I have somewhat of an odd draft in one of my leagues, lots of health concerns at the top of the draft. I have 20/20 scouting, this is how I ordered the top 3 picks:

#1 - 19 years old - L/L SP, good splits, great velocity and gb/fb average pitches (but better overall pitches
than #2). The safest pick (I think) out of the three. 60 health.

General & Fielding Ratings
Event	Season	Height	Weight	OV	RA	GL	AS	AA	PC	DU	HE	SP	PA	TP	MK
Current	-	6-2	178	66	18	12	84	48	0	27	60	11	26	50	83
Projected	-	6-2	197	83	20	17	93	69	1	32	68	11	33	50	89

Batting & Pitching Ratings
Event	Season	CN	PW	LH	RH	BE	BR	BU	PP	ST	CT	LH	RH	VE	GB	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5
Current	-	16	9	12	25	13	20	50	86	66	73	66	63	71	68	65	55	42	56	28
Projected	-	21	9	16	35	13	26	73	90	90	88	80	75	81	76	78	65	51	67	34

#2 - 18 years old - L/L SP, better splits, incredible velocity and gb/fb. Two very good pitches and 2 very bad pitches. Much less developed than #1. 51 health, but good makeup and patience so maybe an injury wouldn't effect him that much?

Event	Season	Height	Weight	OV	RA	GL	AS	AA	PC	DU	HE	SP	PA	TP	MK
Current	-	6-3	200	54	19	22	56	34	7	28	51	18	74	44	73
Projected	-	6-4	224	85	24	38	69	55	11	32	55	18	99	44	81

 

Event	Season	CN	PW	LH	RH	BE	BR	BU	PP	ST	CT	LH	RH	VE	GB	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5
Current	-	11	2	11	19	20	12	37	62	56	52	57	45	77	68	69	62	16	22	0
Projected	-	17	2	19	32	26	21	60	66	76	96	89	74	94	84	87	79	28	31	0

 

#3 - 18 years old - R/R 2B, very good vs RH, but he hits RH. Average power, average vs LH. I'm stacked at 2B and CF.

Event	Season	Height	Weight	OV	RA	GL	AS	AA	PC	DU	HE	SP	PA	TP	MK
Current	-	5-10	168	53	62	58	46	45	0	52	55	93	40	51	93
Projected	-	5-11	184	91	80	86	55	66	0	88	59	96	57	51	97

Event	Season	CN	PW	LH	RH	BE	BR	BU	PP	ST	CT	LH	RH	VE	GB	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5
Current	-	54	59	42	60	52	33	58	42	25	7	0	0	0	15	47	0	0	0	0
Projected	-	93	75	65	99	67	59	98	47	29	12	1	0	1	16	59	0	0	0	0

1, 2, 3.

1 and 2 are both SP1's, not ticketed to be perennial Cy Young candidates but fine at the top of the rotation.  2 "projects" higher but the projected gains are unrealistic even in light of your $20M in scouting; remember that 1 could probably put up an ERA in the low 5's in the majors right now, so that's a lot of catching up for 2 to do.  My best guess is that they will be of very similar quality when they "grow up."  So I'd rate the one with the higher health higher.

Even though they are both significant injury risks, they're both better than 3, who is an occasional all-star 2B, a better than average starting 2B, but not a true stud.  Again, all the skills for 3 that project to over 90 (CN, VsR, Bunt) will probably not even get to 90.

I would definately take #3.  I think that guy is going to be a perennial all star 2B.  With 20 scouting I trust the projections pretty well.  Id bet that he will hit 90 for those three ratings.  And his defense COULD be good enough to be a CF.  With a bat that good playing CF (and not that badly I might add) is a gem that comes once in a blue moon in this game.  With a current MK of 93 and SP of 93 too, this guy will flat out RAKE!  And the possible 75 power makes it even better.  If he was only going to have a 20something power Id take one of the SPs, but with that power and speed and CN he will hit doubles and triples like nobodies business, and he will hit 30 HRs on a great year,  20 every other year.  Id be insanely happy to have him on any of my teams.

Posted by greeny9 on 4/10/2012 7:34:00 PM (view original):
I would definately take #3.  I think that guy is going to be a perennial all star 2B.  With 20 scouting I trust the projections pretty well.  Id bet that he will hit 90 for those three ratings.  And his defense COULD be good enough to be a CF.  With a bat that good playing CF (and not that badly I might add) is a gem that comes once in a blue moon in this game.  With a current MK of 93 and SP of 93 too, this guy will flat out RAKE!  And the possible 75 power makes it even better.  If he was only going to have a 20something power Id take one of the SPs, but with that power and speed and CN he will hit doubles and triples like nobodies business, and he will hit 30 HRs on a great year,  20 every other year.  Id be insanely happy to have him on any of my teams.

I agree with most of what you're saying, the only thing is. He's a RH batter, and RH pitchers do fairly well against RH batters (the good ones at least). The other thing is the chances of him gaining +39 vs RH is slim.

He is only 18, he will almost definitely gain 30 your 20 scouting has to mean something.  However with the 55 health there is a decent chance of a major injury at some point... but then all 3 guys have that issue.  And I contend that the 2B will be worth more to a franchise then a #2 SP.  (I wouldnt say they are #1s on a real contender).  I believe that if you are 90vsR you are going to kick butt, especially when you have a 90s CN and a 70s PW.

#3,   Health is a bit of a problem with all three, but only #3 has a chance to be a star player.  He has 96 speed, 97 makeup, contact that will be above 80, a vR that will be above 80 and mid-70's power.  And he plays CF.

#2 only has two pitches; that really negatively impacts a starter's production.

#1 is WAY better than #2.  He'll be a very nice starter.  He's the safest bet.

But if these guys are the top three picks available it is a pretty terrible draft.