I'm thinking about putting together a team together to play in Kaufman field or Hilltop Park (low HR, high doubles/triples park), nabbing high slugging, low-HR hitters (think ty cobb, tris speaker, or honus wagner) and outfielders who have sky-high range factors (to limit opponents' ability to beat me at my own game). Looking at range factors, though, it looks like some of them might be skewed by small parks (2002 Darin Erstad, for example.

Is there a ballpark normalization factor that is going to kick in if I draft certain high-range outfielders? And will a park that favors extra base hits like Kaufman in fact create more opportunities for outfielder range + plays? Does grass vs. turf matter (Kaufman stadium vs. Royals Stadium)?

First, I am not sure what you mean by skewed by small parks.  Range factors seem to be absolute-- they don't seem to be normalized.

In a park that favors XBH, range should be more useful since each hit you take away will, on average, be worth more.  I do not think that having rangey outfielders versus rangey infielders will necessarily make a difference as the sim decission tree indicates that the determination of a plus play is made before the hit type (and location).

Gras versus terf makes no difference in the sim.  The only stadium numbers that directly affect play are hit modifiers. 

Ah, found booger's post with the decision tree. Big help.

I tried a team with high range OFers in the Palace of the Fans. Some time ago, someone posted something that posited that the park dimensions have an impact. The high range guys will make plays other OFers would not make. The team did well, '73 Billy North made more than 60 plus plays in CF. The problem with that philosophy lies in the fact that range is expensive, I did it in a 120m cap league.

Posted by pfattkatt on 1/25/2012 1:09:00 PM (view original):
I tried a team with high range OFers in the Palace of the Fans. Some time ago, someone posted something that posited that the park dimensions have an impact. The high range guys will make plays other OFers would not make. The team did well, '73 Billy North made more than 60 plus plays in CF. The problem with that philosophy lies in the fact that range is expensive, I did it in a 120m cap league.

SIXTY (60) PLUS PLAYS IN THE OF????

That has to be a record

Posted by pfattkatt on 1/25/2012 1:09:00 PM (view original):
I tried a team with high range OFers in the Palace of the Fans. Some time ago, someone posted something that posited that the park dimensions have an impact. The high range guys will make plays other OFers would not make. The team did well, '73 Billy North made more than 60 plus plays in CF. The problem with that philosophy lies in the fact that range is expensive, I did it in a 120m cap league.

What was your pitching like?  There is definately an interaction between pitching and plus or minus plays...

Are you talking about k/9 and balls in play or something else....

How is the likelihood for a plus play calculated? If you hold pitching constant, will maximizing the sum of range factors maximize plus plays? Or are there other factors that come into play?

Taking the lowest range factor A+ player's range and highest range factor D player's range at each position gives you the following:

Position	A+	D	Difference
1B	10.74	9.11	1.63
2B	5.91	4.88	1.03
3B	3.6	2.81	0.79
SS	5.64	4.68	0.96
OF	2.81	1.8	1.01

What I'm thinking is that positions that have a larger difference in range factor between a good and bad player would give you the most "bang for the buck" in terms of plus plays when choosing a player with a great range factor. This would suggest that the letter grade range score matters most (by far) at first base, and least at third base. Am I approaching this correctly?

Posted by jimkelley87 on 1/27/2012 6:24:00 PM (view original):
How is the likelihood for a plus play calculated? If you hold pitching constant, will maximizing the sum of range factors maximize plus plays? Or are there other factors that come into play?

Taking the lowest range factor A+ player's range and highest range factor D player's range at each position gives you the following:

Position	A+	D	Difference
1B	10.74	9.11	1.63
2B	5.91	4.88	1.03
3B	3.6	2.81	0.79
SS	5.64	4.68	0.96
OF	2.81	1.8	1.01

What I'm thinking is that positions that have a larger difference in range factor between a good and bad player would give you the most "bang for the buck" in terms of plus plays when choosing a player with a great range factor. This would suggest that the letter grade range score matters most (by far) at first base, and least at third base. Am I approaching this correctly?

Your theory would work if all positions had an equal number of plays to make. However, many more baseballs are hit up the middle than in the corners. So 1B range isn't actually very important at all. (I generally do ignore 3B range, though, because even a D won't make more than 5 or 6 "-" plays a year, in general.)

+/- plays are "capped" at 30. Anything beyond that is luck/manipulation.

they say that, but I see guys in the upper 30's frequently enough in progressive leagues....there's little manipulation there.

