My Rutgers team just finished up in Rupp.   We have all the makings of a NT team but I just don't see it.  We are 18-10 with a 52 RPI and 64 SOS.  We are projected 49 in the NT bracket.  However, look at my schedule and tell me who I beat.  My signature win is against Princeton.....Princeton.
Non-Conference
Opponent Record RPI SOS Coach Result  
at Wofford 16-11 128 105 Sim AI 83-70 w
Princeton 21-6 54 115 ajwalton 68-79 w
at Oakland 21-6 77 135 Sim AI 76-86 l
at Duquesne 16-12 157 156 nibroc88 62-52 w
at Indiana St. 18-9 112 113 timmytfk 82-57 w
at Murray St. 13-15 164 118 Sim AI 78-52 w
Minnesota 15-13 111 76 bmckay 64-75 w
UMass 12-16 199 186 dilo 58-79 w
at Missouri-KC 11-16 205 141 Sim AI 90-88 w
Gardner-Webb 16-12 149 160 Sim AI 56-87 w
Off Day  
 
Conference
Opponent Record RPI SOS Coach Spread Result  
at Cincinnati 18-9 50 66 molfenter even 76-88 l
Georgetown 20-8 36 36 msmckeehan even 91-79 l
#16 Pittsburgh 23-4 14 43 hbmerlin +3 84-72 l
at Connecticut 16-12 46 32 slyman9 +1 78-89 l
at Louisville 9-18 182 80 bigdave48 -6 80-65 w
at Providence 11-16 181 128 Sim AI -3 88-64 w
at #2 St. Johns 25-2 3 13 jake_marley +14 76-104 l
Cincinnati 18-9 50 66 molfenter -1 86-79 (OT) l
at #21 Syracuse 22-5 23 37 bcinsk +3 73-85 l
W. Virginia 11-17 155 85 ARomano -1 64-78 w
Louisville 9-18 182 80 bigdave48 -7 75-81 w
at W. Virginia 11-17 155 85 ARomano -3 80-65 w
Villanova 9-18 193 108 todd43615 -10 82-92 w
Off Day  
at #8 Pittsburgh 23-4 14 43 hbmerlin +8 69-91 l
Off Day  
Seton Hall 2-25 267 67 Sim AI -22 64-81 w
Providence 11-16 181 128 Sim AI -7 67-81 w
 
Conference Tournament
Date Opponent Record RPI SOS Coach Record Against Spread Result  
06/28/12 am vs. Seton Hall 2-25 267 67 Sim AI 28-28 -27 78-90 w
06/29/12 am vs. #15 Syracuse 22-5 23 37 bcinsk 15-45 +8 75-92 l
6/29/2012 3:46 PM
If the projection report has you at 49 you're probably in the last 4 in, but you could wind up in the first 4 out.  Depends how many mid- and low-majors had good enough seasons to be up there above you, there are usually just a very few, but you don't need many.
6/29/2012 3:52 PM
I dont think so based on no top 50 wins and 1 top 100 win BUT (this is a big but) the projection report is being kind so you might get in.

My answer is yes based on projection report if you drop below 53 in the projection report my answer is no.

Tell me what happens.

6/29/2012 3:54 PM
Not to be a dick, but I hope not. 

0-5 vs top 25
0-4 vs 26-50
1-1 vs 51-100

So 0-9 vs the top 50 and 1-10 vs the top 100.  Based on that, I think you should feel lucky if make the PIT.
6/29/2012 4:06 PM
That's my point,  I was shocked I was still projected to make the NT.   
6/29/2012 4:09 PM
Yeah, that's really weird.  He probably won't comment on this, but I'd like to see what seble would say about what part of your resume is bolstering your NT credentials.
6/29/2012 4:31 PM
Dropped to 50 in the projection report
6/30/2012 12:22 PM
you might be that high based on SOS alone joe. When I first started playing I noticed significant differences in RPI if your SOS is high, even if your record sucks and you have no significant wins.

Still, I don't see that in your teams case. 64 SOS is not usually high enough to do that. Maybe its an issue of relavance to the world. Maybe everyone else is not doing that well themselves, but I dont know.
6/30/2012 1:34 PM
im really surprised by this one. there is nothing that says NT team about the resume (as someone said, no offense). the biggest change i saw when seble tweaked this stuff, was a significantly increased importance on record vs top 50, top 100, etc (top 25/75 too maybe). given that, i am shocked your team is not well under RPI, in the projection report. 

i wonder if it could be win margin. your win margin is pretty big, but seble said SCORE in a game is a small factor (compared to non factor, before his change). makes no damn sense to me honestly. 
6/30/2012 2:52 PM
?If I was NC State in another world, I would be ******. Hopefully this NT bid (if you get it) will keep your boosters from complaining. I kid, I kid.
7/1/2012 12:25 AM
;)

I made it.   It looks like I was the last team in (14 seed, only conference champs behind me).

I think I screwed Marquette and Wake Forrest.
7/1/2012 6:26 AM

While you don't have any really good wins, it's also true that you don't have very many bad wins either -- almost all your wins are in 100-200 range. Couple that with no bad losses, and I don't think your profile is pretty much that of 2011-12 Drexel. At this point, it's pretty much an arbitrary decision based on what specific factors are emphasized.

7/1/2012 12:46 PM

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