A little background: This is my first year taking over, and I have the #1 pick. My team plays at Petco. The league is very, very short on starting pitching -- big on hitters. I need both pitching and hitting -- my team is decimated.

I have 14 million in both HS and College scouting. Not ideal, but it was the most I could have. I've narrowed it down to 3 players:

Player 1 is a L/L 20 yr old CF who will sign for slot money:

       OVR RNG GLV AS AA DUR HEAL SPD MAKE  CON POW VL VR EYE  BR  
Cur 70    72     63    56  47  74    89     90     47          63     80     52  56   56   45
Pro 94    81     82    65  79  92    92     90     56          85     97     77   81   63   62

Player 2 is a 18 yr old SP who "probably won't sign -- heart set on college."

       OVR STM CTR  VL  VR  VEL  G/F  1    2   3   4    5 DUR  HEAL MAKE        
Cur 54   56     54     49   49   75    61   75 60  32 41 12  26     78         59
Pro  85   74    89      82   83   91   76   89 81  55 57 14  31    80          68

Player 3 is a 19 yr old SP who will sign for slot money:

      OVR STM CTR  VL  VR  VEL  G/F  1    2   3   4    5    DUR  HEAL MAKE
Cur 57   62    70     52   51   25    72   75  65  37 35 31    24     54       80
Pro  82   84   99     77   77   30    86   86   83  57  41 39   27   57        86


Here are my thoughts:

Player 1 (the CF) seems like the easy choice, but he's not likely to hit his projections (if they're close to accurate, anyway) with a 47/56 makeup. I hate playing bad fielders in CF, especially in a park like Petco, and he'd be a way below average one. I could stick him in left and get  .290 and 30hr/30sb out of him every year, but a LF with pick #1 seems like a waste.

Player 3  would probably be my second choice, but his 54 health is pretty scary. Is it worth the chance to get a 99 control pitcher with two + pitches and good splits? Are his projections too far off?

I'm considering player 2 (the unlikely to sign) simply because I highly doubt he'll actually sign, and then I'll have the Type D pick for next year's draft. I'm a long ways away from competing in a tough division, and would be willing to be patient. I also have 4 more picks in the top 63 in addition to the first pick, so it's not like I wouldn't be hauling in any talent this year. If he did miraculously sign, I'd feel confident trotting him out as a solid but not spectacular SP1.

What would you do in my shoes? Any feedback and input is appreciated.

Just for the fact the 3rd player has the highest make up I would do that if you are worried about whether he will hit projections or not. I personally think the CF will be great regardless.

Either 1 or 3 is a fine #1 pick.  I like 1 a little better.

Here's a question:

With 14m in scouting across the board, would it be "safer" to take the Type D pick next year when I have 18m in scouting? I have a feeling I'm missing a top player in this draft completely and that my projections are a little shoddy.

Not neccessarily, you're then gambling that w/ the #2 pick in next year's draft you'll see someone as good as any of these 3.  That is no garuntee, I've seen some pretty crappy draft classes in the past, there is no garuntee that the #2 pick will be a regular all star.  I'd take either 1 or 3, sign them for $4 mil and not look back.  I'd probably draft #3 and pray the health isn't an issue.

I like #1, I think eventually he will settle in as a good 2B for you; just move out of Petco to take advantage of his power.

That's the problem -- he can't play second. He's a lefty.

Yep, just noticed that...well I noticed it before but it didn't sink in.

If #1 hits projections (big if) he's a 305-365-560 type of player.  That's a heck of a CF or LF or 2B.  Even he he "only" gets to 78-90-70-75-56, then he's still hitting 285-335-515.  He's till a terrific offensive player.  And he will easily hit 30 in any park.  Figure him for 35-40.

There isn't a huge difference between 2 and 3.....except 3's health.

Take the OF/2B guy. 

Taking a very good to great everyday player with power in the 90's seems like a great way to start rebuilding your team.

#1 is a no brainer. His range rating will be 5 points below recs. Big deal...