so, looks to me like seasons 40-42 were protected as your first three
but, none of those earned you any upside - no meaningful positives in wins, postseason or rpi
so what happened in season 43? 16 wins which is okay, but not great, no postseason, weak rpi. I bet that that season was bad enough to knock you down one step - which it did.
these steps only change between seasons so 13-5 wont make a difference right now, but I expect that a trip to the PIT - esp if you can win a game there - should knock you back up to meeting expectations. A trip to the NT surely would. What if you dont get to the postseason? Now, that I dont know. Lets say that you end up 18-8 in regular season and dont do enough in the CT to get to the PIT .....like what if you end up 19-9 with an RPI of 96 and dont get to the PIT?
thats hard to know. I doubt that that a season like that will push you up. I bet it will just leave you where you are, but it could push you down another notch.