D1 MWC/Big Sky Challenge Topic

Guys, here's the proposal for a two game challenge using last year's RPI for rankings. 

Game #6 North vs. North / South vs. South  - Last Season RPI in () (Big Sky Home & listed 1st)
Port St (92) vs. Utah (20)
Montana (154) vs. TX Southern (43)
Idaho St (155) vs. TX Christian (62)
E. Wash (204) vs. Denver (204)
Sac St (259) vs. New Mex (198)
Montana St (313 SIM) vs BYU (240)
Alcorn St (38) vs San Diego St (60)
PV A&M (82) vs N Texas (67)
Jackson St (159) vs. Air Force (91)
Weber St (176) vs UNLV (128)
N. Arizona (220 SIM) vs Col St (222)
Southern (274) vs Wyoming (260 SIM)
 
Game #8 North vs. South / South vs. North (MWC Home and listed first)
Utah (20) vs. Alcorn St (38)
TX Southern (43) vs. PV A&M (82)
TX Christian (62) vs Jackson St (159)
Denver (204) vs. Weber St (176)
New Mex (198) vs. N. Arizona (220 SIM)
BYU (240) vs Southern (274)
San Diego St (60) vs. Port St (92)
N Texas (67) vs. Montana (154)
Air Force (91) vs. Idaho St (155)
UNLV (128) vs. E. Wash (204)
Col St (222) vs. Sac St (259)
Wyoming (260 SIM) vs. Montana St (313 SIM)
3/30/2012 11:42 AM
I'm going to pass on the challenge. I don't see much value in this when the conf disparity is this big, especially when +- 1 win can greatly affect whether a team goes to the NT/PIT, or PIT/no Post season play, especially for my team. 
3/30/2012 12:19 PM (edited)
Well maybe we could hold off for now until the Big Sky catches up with MWC conference wise? 
3/30/2012 1:13 PM
I'm talking over Alcorn St Schedule.
3/30/2012 1:55 PM
I'm confused on how this is supposed to work, but I'd probably be okay with taking the games if the teams that are playing me offer them.
3/30/2012 11:46 PM
i just pretty much requested the entire conference...we'll see who says yes...
4/2/2012 5:06 AM
It was going well now I think guys are going is a different direction. I have my games scheduled and a couple of guys do also so the games that are scheduled those are the games that will count
4/3/2012 10:25 AM
Posted by tianyi7886 on 3/30/2012 12:19:00 PM (view original):
I'm going to pass on the challenge. I don't see much value in this when the conf disparity is this big, especially when +- 1 win can greatly affect whether a team goes to the NT/PIT, or PIT/no Post season play, especially for my team. 
classic tianyi. just play some more sims bud
4/4/2012 11:45 AM
Posted by dwoelflin07 on 4/4/2012 11:45:00 AM (view original):
Posted by tianyi7886 on 3/30/2012 12:19:00 PM (view original):
I'm going to pass on the challenge. I don't see much value in this when the conf disparity is this big, especially when +- 1 win can greatly affect whether a team goes to the NT/PIT, or PIT/no Post season play, especially for my team. 
classic tianyi. just play some more sims bud
must be nice to sit at your ivory tower of A++ prestige looking down at everyone.

And of course, going 10-0 non conf hurts my team and my conf mates, because you schedule so tough yourself when you don't have A++ prestige. At least hypocrisy is good and alive in HD: http://whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/Schedule.aspx?tid=12160

http://whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?TopicID=448399&TopicsTimeframe=30


4/4/2012 4:38 PM (edited)
I agree with you dwoelflin but I'm not Coach of the Century.
4/4/2012 1:50 PM
Posted by iwanturmind2 on 4/4/2012 1:50:00 PM (view original):
I agree with you dwoelflin but I'm not Coach of the Century.
What's the point of personal insults and name calling? I simply said I don't want to compete as part of the challenge and when you and indiansrck asked for a reason, I provided with one, and an independent analysis by Rails explaining why going 10-0 is good for the whole conf in terms of SOS, which affects RPI, and thus, placing more teams in the NT and PIT.

dwoelfin can schedule whoever he wants because he's at A+ prestige, recruit the top recruits, and will make the NT regardless of the schedule he sets up. The stronger his nonconf is, the more likely he's going to get a #1 seed, because he's heavily favored in every game he plays. This is not the case for any of the teams in Big Sky. 

Scheduling away games v. SR heavy simai teams is a common, and effective strategy for midmajors. Heck, even top tier teams use this strategy to gain an edge in rpi:

http://whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/Schedule.aspx?tid=13907 (Maryland, ACC, A prestige)
http://whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/Schedule.aspx?tid=13828 (Duke, ACC, A+)
http://whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/Schedule.aspx?tid=13913 (Miami, ACC, A+)
http://whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/Schedule.aspx?tid=13814 (Connecticut, Big East, A)

Mid majors such as Marquette, Depaul, etc. all schedule this way. The list goes on and it works.
 
Let's stick to the facts rather than namecalling iwanturmind2. If you want to discuss the merit of both sides, read Rail's analysis and explain to me why it's wrong. If you can show that purposely losing 15-20 games in nonconf is good for getting more teams into the postseason, I'm game and would definitely join this challenge. 


