised by CSU's and BYU's scores, but then I looked back at their depth and see how those two are going to be tough to beat this year. We've also seen in the past, fatchance's ability to "overcoach" his players into playing above their talent level.

SRP* scores (While these scores look much lower than previous years, I believe a 230 under this system would be roughly equivalent to a 620 under the old system).

East

1. Utah (240)
2. BYU (239)
3. TSU (231)
4. TCU (217)
5. New Mexico (213)
6. Denver (194)

West

1. CSU (248)
2. Wyoming (237)
3. SDSU (229)
4. UNLV (220)
5. N.Texas (213)
6. Air Force (184)

In part based on the invitations from the Northeast conference for members of the MWC to "move up" to the Northeast, I decided to create a Shqipta Rating Points Index of most of the conferences so that we could compare and see just how far we would be moving up if we left the MWC for the Northeast. I'd say that based on these results, the claim that one could "move up" by taking a team in the Northeast were false advertising. Although they would probably just qualify as "puffery" and there's really nothing wrong with that. Although from a marketing standpoint, creating good word of mouth is usually more effective than simply throwing out claims that can't be supported.

Obviously the numbers will change after recruiting, but even so here is the initial SRPI (It includes the average SRP score for the conference schools; and the top school(s) for each conference):

1. ACC (252)--University of North Carolina (276)
2. PAC 10 (247)--University of Oregon (274)
3. BIG TEN (237)--Michigan St. (258)
4. BIG 12 (236)--Texas/Colorado (261)
5. SEC (230)--Ole Miss (239)
6. BIG EAST (227)--Syracuse (264)
7. MWC (222)--Colorado St. (248)
8. Ohio Valley (213)--SE Missouri St. (247)
9. CUSA (209) -Southern Methodist (224)
10. Summit League (206)--Valparaiso (238)
11. Ivy League (205)--Columbia (229)
12. Big West (204)--Pacific/NMSU (227)
13. WCC (203)--SJSU/Pepperdine (227)
14. Northeast (199)--Wagner (215)
15. A10 (196)--Rhode Island (220)

If your conference isn't listed here, it's because of one of two things (1) either I didn't think anyone in your conference cared, so I didn't take the 2 minutes it would have taken to calculate your SRP; or (2) I didn't have sufficient motivation. Either can be fixed quickly if you just let me know that you want to know how crappy your conference is in relation to the ACC.

7/13/2011 12:37 PM

deemo15

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Thanks for including the Northeast. If I can speak for my conference mates, the message you got was essentially the message we sent to every D2 conference also. We didn't mean to imply that leaving conferences 1-7 would be a step up, we should have phrased things better if posting in your conferences. With that said, I hope you will keep us in the SRP ratings in the future to see if we are in face making progress. Thanks

7/15/2011 12:01 PM

shqipta

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No problem deemo. I've been in the same position before in the same world. Just last season or maybe two seasons ago, I invited the Big 12 to consider jumping to the much superior MWC, after they invited us to move up to the Big 12. Anything that creates that much discussion on the conference forums is usually welcome in my book.

7/15/2011 12:54 PM

shqipta

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Now that recruiting has finished, it's time to update the SRPs. It looks like the MWC didn't fare so well, having just an average year. But with the lack of talent in the local recruiting areas, it could have been much worse. Based on the SRPs, I predict Utah, BYU, and CSU all make the NT. Wyoming, TSU, and UNLV all make the PI, though any one of those teams could sneak into the NT. TCU, SDSU, and New Mexico barely miss playing in the post-season, while N. Texas shows some good improvement and finishes around 150 RPI, though with a few breaks, any one of those four teams could be playing in the post-season:

EAST

(1t) BYU (242)
(1t) Utah (242)
(3) TSU (233)
(4) TCU (229)
(5) New Mexico (224)
(6) Denver (208)

WEST

(1) CSU (244)
(2) Wyoming (237)
(3) UNLV (231)
(4) SDSU (228)
(5) N.Texas (216)
(6) Air Force (197)

Now for comparison's sake, I'll put out the SPRI. It looks like Oregon is the favorite to win the whole thing. There are 11 teams from the ACC that have the talent to make it to the NT, though they will surely beat each other up and a few will be unfortunate casualties of the tough schedule. While the NE didn't move up in the rankings, they definitely closed the gap on the next tier of teams, and if they keep improving, look for them to move higher up the list next season. I also added two extra teams to the SRPI.

