In a previous post to this forum ( http://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?TopicID=438659&TopicsTimeframe=180 ) I gave an example of how the logic that determines whether a possession ends in a foul is problematic. Though I've continued to notice this issue, I want to provide two more examples that highlight my point. Similarly, they are post-season games from the same team previously used.

My team (Mount Union):

Name	Yr.	Pos.	A	SPD	REB	DE	BLK	LP	PE	BH	P	WE	ST	DU	FT	TOT
Kevin Benson	Sr.	PG	57	84	1	55	4	31	46	57	38	87	99	56	B-	615
James Patel	Sr.	PG	62	73	2	64	4	13	89	85	60	86	86	54	B	678
Jeffrey Burleigh	Jr.	PG	61	70	17	78	13	17	36	62	67	28	71	54	B	574
David Sung	Jr.	PG	53	69	2	59	4	17	50	49	51	58	79	73	C+	564
Kevin Bowen	Jr.	SG	55	75	3	49	28	29	71	66	33	86	75	51	B+	621
Casey Miller	Jr.	SG	50	57	16	34	3	1	88	47	35	49	79	48	B+	507
Howard Cogdell	So.	SF	47	46	45	39	18	21	42	27	42	30	63	56	B	476
James Copes	Jr.	PF	32	32	88	27	69	86	1	15	12	48	88	27	C-	525
Roger Hatton	Sr.	C	57	22	87	44	80	39	2	17	35	85	80	50	C	598
Charles Manfredi	Sr.	C	44	31	93	44	85	79	1	30	18	66	74	54	B-	619
Ralph Johnson	So.	C	29	33	71	54	57	15	22	23	23	50	68	57	C-	502
Randy Hanson	Fr.	C	45	17	67	47	54	69	3	12	1	71	75	35	D	496
Averages	-	-	49	51	41	50	35	35	38	41	35	62	78	51	-	565

Name	Yr.	Pos.	Flex	Motion	Triangle	Fastbreak	Man	Zone	Press
Kevin Benson	Sr.	PG	D-	A+	D-	D-	C-	A	A
James Patel	Sr.	PG	D-	A+	D-	D-	D-	A+	A
Jeffrey Burleigh	Jr.	PG	F	B	F	F	B	C+	B+
David Sung	Jr.	PG	C-	A-	D-	D-	D-	A-	A
Kevin Bowen	Jr.	SG	C	A-	D-	D-	D-	A	A
Casey Miller	Jr.	SG	D-	A	D-	C-	C	A	A+
Howard Cogdell	So.	SF	C	B	D-	D-	C-	B	B+
James Copes	Jr.	PF	C-	A-	D-	D-	D-	A-	A-
Roger Hatton	Sr.	C	D-	A+	D-	D-	C-	A	A
Charles Manfredi	Sr.	C	D-	A	D-	D-	D-	A	A+
Ralph Johnson	So.	C	C	B+	D-	D-	D-	B+	A-
Randy Hanson	Fr.	C	C-	B-	F	F	F	B	B-

1st Example (Chapman):

Name	Yr.	Pos.	A	SPD	REB	DE	BLK	LP	PE	BH	P	WE	ST	DU	FT	TOT
James Cooley	So.	PG	58	84	1	54	3	1	35	66	57	49	80	70	C+	558
Lawrence Rentz	So.	PG	58	79	13	72	14	1	74	42	40	70	85	68	C+	616
Wayne Hill	Jr.	SG	65	69	7	76	8	15	37	56	34	64	79	57	C-	567
Jeffrey Ewing	Fr.	SG	60	61	5	60	3	8	23	63	50	50	70	38	C-	491
Daniel Marshall	Sr.	SF	66	46	46	48	38	58	67	40	38	58	74	56	B-	635
Dale Rhoton	Sr.	SF	75	68	36	67	19	50	57	47	50	58	75	97	C	699
Johnny Rose	Sr.	PF	54	41	74	65	77	72	47	39	36	51	79	76	C	711
Allen Towery	Sr.	PF	42	18	90	29	78	47	36	14	24	48	73	33	C+	532
Jonathan Zusman	Jr.	C	57	33	86	59	62	79	11	21	20	74	83	68	B-	653
Robert Ludwig	So.	C	69	21	56	71	48	60	6	2	27	31	58	46	C-	495
Joseph Higgins	Fr.	C	57	15	58	60	36	35	8	13	36	26	71	62	D+	477
David Penn	Fr.	PF	27	8	7	17	25	27	5	22	2	43	75	72	C	330
Averages	-	-	57	45	40	56	34	38	34	35	34	52	75	62	-	564

