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Good stuff, stine.

mmt, etc. ... the numbers speak for themselves. Over the last 10 seasons, the DI population has shrunk hugely (by an average of 40 teams across the five worlds above), while the D2 population has pretty much maintained.

Posted by girt25 on 9/14/2011 6:56:00 AM (view original):
Good stuff, stine.

mmt, etc. ... the numbers speak for themselves. Over the last 10 seasons, the DI population has shrunk hugely (by an average of 40 teams across the five worlds above), while the D2 population has pretty much maintained.

Girt...you must live in a different reality than the rest of us...your continued  will to want to see things differently than what they are is laughable...In three of the worlds above the losses from the peak of DI and DII were bascially the same...in another both saw big losses (although DI's was 51 compared to 24 in DII) and in the last DII gained jobs while DI lost...to say D2 has pretty much maintained is flat our BS.

The biggest shocker is the dramatic loss of people in DIII, one world lost 95 another 208 and another 125...Did you ever think that recruit generation at DI might not be the issue and it might be a general lack of interest in HD? Is it coincidental that there has been zero attention paid to the game by WIS?  It seems from the little I read from the forums...its always the same 2 or 3 people complaining about recruit generation, but there is an across the board anger about the lack of input from the administrators...

Im done with this conversation, Ive wasted to much time on it...WIS will do whatever they feel is in the best interest of the game, and I'll simply adapt to any changes made.

Posted by mmt0315 on 9/14/2011 8:46:00 AM (view original):

Posted by girt25 on 9/14/2011 6:56:00 AM (view original):
Good stuff, stine.

mmt, etc. ... the numbers speak for themselves. Over the last 10 seasons, the DI population has shrunk hugely (by an average of 40 teams across the five worlds above), while the D2 population has pretty much maintained.

Girt...you must live in a different reality than the rest of us...your continued  will to want to see things differently than what they are is laughable...In three of the worlds above the losses from the peak of DI and DII were bascially the same...in another both saw big losses (although DI's was 51 compared to 24 in DII) and in the last DII gained jobs while DI lost...to say D2 has pretty much maintained is flat our BS.

The biggest shocker is the dramatic loss of people in DIII, one world lost 95 another 208 and another 125...Did you ever think that recruit generation at DI might not be the issue and it might be a general lack of interest in HD? Is it coincidental that there has been zero attention paid to the game by WIS?  It seems from the little I read from the forums...its always the same 2 or 3 people complaining about recruit generation, but there is an across the board anger about the lack of input from the administrators...

Im done with this conversation, Ive wasted to much time on it...WIS will do whatever they feel is in the best interest of the game, and I'll simply adapt to any changes made.

mmt, I don't know what you do in your day job, but I hope it doesn't involve analyzing data.

The overall DI population went from 886 to 684, a drop of 40 coaches per world. Hopefully you're not debating the fact that this is huge.
The overall D2 population went from 780 to 751, a drop of only six coaches per world. (And particularly over a time when the game was neglected, more or less a wash.)

These numbers don't sort of support what myself, OR, etc. have been saying -- they support it exactly.

And trust me, I've led the charge re: neglect from seble, et al. I would never suggest that isn't a problem, and is certainly the biggest factor in the lack of new blood in D3. We're on the same page there.

DIII can not be used in this discussion unless the free-HD promotions are removed.  IBA gains 115 DIII teams in #43 (a promotion) and loses 140+ the next season.
MMT you seem to be the one using the numbers (screwed up ones anyway), to support your misguided opinions.

Allen:
D1 = 123
D2= 156
D3 = 116

Wooden:
D1 = 120
D2 = 156
D3 = 149

Phelan:
D1 = 125
D2 = 109
D3 = 89

Phelan D3 is...

Posted by zags27 on 9/14/2011 10:11:00 AM (view original):
DIII can not be used in this discussion unless the free-HD promotions are removed.  IBA gains 115 DIII teams in #43 (a promotion) and loses 140+ the next season.
MMT you seem to be the one using the numbers (screwed up ones anyway), to support your misguided opinions.

Seriously this is a joke...One, I have no clue what season the change went into affect and he didnt even use the same time frame for each world for whatever reason...but being fair in our "statistical analysis" lets use the most recent season, compared to 10 seasons prior across all worlds provided.  This way the same basis is being used across the board:

Ill leave out DIII despite the dropoff being astronomical.

                                          DI                      DII
Naismith Seaon 45     194                    208   
                Season54     144                    155
                Net Change  -50                     -53

Iba          Seaon 43      183                    199
                Season 52   126                     139
                Net Change  -57                     -60

Crum     Season 39    178                    189
               Season 48    127                    165
               Net Change   -51                     -24

Tark       Season 49     142                   156
               Season 61     142                   145
               Net Change   0                       -11
For whatever reason he didnt include season 58 in his numbers.

Knight  Season 32      129                 125
             Season 41       145                 147
                                        +16                 +18

The number are almost indentical to one another over the identical 10 year period, so spare me...it amazes me people's inability to see what is right in front of them.  Girt, while its none of your business what I do for a living, these are numbers that dont involve complex data analysis and I hope you don't get paid to breakdown something children learning first grade math would be capable of.