SPRI (Shqipta Rating Points Index)

Rank/Team/Team SRP/ Top Team/ SRP

1. ACC (255)--Georgia Tech/Miami (272)
2. PAC 10 (249)--Oregon (277)
3t. Big Ten (241)--Iowa (257)
3t. Big 12 (241)--Colorado (266)
5t. Big East (234)--Syracuse (269)
5t. SEC (234)--Ole Miss (250)
7. MWC (228)--CSU (244)
8. Ohio Valley (220)--SE Missouri St. (247)
9. CUSA (218)--Mem/SMU (235)
10. Big Sky (216)--Montana St. (233)
11t. IVY (214)--Columbia (237)
11t. Big South (214)--Miss Valley St. (228)
13t. Summit League (213)--Valparaiso (240)
13t. Big West (213)--Pacific (234)
15. WCC (211)--SJSU (232)
16. Northeast (209)--Wagner (227)
17. A10 (208)--Rhode Island (220)

7/19/2011 10:58 AM

fatchance

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I thought SRP of 235 or above has a good shot at an NT bid, so how did Wyoming fall into the PI?

7/19/2011 11:24 AM

shqipta

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I was just trying to motivate you and your team!

7/19/2011 11:28 AM

fatchance

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You are tough on me, kind of like Mickey with Rocky Balboa.

7/19/2011 12:05 PM

northstorm

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Good stuff shqipta .... thanks for taking the time to do the comparisons

7/19/2011 12:11 PM

spsone07

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Fantastic Shqipta.

7/19/2011 1:00 PM

professor17

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Are player IQ's considered in these ratings, or just the core ratings? If IQ's aren't considered, you may be over-rating younger teams and under-rating more experienced teams.

7/19/2011 1:12 PM

shqipta

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Unfortunately the SRP doesn't take into account IQs or FT, so it does tend over rate young teams and under rate experienced teams. But figuring out how to put those in, and still make it so that I can get it figured up in 5-10 minutes is beyond my capacity. But the good news is, the FULL SPRI is nearly completed, meaning soon there will be a comparison of not only all DI conferences, but also all individual teams.

I would note though prof-if you look at my predictions over the last few seasons in the MWC posts, you'll see that they tend to be pretty close, in part because most teams are at least somewhat balanced.

7/19/2011 1:18 PM

shqipta

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Hig
Top 10 SRP in the MWC:

1. V. Zedian, Wyoming (286) Von Zedian is a Junior who has already complied numerous MWC awards in his first two seasons, including Freshman of the Year; Defensive Player of the Year; 3^rd Team All-Conference, and 1^st Team All-Conference. He’s been averaging nearly 10 ppg, while also dominating the conference on the defensive end. I’m hoping that by putting him at the top of the list, he doesn’t stay around for his Senior season.

2. 2. P. Bell, Utah (284) P.Bell has been living in C. Ewing’s shadow for the past few seasons, but no one in the MWC has been working harder or improved more. Last season he doubled his scoring production to 12.8 ppg. The only thing stopping him from scoring 20+ per game is the number of other options on Utah’s team.

3. 3. B.Blevins, BYU (279) B.Blevins has a high SRP socre because of his amazing Athleticsm and Defense, but so far mmt0315 hasn’t played him much. Could have been the girlfriend rumors that keeps him on the bench, if you know what I mean. Anyway, he’ll likely play an important role on a deep cougar team. Anything less than the second round of the NT will be a disappointment for the fans in Provo.

4. 4. M.Eubanks, CSU (277) Eubanks has started every game over the last two seasons for the Rams, contributing 12.5 ppg last year. While he’s not a flashy player that demands all the attention, he is a great team player who makes those around him better and covers for their mistakes. Sevethwest hopes that Eubank’s leadership give him his first DI national tournament appearance as a coach. It’s now or never baby!

5. 5. H.Zhou, Utah (275) Zhou is a monster inside, who continues to grow. He sat out his first season while learning the English language, and there are still times that he looks lost out on the floor. But every year he picks up more and more. His freakish athletic abilities can only be contained for so long.

6. 6. J.Bruton, Wyoming (275) Bruton is probably the most dangerous offensive player in the MWC, although his defensive skills leave something to be desired. Luckily he plays alongside V.Zedian who compensates sufficiently that it doesn’t hurt the team. Last season he scored 15.3 ppg, while pulling in 4.2 rpg and dishing out 2.7 apg.

7. 7. D. Podgurski, Utah (271) D.Podgurski has slowly been working his way into Utah’s rotation, and looks to be a full time starter this year. Last season he shot an amazing .530% while scoring 10.0 ppg.

8. 8. D.Brooks, SDSU (271) D.Brooks has started every game since being recruited to SDSU by wedcrasher. SDSU is going to need him to break out this season if they are going to be dancing. SDSU is a team that relies most on Defense, with five of the top 10 defensive ratings in the conference. It may be ugly, but SDSU’s goal is to crash your party.

9. 9. T.Clark, BYU (267) Clark is the all-around player that holds BYU together. He’s started 60 games over the last two season, and wants to go out with a bang.

10. 10, J.Doane, CSU (266) Doane is a scoring machine who loves to chuck the rock at the hole. Last season he scored 12.7 ppg while starting 19 games. We’ll see if seventhwest can get enough out of him to get over the hump.