4/4/2012 2:06 PM
Here is the fact. You can go 10-0 without scheduling sims.  It's called playing teams in your lane and coaching.  You can schedule 8 sims and schedule two MWC teams that you can beat and go 10-0.  Yes the sims may be easier but If I recall your not going 10-0 every season in Non Conference.  Also with the BIg Sky now having 10 coaches those teams will be better in NC play with better RPI's.  We had to schedule like this before and if you recall most seasons I'll come into conference with RPI's in the 50's to 70 range then lose to a 180 RPI Weber State or play 220 Sac. St and not get into any tourny.  WIth the new coaches I think this will change.  So I respect Rail's info and look at the schools.  Maryland, Duke, Miami, UCONN.  Those schools can play 80 % of the Div 1 schools and with the talent they will win every time.  I used to play OU, UCLA, Iowa, Fl St. every season once in a while I'll actually win.  I beat OU on the road once.  My greatest victory.  I wasn't worried about RPI's at the time I just like the challenge.  I feel that both conferences will benifit with this challenge and you showing me stats is good but reality is there are more than one way to skin a cat.
4/4/2012 3:23 PM
Now after looking at the links that you posted you made my point for me. UCONN and Miami have 5 cupcakes then they play 5 good schools.  That is what I'm saying you can have 8 cupcakes and then play two MWC schools.  That will help your RPI in the long run and only Mayland has 10 sims.  They have a balance and it's the best way to produce the best RPI.  You have to challenge yourself and scheduling Sims only is not the end all be all.  Also calling you coach of the year is not name calling and I'm going on the facts that you provide.
4/4/2012 3:31 PM
Posted by iwanturmind2 on 4/4/2012 3:23:00 PM (view original):
Here is the fact. You can go 10-0 without scheduling sims.  It's called playing teams in your lane and coaching.  You can schedule 8 sims and schedule two MWC teams that you can beat and go 10-0.  Yes the sims may be easier but If I recall your not going 10-0 every season in Non Conference.  Also with the BIg Sky now having 10 coaches those teams will be better in NC play with better RPI's.  We had to schedule like this before and if you recall most seasons I'll come into conference with RPI's in the 50's to 70 range then lose to a 180 RPI Weber State or play 220 Sac. St and not get into any tourny.  WIth the new coaches I think this will change.  So I respect Rail's info and look at the schools.  Maryland, Duke, Miami, UCONN.  Those schools can play 80 % of the Div 1 schools and with the talent they will win every time.  I used to play OU, UCLA, Iowa, Fl St. every season once in a while I'll actually win.  I beat OU on the road once.  My greatest victory.  I wasn't worried about RPI's at the time I just like the challenge.  I feel that both conferences will benifit with this challenge and you showing me stats is good but reality is there are more than one way to skin a cat.
Obviously I don't agree with your analysis that losing 1-2 games to MWC is good for my team (which I will because I invariably am paired with Utah and TSU).

The ACC as a conf went 119-1 in nonconf play in Allen, by playing a cake schedule, with many teams having SOS in the 100-200 range, and some teams having SOS in the 200+ range. All of these teams ended up with SOS in he 20-50s, rpi around 10-30, and made the NT. The only team that didn't make it are because they didn't secure 14 total wins.

Let me ask you this simple questions, when you play a team in conf, would you rather have the team be 20-0 or 0-20? Obviously, you would prefer 20-0 because it helps your SOS, and your rpi. This is the extreme but applies to this situation because it's better to face a team in conf play that has won 10 nonconf games as opposed to 8 nonconf games. 

You are right I have only gone 10-0 in nonconf once at Alcorn State, but I try to schedule games that I have a realistic shot of winning. If a midmajor like Troy, Stephen F. Austin, or Coppin State schedule me, I am going to accept. This is why I played SFA last season and Coppin State this season (at home, btw). I'm not going to accept challenges to play at home by UNC or Duke because it's 100% guaranteed loss. Why would I do this when it gives me an additional loss, and when I go into conf play, reduces my conf mate's SOS because I could have easily avoided this loss? 

Last season, had I scheduled a little softer and won 2 more games in nonconf (going 8-2 as opposed to 6-4), I could have lost somewhere in the CT and still make the NT, while allowing another Big Sky team to the big dance. 

I am unsure why you are making such a big fuss out of all this and calling me names. I have never agreed to this challenge and wasn't aware of it until I saw this forum, with challenge schedules, and my team being part of this schedule. I politely said I am not interested and didn't offend you, or any coach in either conference. You asked for a reason why, I provided you with one explaining why scheduling teams I will lose to is bad, so I decline the challenge. 

# of wins affect your team prestige, which is another reason why I don't want to take guaranteed losses. 

And of course, you were being 100% sincere with your "Coach of the Century" comment, in caps...I don't feel like going into all this with you again. I am not going to force you to schedule soft nor any other coach to schedule soft, so please stop trying to force me into this challenge. I am not interested.



4/4/2012 3:48 PM (edited)
I'm not forcing you into this challenge I'm just making a case.  It would be stupid to schedule UNC, Duke as I said the talent level with those schools is big.  My thing is that I making a case of playing (AS I SAID - TEAMS IN YOUR LANE) meaing in english.  Teams you have a shot of beating.  I didn't even make the schedule one of our conference mates made it in respect to RPI's most teams agreed with it but at the same time Alcorn State is one of the better schools in the Big Sky (respect due) and it would make the challenge complete because of your stature and name. 

You don't have to play and I'm not forcing you to.  I'm making the case of playing real coaches each season instead of just 10 sims.  I schedule how I see fit.  I accept challenges.  Look for Big 6 Schools that coaches just left and once in a blue moon I'll schedule OU, Iowa, Miami with the hopes of getting a upset.  I wished that all the Big Sky schools were 20-0 I would of got in the NT last season as an at large bid instead of getting beat by Ok St in the PIT who I did beat during the season last year and in ex but that didn't count becuase they are rebuilding this season.
4/4/2012 3:59 PM
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