Quick question for you veteran progressive owners:

I have seen a few league classifieds that mention using a Projected vs Actual Performance gauge in determining draft order for progressive leagues. The leagues I have been involved in personally have always used just the standard win floor and/or a lottery format (some weighted, others not), so I have never seen the Projected vs Actual format in practice. I'm intrigued by the concept, but also curious as to how it works.

Can someone give me a quick rundown of how projected performance is determined? Is it simply a formula based on team salary/avg league salary? How exactly is the outcome used to determine draft order?

I imagine there have been several manifestations of this type of draft rule, so if anyone can provide a few concrete examples of how different versions play out, it would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks!

The one I use (and a few other leagues as well), uses a formula that is based on a team's salary relative to the league with weighting to account for interleague games and the fact that a team never plays itself.

Here's the formula:

TeamSal= Each team's salary averaged out over 9 snapshots across the season

LgSal= Each leagues salary averaged (median) out over same 9 snapshots across the season

OppLgSal= Opposing leagues salary averaged (median) out over the same 9 snapshots across the season

(%)=  ((((LgSal*(138/162))+(OppLgSal*(24/162)))-TeamSal)/LgSal)

AcW= each team's actual wins during the season

ExpW= ((81*-(%)+81)

Multiplier= (1+(%))

AdjW= (AcW*Multiplier)

TrgtW20= ((ExpW+(ExpW*0.2))/Multiplier)

TrgtW30= ((ExpW+(ExpW*0.3))/Multiplier)

Score= ((((AdjW-ExpW)/AdjW)*100))

The score is what determines each team's draft position and TrgtW20 and TrgwW30 are just goals for how many wins a team would need to reach to achieve a score of 20.00 or 30.00, respectively, which would basically assure them of a top 5 or top 2 pick (based on historical data from over 30 seasons of the formula in use).

This is copied from a discussion from an early season in one of my leagues, but I thought it might be helpful... it's not complete as these leagues have all played a few more seasons...

Explanation of Draft Standings:

More or less the points are a reflection of what % you are over/under achieving based on your expected wins... Your expected wins ... are based on your salary relative to the league. All the team salaries are averaged and the median is figured -- a team with a salary equal to the median league salary is estimated or expected to win at a .500 W%.

The wins are then adjusted based on the salary again to reflect the fact that a team with the lowest salary in the league will never play itself and will only play teams with higher salaries and vice versa (this could be calculated to be exact for each team, but I figured the formula was already complicated enough and this does a good job in a rough estimate). Factoring all of that in, a team with a score of 20.00 overachieved by 20% and a team with a score of -20.00 underachieved by 20%.

Your team, the Cardinals, are expected to win 47 games after adjusting, so if you win 38-39 games you will meet your expectation after adjusting for salary. Doing so would give you a score of 0.00 since you didn't under or over achieve.

Past winning scores were (and scores over 20.00):

Original J4M:
1969: 22.55
1970: 23.19
1971: 18.40
1972: 28.71, 21.31, 20.72
1973: 27.24, 23.71, 21.89
1974: 23.31, 23.27
1975: 12.95
1976: 21.17
1977: 42.73, 36.06, 29.01, 22.72
1978: 35.12, 31.67
1979: 28.10
1980: 31.54, 24.05
1981: 34.83, 25.17
1982: 22.78, 22.36
1983: 44.54, 30.53, 21.51
1984: 25.43, 24.39
1985: ???
1986-1988: Used modified version for simplicity

Centenary League:
1974: 29.57
1975: 56.57, 30.83, 24.99, 20.02
1976: 27.79, 21.85
1977: 27.79, 21.85
1978: 26.09, 21.61, 20.81
1979: 18.86
1980: ???
1981: ???
1982: ???
1983: ???
1984: ???
1985: ???
1986: ???

Davkar League:
1975: 27.23, 22.22
1976: 33.87, 30.21, 28.32, 23.67, 21.94
1977: 21.80
1978: 20.34
1979: 28.08, 24.83, 24.68
1980: 18.01
1981: ???

J4M2K:
2001: 27.12
2002: 28.29
2003: 22.24
2004: 31.04, 26.59, 21.11
2005: ....

J4MS:
1969: 27.95, 26.13
1970: 20.25

So, if you want to see what it might take to win a score of 30 would pretty much assure you a lock for the first pick... a 30 would mean over achieving by 30%. 30% over 47 would be 61 wins (adjusted), which works out to 50 unadjusted wins for you (1.22 multiplier since your team's salary is 22% below the league average salary). A score of 24 would have won in 7 of the previous 21 years, which would be 47 unadjusted wins... only 39 teams in the previous 21 years have reached a score of 20 or higher (an average of less than 2 per season), so 10 of 39 with a score of 20 got the 1st overall pick, but a score of 20 or higher has resulted in a top 5 pick in every season. In the example above 46 unadjusted wins would give you a 26% chance at the first pick.