These numbers dont even take into account the numbers of people leaving DIII (In some cases net change is over 100) and how many of them actually ended up in DII. Granted the same could be said about DII to DI but the numbers leaving DIII are more than double.   

Posted by girt25 on 9/14/2011 9:30:00 AM (view original):

Posted by mmt0315 on 9/14/2011 8:46:00 AM (view original):

Posted by girt25 on 9/14/2011 6:56:00 AM (view original):
Good stuff, stine.

mmt, etc. ... the numbers speak for themselves. Over the last 10 seasons, the DI population has shrunk hugely (by an average of 40 teams across the five worlds above), while the D2 population has pretty much maintained.

Girt...you must live in a different reality than the rest of us...your continued  will to want to see things differently than what they are is laughable...In three of the worlds above the losses from the peak of DI and DII were bascially the same...in another both saw big losses (although DI's was 51 compared to 24 in DII) and in the last DII gained jobs while DI lost...to say D2 has pretty much maintained is flat our BS.

The biggest shocker is the dramatic loss of people in DIII, one world lost 95 another 208 and another 125...Did you ever think that recruit generation at DI might not be the issue and it might be a general lack of interest in HD? Is it coincidental that there has been zero attention paid to the game by WIS?  It seems from the little I read from the forums...its always the same 2 or 3 people complaining about recruit generation, but there is an across the board anger about the lack of input from the administrators...

Im done with this conversation, Ive wasted to much time on it...WIS will do whatever they feel is in the best interest of the game, and I'll simply adapt to any changes made.

mmt, I don't know what you do in your day job, but I hope it doesn't involve analyzing data.

The overall DI population went from 886 to 684, a drop of 40 coaches per world. Hopefully you're not debating the fact that this is huge.
The overall D2 population went from 780 to 751, a drop of only six coaches per world. (And particularly over a time when the game was neglected, more or less a wash.)

These numbers don't sort of support what myself, OR, etc. have been saying -- they support it exactly.

And trust me, I've led the charge re: neglect from seble, et al. I would never suggest that isn't a problem, and is certainly the biggest factor in the lack of new blood in D3. We're on the same page there.

I dont analyze data for a living and I pray that you dont either...because if your conclusions are based on the overall date he provided you'd be a failure at your job considering how much is missing from same.

mmt - you gotta go back further in the 2 a day worlds than 10 - I am guessing, but at 28 days per season, and a year and a some odd change months in the books since recruit generation came on board, I would guess 15 seasons back in worlds 8,9,10.  Some pretty maticulous analysis was done more around the time of the change, I thought 60 was the approx number that I came up with, I see nothing in the data to change my mind on that.  Also, I think you are seeing the effects of free HD, not only on d3, but also on d2, a small one, but look at naismith season 44 vs 45, a jump of 40 in d3 and 41 in d2, while d1 only jumped 8.

Season: 45	194	208	254
Season: 44	186	169	214

Just to add one more thing about change in this game.  If Girt or mmt  or I were in charge of the game, all of us would have to make choices and decisions that some coaches would not agree with.  Changing this game should never be a popularity contest among the coaches, but should be done with the game's best interest at heart. 

I know many of you do not speak highly of Tarek, but I think he excel'd at trying to do what was right for the game, damned the consequences, not popular, but not exactly wrong either.  From my dealings with him, he really understood the game, I once recall being mad at him about some minor point, his response was something along the line there are about two dozen coaches who know the details of playing the game better than I do, my record vs some of you as a coach speaks to that, but ..... I have to do what is best for everyone, given my POV.   He got me with that one, I have tended to cut him slack ever since.  

I have not spoke highly about Seble since he took over, some of that is because I liked Tarek, but I also  felt he simply was working off a to do list of complaints when he started with no regard for the big picture.   But ..... at this point, I think Seble is coming around.  I actually think the one year break was good for him, and having to re-write the code put him in that 'knowing' position that none of us possibly can repudiate.  So I am just going to go with the flow for a while, 'it is what it is' so to speak!

mmt, I've watched you get your butt kicked all over in this conversation, dating back to the other thread. (And also watched as your responses have become nastier and nastier the more you get your clock cleaned.)

What you've been saying doesn't make sense and isn't supported by facts.

It is very clear that you think you know a lot more than you actually do.

Or --- Funny, I was just taking a look at that to be as fair as possible.  Change went into affect in May of 2010. So without taking into account where each specific world was at that time, the change needed to be looked at would be 10 seasons for the one game a day worlds (So the above data I used above is accurate or close to it) and 17-18 seasons for the 2 day a game worlds (those numbers werent provided).

Yes, free HD had a part but how big is unknown.  We also, dont know what % dropped, stayed moved up etc...therefore it is an inexact science...but atleast in the 1 day worlds the numbers over that 10 season period are nearly identical, for Girt or anyone else to pretend otherwise is flat out BS...I'd be curious to see what the numbers in the 2-day worlds are also.

In any case, as I said in the other forum --- even if the numbers in DI stayed exactly the same, meaning no coaches dropped at all, it would not change the fact that there is a problem at the mid major level, if there is a drop off in numbers which coincided with DI midmajors struggling it only supports my point that they are more competitive when they are full.