I am a low DI prestige team trying to improve. My team is Old Dominion in Rupp. 

I have chosen to pursue lower rated / unranked recruits that are in the 500-530 range but have high / high-high potential versus higher rated players with good potentials that would require a significant battle against teams with much higher prestige ratings.

Looking at my team now, I have a first team of SO/JR starters with mostly SO/JR backups. With those high potentials turning red, I am trying to assess whether my strategy was sound or makes any sense at all.

My team can be found here:

http://www.whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=4421


If anyone is willing to take a look, here are my questions:

1. Does this team have a shot at competing with better teams over the next three seasons (this one and the next two)? My OOC schedule is pretty weak (by choice) and I play in a conference with only a few human coaches. Is this team good enough to weather an OOC filled with good opponents?

2. Does my recruiting strategy make any sense at all? I got sick of losing expensive battles with B prestige teams in a crowded mid-Atlantic region. I basically have to spend 2x to local B-prestige teams to have a shot. I have much less competition for the 500-530 guys with great high-high potentials in key areas.

3. I inherited the unbalanced classes (or at least I think I did). Does it make sense for me to have so many backups that all seem okay but not great, especially given that I run a motion/man? If you were going to cut someone to even out the classes, who would you cut? Right now, Boddie seems to be my third center on a team where he likely will always be my third center.

Any help is greatly appreciated.

Thanks,

Tim 

I think its an ok young team - but I can't see any of the potentials. I hope there are still a couple blues and a few whites/blacks in there yet.

1. I would not try to play any very good opponents yet. Concentrate on beating the other humans in your conference (weird that you are all 4 on the same half of the conferences). You need to be going 10-0 vs those sims and at least split with those humans. You need to focus on winning the CT, which should be attainable. You have as good a team as any of the other humans there. I know RPI is less important in the new game, but it is still a key factor to consider, and it is one you can influence. For next season I suggest you use the Rankings -> Team Rankings -> sort by class Jr. and search all the other conferences to find sim coached teams (preferably ones that don't run press) with many juniors. Next season those will most likely be sim coached teams with many seniors. Schedule these schools on the road, and then go beat them. That should give you a reasonalby challnging scheudle (these sr filled sims aren't pushovers) and a decent RPI going into conference play. Then sweep your sims and split or better with the humans and take them down in the CT.
2. Your recruiting strategy is great, as long as those sophomores still have some room for growth - otherwise the kids don't have enough high-high...If you can keep finding HH pot lower rated players you'll be able to consistently make the post season and grow your prestige. Once you become a B level school you'll need to adjust your focus and strategy a bit.
3. I would not cut any of your current players (but again I can't see potential). I would set your lineup up like this:

PG: Alarcon/Hatcher/Nguyen
SG: Douglas/Ames/Nguyen
SF: Foster/Vaughn/-empty-/Nguyen
PF: Zywiec/Walker/-empty-/Boddie
 C: Calhoon/Walker/Boddie
Feel free to sitemail me more specific questions if you'd like.

Thanks for the feedback, dacj501. The problem that I have encountered with some of the sophomores is that those high-highs are now average potential. I may be able to bleed enough out of them to get the core ratings high enough, but it will be close. The juniors are pretty much tapped out and red across the board.

Your lineup recommendations are interesting. Thanks again for the help!

Tim 

np Tim,
remember average can still mean 19 points - if you know when they switched you'll know pretty close to where they'll finish...

Other than the lack of true PG, I think that team is pretty solid.   I think it is a low end NT high end PT type of team.

1. I'd agree with Trenton on this season. I see you as a possible first round NT winner next season with the right matchup. No more than that though. The 3rd season, probably a PI team with a low seed unless you get that auto bid. I don't see you winning your first round game if you get NT your 3rd season though.

2. Your recruiting strategy is dead on. If you get that PI/NT/PI 3 year run, you'll get up to a C or C+ which will allow you to snag those one star players you probably aren't getting right now.

3. I wouldn't cut anyone. And the class breakdown is actually optimal. It allows for two decent seasons, one miserable one, and one possibly great one. That's enough to boost your prestige where you can get better players when your big recruiting class comes around.

I'd just suggest next big cycle you recruit more defense. With a C prestige, you should be able to get 85 D guys. 65D is what I shoot for on my D2 teams.

Thanks for all of the feedback -it is extremely helpful.

Regarding near-term tournament expectations, PI/NT/PI would be a big win for me.

Regarding PG - Definitely agree that I don't have a great PG. I am hoping that Nguyen will be that guy. RS FR that should end up (based on current potential) at around 80-85ATH, 93+SP, 95DEF, 35PE, 75BH, 90P, 75-80ST. 

Thanks for the feedback on class breakdown and recommendations against cutting anyone - makes sense.

Defense is a mixed bag for me - my recruits typcially have DEF > 40-50 with high or high-high potential. For a couple of them, that high-high ended up on the lower end of the spectrum and topped out in the 70s. Which is supposed to happen sometimes when I take the gamble everytime on potential.  

Just keep in mind our recommendations on cutting people was based on class breakdown and assuming they can ball. If their potentials aren't there, having a guy marinate on your bench for 2-3 seasons who sucks isn't worth the 15k recruiting money you are missing out on.  Especially if you see a prestige bump coming at the end of the season where you can get a better guy.

As far as defense goes, its just my opinion that the bottom of the scale should be 60 with high potential. Your team should be 80's D across the board, not an average either. Having a 99 defender is great, but having a 55 defender next to him just means that guy is going to get exploited. With better prestige giving access to better recruits, you should be able to hit that mark. 70 D will allow you to beat up your conference mates, esp sims, but to compete with the big boys, you gotta D it up. Top teams' dominating spd/ath is hard to overcome, and D is the only way to even pretend to do it.

GL this season. Maybe you could post at season's end how you ended up.

This team can compete now imo, borderline NT team. And looking at ratings growth, it looks like there are still lots of room for improvement. Team should hit 700+ by next season, and if you schedule right, this is a lock for NT. 

Tianyi - Thanks for the feedback on scheduling. I tried to schedule bad sim teams in BCS conferences recently because I thought it would improve my SOS, but as you stated, it actually hurt it. I will keep your recommendations in mind when setting next season's schedule.