I have added the TrgtW column to the standings so that everyone can see what number of wins they should try to reach to achieve a score of 20.00, and thus essentially guarantee themselves a top 5 pick.

Here are some recent results from a scattering of leagues using the formula:
J4MS:
Game 162

	Team		Salary	Ac W	% +/- $	Exp W	Multiplier	Adj Wins	Trgt W	Score
1	Houston Astros	N	$70,338,643	98	-2.35%	83	97.65%	96	107	15.43
2	Pittsburgh Pirates	N	$73,688,685	105	-7.17%	87	92.83%	97	109	12.27
3	Cleveland Indians	P	$57,220,963	69	12.39%	71	112.39%	78	75	9.28
4	Minnesota Twins	P	$65,272,236	87	-0.10%	81	99.90%	87	97	7.20
5	Chicago White Sox	P	$63,645,956	80	2.42%	79	102.42%	82	92	3.67
6	Milwaukee Brewers	P	$63,253,187	77	3.03%	79	103.03%	79	93	1.01
7	San Francisco Giants	N	$68,906,020	82	-0.29%	81	99.71%	82	98	0.65
8	San Diego Padres	N	$58,965,992	61	14.02%	70	114.02%	70	73	-0.13
9	Philadelphia Phillies	N	$68,845,572	79	-0.20%	81	99.80%	79	98	-2.86
10	Detroit Tigers	P	$68,993,224	88	-5.87%	86	94.13%	83	110	-3.41
11	Atlanta Braves	N	$65,669,842	69	4.37%	77	104.37%	72	89	-7.03
12	Los Angeles Dodgers	N	$81,544,664	107	-18.49%	96	81.51%	87	141	-9.12
13	Chicago Cubs	N	$70,004,409	76	-1.87%	83	98.13%	75	101	-9.62
14	Oakland As	P	$75,278,893	100	-15.62%	94	84.38%	84	131	-9.91
15	Baltimore Orioles	P	$73,997,174	96	-13.63%	92	86.37%	83	127	-9.92
16	Boston Red Sox	P	$69,004,706	82	-5.89%	86	94.11%	77	109	-10.03
17	Montreal Expos	N	$66,367,660	66	3.37%	78	103.37%	68	91	-12.84
18	New York Mets	N	$82,273,887	104	-19.54%	97	80.46%	84	145	-13.57
19	California Angels	P	$62,575,848	64	4.08%	78	104.08%	67	84	-14.26
20	St. Louis Cardinals	N	$79,640,838	95	-15.74%	94	84.26%	80	133	-14.62
21	Cincinnati Reds	N	$53,911,282	44	21.30%	64	121.30%	53	63	-16.27
22	Texas Rangers	P	$56,768,612	50	13.09%	70	113.09%	57	73	-19.67
23	New York Yankees	P	$83,492,988	109	-28.37%	104	71.63%	78	173	-24.91
24	Kansas City Royals	P	$62,821,077	56	3.70%	78	103.70%	58	90	-25.55

J4M2K:

Team Salary Ac W  % +/- $ Exp W Adj Wins Trgt W Score
Toronto Blue Jays 73841364.91 82 0.08 74.8 88 83.4 18.01
Colorado Rockies 76971519 90 0.01 80.5 91 96.1 12.38
St. Louis Cardinals 76751852 88 0.01 80.3 89 95.6 10.51
Cincinnati Reds 86496630.73 105 -0.08 87.5 97 114.2 10.29
Anaheim Angels 76561322 82 0.04 77.5 86 89.2 10.27
Baltimore Orioles 92652411 117 -0.16 93.7 99 133.4 5.24
New York Mets 74580834 79 0.04 78.0 82 90.3 4.98
Detroit Tigers 80569879 86 -0.01 81.6 85 98.6 4.69
Pittsburgh Pirates 75879399 81 0.02 79.4 83 93.4 4.06
Texas Rangers 81630063 85 -0.02 82.6 83 101.2 0.79
Chicago White Sox 67372365 59 0.16 68.3 68 70.8 -0.07
Milwaukee Brewers 80531323 82 -0.01 81.5 81 98.5 -0.08
Kansas City Royals 79734830 80 0.00 80.7 80 96.6 -0.57
Tampa Bay Devil Rays 66406333 57 0.17 67.3 67 69.1 -1.05
San Diego Padres 87003800.09 103 -0.12 91.1 90 124.9 -1.07
Philadelphia Phillies 90675519 107 -0.17 95.0 89 137.8 -6.79
Atlanta Southerners 82560754 86 -0.07 86.4 80 111.2 -7.17
Chicago Cubs 75827572.27 67 0.02 79.3 68 93.3 -13.81
San Francisco Giants 72407936 61 0.07 75.7 65 85.3 -14.21
Oakland As 85974372 80 -0.07 87.0 74 112.8 -14.86
Florida Marlins 79018623 70 -0.02 82.7 69 101.4 -17.13
Boston Red Sox 89030839 84 -0.11 90.1 75 121.7 -17.20
Minnesota Twins 95248319 90 -0.19 96.3 73 142.6 -24.25
Los Angeles Dodgers 59591395 23 0.23 62.2 28 60.6 -54.47