Name	Yr.	Pos.	Flex	Motion	Triangle	Fastbreak	Man	Zone	Press
Wayne Hill	Jr.	SG	D-	D-	A	C-	C-	A+	D-
Allen Towery	Sr.	PF	D-	D+	A	D-	C-	A+	D-
Jonathan Zusman	Jr.	C	D-	D-	A	D-	D-	A	D-
Lawrence Rentz	So.	PG	D-	D-	A-	C-	C-	A-	C-
Johnny Rose	Sr.	PF	D-	D-	A-	D-	C+	B+	D-
James Cooley	So.	PG	D-	D-	B+	D-	C-	B+	C-
Jeffrey Ewing	Fr.	SG	D-	C-	B+	D-	D-	A-	D-
Daniel Marshall	Sr.	SF	D-	B	B+	D-	B+	A-	D-
Dale Rhoton	Sr.	SF	D-	D-	B+	B+	B	A-	B
Robert Ludwig	So.	C	D-	D	B	D-	C	B+	D-
David Penn	Fr.	PF	F	F	B	F	C-	B-	D-
Joseph Higgins	Fr.	C	C-	F	C+	F	D+	B-	F

In this game Chapman used a 2-3 (-3) defense and slowdown tempo for both halfs and I used a half-court press/2-3 (0) for both halfs as well. Despite my advantage in speed and IQ, along with them using a slowdown tempo, we committed 23 fouls over the course of the game, which isn't unrealistic considering that the game went into double overtime. However, my opponent having comparable IQ's and only a little better team defensive rating, fouled 17 total times and didn't commit their seventh foul of the senond half until the 2nd overtime although using a -3 defensive positioning against a faster team using a normal tempo. Luckily, my opponent only went 13-23 in FTs.

2nd Example (Rochester):

Name	Yr.	Pos.	A	SPD	REB	DE	BLK	LP	PE	BH	P	WE	ST	DU	FT	TOT
Jesse Williams	Sr.	PG	66	77	1	69	3	18	36	73	60	47	84	65	B+	599
Jeffrey Elders	Jr.	PG	51	64	2	52	2	1	56	57	73	36	88	26	C+	508
Edward Donohue	Fr.	PG	42	71	1	27	1	23	52	65	43	30	72	39	C	466
Samuel Cyr	So.	SG	51	51	4	49	2	40	90	51	56	43	66	45	B-	548
Michael Mansour	So.	SG	60	71	45	67	17	47	20	38	21	28	75	32	C-	521
Ryan Gray	Fr.	SG	47	68	12	35	16	17	38	45	43	89	82	92	C+	584
Derrick Thomason	Sr.	SF	61	49	56	69	26	88	58	41	43	75	77	83	C+	726
Bryan Hosley	Jr.	SF	62	47	52	77	36	66	40	58	48	73	83	46	B+	688
Michael Thomas	Sr.	C	57	25	94	80	81	31	17	34	31	89	80	58	B-	677
Peter Maxwell	Jr.	C	52	31	87	15	46	91	15	20	19	49	66	77	C	568
Percy Taylor	Jr.	C	70	38	70	79	76	40	1	3	46	67	84	34	B-	608
Curtis Kerns	So.	C	63	24	74	59	62	9	7	27	26	58	72	55	C-	536
Averages	-	-	57	51	42	56	31	39	36	43	42	57	77	54	-	586

Name	Yr.	Pos.	Flex	Motion	Triangle	Fastbreak	Man	Zone	Press
Jesse Williams	Sr.	PG	D-	A	C	D-	A-	B-	D+
Jeffrey Elders	Jr.	PG	D-	A-	D-	D-	A-	D-	D-
Edward Donohue	Fr.	PG	F	B-	D	F	B-	D+	D+
Samuel Cyr	So.	SG	D-	A-	D-	C-	A-	C-	D-
Michael Mansour	So.	SG	C-	B+	F	F	B+	C-	F
Ryan Gray	Fr.	SG	D-	A-	D-	D-	A-	D-	D-
Derrick Thomason	Sr.	SF	D+	A+	D-	D-	A-	B-	D+
Bryan Hosley	Jr.	SF	D-	A+	D-	D-	A	B-	C
Michael Thomas	Sr.	C	C-	A+	D-	D-	A	B	D-
Peter Maxwell	Jr.	C	C-	A-	D-	D-	A-	D-	C-
Percy Taylor	Jr.	C	D-	A	D+	D-	A	D-	C-
Curtis Kerns	So.	C	D-	B+	D-	C+	A-	D-	C-

In this match-up my opponent used a man (-3) defense and slowdown tempo for both halfs, while I used a half-court press/2-3 (0) for the first and a half-court press/2-3 (-2) for the second half. Although only having nine eligible players (Cyr, Gray, and Kerns were ineligible) and using a -3 defensive positioning against a team with comparable IQs and speed, my opponent committed 18 fouls; while we committed 24 fouls (3 intentionally) despite the similar IQs and slowdown offense. Unfortunately for me, my opponent won by going 27-33 in FTs, despite my team dominating both offensively and defensively.


Given all the factors previously mentioned, I don't think that simply running a half-court press should be the factor that is most likely responsible for causing this disparity in fouls.

Also, all of my players fatigue settings are fairly fresh, except Manfredi's.
  

You would likely get more responses to something like this if you put it into the appropriate forum... i.e. the main HD forum. I don't think many ever even look at this one and if something is really off that would be a better spot...