Posted by Trentonjoe on 1/27/2012 7:44:00 PM (view original):
they say that, but I see guys in the upper 30's frequently enough in progressive leagues....there's little manipulation there.

weak pitching in progressives... more balls in play... more chances... more plays made...

You think it leads to 20% more balls in play?   I bet I could find  10 examples  of 35+ plays w/o looking to hard..

Rank	Name	SN	Pos	GP	GS	+	-	Inn	PO	A	E	DP	Fld%	RF
1	Lindell, Johnny	1944	LF	140	140	43	3	1,234.0	375	5	6	0	.984	2.771
2	Landis, Jim	1959	CF	162	162	42	0	1,360.0	452	5	4	0	.991	3.023
3	Mays, Willie	1954	CF	162	162	41	0	1,407.0	483	9	3	1	.994	3.146
4	Rivera, Jim	1952	CF	160	160	38	0	1,347.0	501	23	10	1	.981	3.499
5	Busby, Jim	1954	CF	162	162	37	0	1,443.0	447	7	5	0	.989	2.830
6	Ashburn, Richie	1956	CF	162	162	37	1	1,440.0	453	4	9	0	.981	2.855
7	Bruton, Bill	1955	CF	162	162	36	1	1,400.0	490	9	11	1	.978	3.208

Rank	Name	SN	Pos	GP	GS	+	-	Inn	PO	A	E	DP	Fld%	RF
1	Lemon, Chet	1977	RF	162	162	39	2	1,405.0	312	7	12	0	.964	2.042
2	Curtis, Chad	1994	CF	162	162	37	0	1,380.0	417	11	2	2	.995	2.791
3	Murphy, Dwayne	1982	CF	148	148	35	1	1,320.0	442	13	9	0	.981	3.101

1	Paskert, Dode	1913	CF	144	142	41	0	1,230.0	351	5	8	1	.978	2.604
2	Speaker, Tris	1910	CF	159	159	41	0	1,385.0	410	9	19	0	.957	2.723
3	Collins, Eddie	1910	2B	162	162	37	0	1,459.0	543	535	26	108	.976	6.647
4	Maranville, Rabbit	1914	SS	162	162	36	1	1,376.0	355	524	46	67	.950	5.748
5	Paskert, Dode	1910	CF	149	147	36	0	1,271.0	385	4	17	2	.958	2.754
6	Cutshaw, George	1913	2B	162	162	36	0	1,355.0	479	474	31	72	.968	6.330

That's 3 league's.....60ish seasons, 16 examples of 35 or more + plays.   (Some of these may be before the  RF muting update....but not many) 

Posted by uncleal on 1/27/2012 7:35:00 PM (view original):

Posted by jimkelley87 on 1/27/2012 6:24:00 PM (view original):
How is the likelihood for a plus play calculated? If you hold pitching constant, will maximizing the sum of range factors maximize plus plays? Or are there other factors that come into play?

Taking the lowest range factor A+ player's range and highest range factor D player's range at each position gives you the following:

Position	A+	D	Difference
1B	10.74	9.11	1.63
2B	5.91	4.88	1.03
3B	3.6	2.81	0.79
SS	5.64	4.68	0.96
OF	2.81	1.8	1.01

What I'm thinking is that positions that have a larger difference in range factor between a good and bad player would give you the most "bang for the buck" in terms of plus plays when choosing a player with a great range factor. This would suggest that the letter grade range score matters most (by far) at first base, and least at third base. Am I approaching this correctly?

Your theory would work if all positions had an equal number of plays to make. However, many more baseballs are hit up the middle than in the corners. So 1B range isn't actually very important at all. (I generally do ignore 3B range, though, because even a D won't make more than 5 or 6 "-" plays a year, in general.)

Does the sim take account of this? Zubinski suggested above that plus/minus plays are determined prior to the location of the hit (such that high-range outfielders wouldn't necessarily be taking away more extra-base hits).

Range factor for a first baseman is almost an irrelevant stat, because they get put-outs for any ground ball out (and range factor = [PO + A]/G). I would expect that the ground ball rate of pitchers would be the most important determining factor in a first baseman's range factor. For example, Albert Pujols in 2005 had one of the highest range factors at first base in recent history, but that can be attributed in no small part to high GB/FB ratios for Chris Carpenter and Mark Mulder in that year.

That said, though, I don't know how the Sim factors in range - if first basemen do generate a lot of plus plays, then it sounds like it would be worth looking at guys with high range (though that would have to be traded off against hitting, since first base is by leaps and bounds the best hitting position).