Centenary:

Game 120

	Team		Salary	Ac W	% +/- $	Exp W	Multiplier	Adj Wins	Trgt W	Score
1	Montreal Wolves	N	$63,377,038	61	10.00%	54	110.00%	67	56	24.25
2	Boston Minutemen	P	$70,824,688	72	0.46%	60	100.46%	72	71	21.11
3	Chicago Machine	P	$69,261,187	65	2.65%	58	102.65%	67	70	14.24
4	Philadelphia Falcons	N	$65,089,060	58	7.56%	55	107.56%	62	60	12.47
5	Washington Statesmen	P	$75,622,339	76	-6.26%	64	93.74%	71	84	11.75
6	Oakland Assassins	P	$64,103,153	54	9.87%	54	109.87%	59	58	9.72
7	Detroit Ponchartrains	P	$71,226,836	65	-0.10%	60	99.90%	65	74	8.11
8	San Francisco Slate	N	$70,365,328	64	0.03%	60	100.03%	64	73	6.74
9	Seattle Cascades	P	$65,362,034	54	8.11%	55	108.11%	58	62	5.89
10	New York Nighthawks	P	$74,553,064	66	-4.76%	63	95.24%	63	75	0.01
11	Cleveland Elephants	P	$83,203,606	83	-16.87%	70	83.13%	69	95	-1.61
12	Chicago Blues	N	$66,677,293	53	5.29%	57	105.29%	56	59	-1.79
13	Los Angeles Superbas	N	$70,899,749	59	-0.73%	60	99.27%	59	74	-3.09
14	Cincinnati CRYPTKEEPERS	N	$73,801,839	62	-4.87%	63	95.13%	59	75	-6.26
15	San Diego Padres	N	$76,678,647	65	-8.97%	65	91.03%	59	90	-9.50
16	California Trappers	P	$71,667,848	54	-0.72%	60	99.28%	54	76	-11.28
17	Pittsburgh Coffee Roasters	N	$69,003,343	49	1.98%	59	101.98%	50	66	-15.04
18	Houston Armadilloes	N	$90,210,332	91	-28.26%	77	71.74%	65	128	-15.17
19	Baltimore Damage	P	$75,112,569	55	-5.54%	63	94.46%	52	78	-17.96
20	Atlanta Rebels	N	$69,901,977	48	0.69%	60	100.69%	48	70	-18.88
21	St. Louis Beelzebufos	N	$84,745,130	72	-20.47%	72	79.53%	57	109	-20.78
22	Minnesota Muskrats	P	$71,593,148	47	-0.61%	60	99.39%	47	70	-22.62
23	KC Cow Pies	P	$60,450,195	34	14.99%	51	114.99%	39	56	-23.35
24	New York Titans	N	$60,957,675	33	13.45%	52	113.45%	37	50	-27.91

Wow. Awesome! Thank you for all of the data. This is exactly what I was looking for.

The owners will tank in any pro league. This formula is good but when you trade a player for a 1st round pick they will tank so that you get a low pick rather than a high pick. Every pro league has it's cheaters who tank so you just have to deal with it. They always find a way to cheat the system. I have tried to figure out a way to eliminate tanking but I think most simmers aren't interrested in them cuz they want to see how much they can cheat! That's the truth.

Posted by snydpie on 2/3/2012 10:36:00 PM (view original):
The owners will tank in any pro league. This formula is good but when you trade a player for a 1st round pick they will tank so that you get a low pick rather than a high pick. Every pro league has it's cheaters who tank so you just have to deal with it. They always find a way to cheat the system. I have tried to figure out a way to eliminate tanking but I think most simmers aren't interrested in them cuz they want to see how much they can cheat! That's the truth.

Someone does that, call them out, people will be less prone to trade with them... I've never seen anyone do that before in any of the leagues I've been in or run... and I'm normally a fairly active trader, and I've never felt cheated or that I was having the owner I traded for a pick from tank so that i would get a worse pick... I'm sure it's bound to happen sometime, somewhere, but call them out in the league and ask what's up. If they are, they'll try to prove they're not and start winning, or they'll say so what. If they're not, they'll explain what's going on, call you names or think your stupid.