How effective are runners? Topic

oddson
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Is a player who has a line of .250-.260avg .310obp. .380 slg. 130sb 5cs worthy of a starting position. Forget position and defense. Just consider hitting. Thoughts????
9/19/2011 8:09 PM
torrone
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How did he get on base enough to steal 130 bases?
9/19/2011 8:43 PM
oddson
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assume the info is correct, is this player worthy of a starting position
9/19/2011 11:06 PM
dwoolery
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A guy like that over 650 PA should generate something like 90-100 RC. So, yeah, I'd find a starting role for that player.
9/19/2011 11:39 PM
mhulshult
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Assuming 600 AB, if you add 130 total bases to a .380 SLG, that turns into .597 SLG.  With .310 OBP, that's .907 OPS.  Not bad for a guy that's probably pretty cheap.
9/20/2011 8:38 AM
dedelman
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Posted by bripat42 on 9/19/2011 10:08:00 PM (view original):
Good question, torrone. The math doesn't really add up on this one. A .310 OBP is going to put the guy on base about 200 times, give or take -- unless this guy never gets a day off. Plus, a .380 slugging percentage with a .250-.260 average translates to maybe 15 home runs and 25 doubles or so -- 70-plus extra bases or so, depending on how you break it down. So, that means this guy is standing on first base maybe 160 times or so. Plus, throw in a few errors, fielder's choices, etc., and you can bump that number by a few times on base but not much. Let's say 170 for argument's sake. Then, figure in how many of those times whe he reaches first another runner already will be on second. And, well, to attempt 135 steals this guy basically will have to run EVERY CHANCE he gets. It could happen, but it's improbable.

Look at Rob Rose, season 12.  If you can steal 110 in 170 times on base, you can probably steal 130 in 200 (a .310 OBP over 645 PA).  HBD is weird in that way-- it would obviously never work in real life.

EDIT--  Rose has less power than the hypothetical guy, so my logic isn't perfect.  Still, you could get 690 or so PA out of leading the hypothetical player off every day, and then it could happen.  I would never place those exact projected stats on a player, but they could happen in a single season for a guy with the right ratings.

9/20/2011 4:37 PM (edited)
Crump123
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If someone reaches 1st 170 times, they have the potential to steal 510 bases, 2B,3B and Home.
He's not stealing 2nd 130 times, hes stealing 2nd, 97 times, 3rd 30 times and Home, 3 times.

Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Archie Harrison

See easy.
9/21/2011 7:21 AM (edited)
nmmi
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They can be very effective.  Just ask Pheidippides

9/21/2011 12:48 PM
Jtpsops
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I just inherited a player who was 1 for 21 in SBA last season.  I think it's safe to say he won't be going anywhere this season.
9/24/2011 7:31 PM
How effective are runners? Topic
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