I have a couple questions:

1. Does HBD use the same engine as the baseball SIM to determine the outcomes?  I am guessing so since I saw someone post the same decision tree in HBD.

2. Do the ratings correlate to stats in the SIM?

Contact = 1B/100AB?
Power = HR/100AB?
Batting Eye = BB/100PA?
Baserunning = SBA/100SBO?

What about vs. LHP and vs. RHP?  Does it correlate to anything like RC or RC/27?

Thanks for any help

No.  No. 

There are more moving parts in HBD. 

Versus Righty or Lefty in issolation would have little value.  Conversly, RC/27 is everything. 

Contact and BE work together for strike out rates and walks...ect

i would say look at historical ML performances by veteran players, and for player ready to break into the majors look at historical performances of players with similar ratings.  there's really no "one size fits all" method of projecting production based on ratings.

Thanks.

Posted by deanod on 11/21/2011 4:24:00 PM (view original):
i would say look at historical ML performances by veteran players, and for player ready to break into the majors look at historical performances of players with similar ratings.  there's really no "one size fits all" method of projecting production based on ratings.

Despite his "rangzzz", I'd disagree somewhat with the last statement. I don't pretend to have reverse engineered the ratings into a guarantee of future production, but it's worth tinkering with. If you compare enough players and their production you can look at a players ratings and have a pretty good sense of where his career line is likely to fall.

I'd say that you can guess with some certainty, but park factors and level of competition are such huge variables, imo, that you'll only drive yourself crazy.

Unless you're looking at players from that particular world, then you might have a fighting chance.  But there's no "global" prediction that I'll buy into.

I agree, there are variables, lots and lots of them, so you will never know with certainty, but that shouldn't prevent you from trying because it will probably get you closer to useful forecasts than those who don't go through the same exercise. There are many owners besides myself who have "formulas" for translating ratings into production. They are not meant to be perfect, they're meant to land you somewhere in the fat part of the bell curve.

I don't use my formula to predict what the stats will be.  I use it to "rank" my players in terms of OPS.   It's reasonably accurate in that the top guy on the list will have my highest OPS and the bottom guy will have the lowest.  I break it down VL/VR.    It works with all of my teams despite varying factors from world to world.  I wouldn't bother trying to figure out what their OPS would be.

Why not? You can get reasonably close, and once you have a forecast for OPS, you can forecast RC, and with that you can get a pretty good estimate of what your W-L record might look like.

Because of all the variables.  I can't project which pitchers I'll face and I won't try to predict what other teams have.  I just need to know who my best players are.