Top Freshmen

(1) William Rinaldi, Utah (237)

(2) S.Armstrong, TCU (226)

(3) C.Barber, UNLV (222)

(4) E.Demarco, TCU (222)

(5) J.Kidd, Wyoming (222)

7/20/2011 12:00 PM

shqipta

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At the end of non-conference there has been one surprise team and 2 disappointing ones. In addition, at the end of the non-conference schedule, the MWC is ahead of the Big East conference in conference RPI. If the season ended today it looks like the MWC very well could send five teams to the NT. Here are the current standings (based on standard RPI) with changes from the preseason predictions noted in parenthesis:

EAST

(1) Utah (32) (+0.5)
(2) Texas Southern (63) (+1)
(3) BYU (113) (-1.5)
(4) TCU (128) (0)
(5) New Mexico (138) (0)
(6) Denver (232) (0)

WEST

(1) Wyoming (10) (+1)
(2) Colorado St. (11) (-1)
(3) N.Texas (40) (+2)
(4) SDSU (50) (0)
(5) UNLV (220) (-2)
(6) Air Force (294) (0)

7/26/2011 12:13 PM

shqipta

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The MWC sent three teams to the National Tournament, with Colorado St. and Utah making it to the second round. Three more teams made it to the Postseason invitational, with BYU and SDSU winning their first round games and BYU is still playing. In conference RPI the MWC finished sixth, ahead of the Big East and not too far behind the SEC.

It looks like the makeovers in Houston and San Diego are both bearing fruit as trobone and wedcrasher were both able to take their teams to the post season this year. Fatchance continues over-coaching his team, as he managed to get his guys into the NT, despite my predictions that he would not make it, and despite the loss of an important Senior to grade issues late in the season. Unfortunately ewells54 has filed his retirement papers with Texas Christian. We all want to wish him good luck at his retirement home in Bellefonte, Pennsylvania. Tmp741128 also impressed this year as he shaved nearly 200 points off of his team’s RPI and just missed winning the conference championship when Utah made a last second basket. RPI-wise it was the best year for the Mean Green in 22 seasons.

If anyone wants to take-over TCU, Denver, or Air Force you should know that the job comes with a free supply of bad jokes any time you want them.

Here are the final standings (based on RPI). The number in parentheses shows the change from where the sRPI predicted the finish would be at the start of the season. The sRPI got every team right in the east, and was off only slightly in the West. However, I would note that if you just went off of Conf. W-L record, the sRPI was perfect across the board.

EAST

(1) Utah (0) (NT 2^nd Round)
(2) BYU (0) (PI 3^rd Round and still playing)
(3)TSU (0) (PI 1^st Round)
(4) TCU (0)
(5) New Mexico (0)
(6)Denver (0)

WEST

(1)Wyoming (+1) (NT 1^st Round)
(2) CSU (-1) (NT 2^nd Round)
(3)SDSU (0) (PI 2^nd Round)
(4) N. Texas (+1)
(5)UNLV (-1)
(6)Air Force (0)

Next season should be a good one in the MWC, but it seems likely that there will be more parity than ever before. Utah is losing at least 4 seniors with both P.Bell and H.Zhou eyeing the NBA. If one or both of those players leave, Utah could spend next season rebuilding. BYU will be pretty hard hit as the Cougars lose 4 starters, with only J.Contreras returning. Texas Southern should continue to improve as not only all 5 starters return, but also every player who made a decent contribution. Look for TSU to get to the NT next season. Texas Christian returns 4 starters and nearly the entire roster will remain intact. There will be a lot of depth and skill for whoever replaces ewells54 at the helm (or ewells54 could just stay and keep on keepin’ on.). New Mexico returns 3 starters and basically all of its bench. Chip1213 is still trying to break the NT barrier, but he may need another year or two to get there. Denver continues to plummet without a steady coach to right the ship, unless someone comes in next year and begins the rebuild, look for Denver to occupy the bottom spot in the East.

Colorado St. returns two starters from, but has a sizable number of soon to be seniors that will provide veteran leadership for the new recruits. Wyoming brings back 3 starters (unless Zedian or Swanson go the NBA route) and looks to continue being one of the premier teams of the MWC. SDSU has been rising fast and returns 4.5 starters from last season. I think SDSU is a pretty sure bet for an NT berth next season. UNLV also returns 4 of its starters and will have a solid bench next season. The runnin’ rebels have made small progress each of the last three seasons, and hope to return to the postseason. The “Mean Green” started rolling last season and ended up with their first sub-100 RPI in a long, long, long time. With every starter returning, and several key bench players coming back, I wouldn’t be surprised to see N. Texas in the post-season next year. The folks in Denton better be careful or they may have to increase tmp741128’s salary from an unlimited supply of hot-dogs to something respectable. Like Denver, Air Force continues to slide downward with the lack of a steady coach. An embarrassing 0-27 season has the boosters in Colorado Springs, wishing for the “glory days” of kydynasty, when the Falcons won the National Championship.

8/8/2011 1:38 PM

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