College League Plus V Predictions / RECAPS Topic

natenoy
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Let's get the friendly banter rolling.......
7/31/2012 11:47 PM
natenoy
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Eastern Conference Atlantic Division

The favorite

St. John's Redmen above average 3’s; balanced usage; high shooting percentage; Chris Mullin should be a MONSTER scoring, 57 pct efg and highest usage on the team; 20 minutes a game of superstar rebounding in Jay Williams surrounded by other solid rebounders; prediction: looks like the division frontrunner and one of the favorites to make the finals.

The playoff contenders

UConn Huskies 938 threes is most I’ve ever seen but will likely face a plus 3 positioned defense from most teams in the league; highest usage guy is midrange player so it will be harder to exploit plus 3 matchups; defense is strong but below average rebounding; prediction: how opponents position def matchup will go a long way in determining UConn’s chances of success, looks like a solid contender for the 3 to 5 seed but likely can’t hang with St. John’s in division

Syracuse Orange very limited 3’s; Melo has higher usage than MailMan and shoots under 5o pct efg which will cost them some games; adequate rebounding; poor shooting team outside of MM; weak on def; prediction: looks just good enough to contend for a 5 or 6 seed but not the division.

The middle of the pack

Georgetown Hoyas very deep and strong rebounding; good shooting percentage; above average def; very limited 3’s; top usage player AI shoots 48 pct; only one 6 point usage player and only 2 4 point usage players, could lead to a lot of team usage penalties; prediction: could be a division contender, but poor performance from AI and usage penalties could also cost them a playoff spot.

Klemson Tigers above average threes; over 50 efg high usage Kobe, but he is only a 6 usage and team only has one 4 usage tier player, this team WILL be hit with the team usage penalty numerous times; average rebounding; very solid Def; big question is how much will the usage penalty hurt and how many individual penalties will Kobe get; prediction: borderline playoff contender, not really a contender for division title.

The longshot

DUKE BLUE DEVILS great shooting team, but lacks a ‘go-to’ guy, has no rebounding depth, limited number of 3’s and def ratings are weak; prediction: not a playoff contender.
7/31/2012 11:53 PM (edited)
natenoy
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Eastern Conference Central Division

The favorite

Wake Forest Demon Deacons below average 3’s; very strong def; top heavy rebounding but two elite tier guys, good shooting team since majority of shots will come from over 50 efg players; also top heavy with Paul in assists but others chip in some; prediction: 3-headed monster of Paul, Howard, and Duncan will cause nightmare matchup problems for opponents on both ends of the court, the ‘smart mark’ money will be on Wake to win the division and challenge St. Johns for a trip to the finals, make no mistake Wake is the chalk in this league.

The playoff contenders

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets below average def that includes a 100 rated anchor in Big Ben; solid group of shooters that should average low 50’s in efg; above average rebounding with top tier Wallace; one of the top 3-point shooting teams in the league; should cause headaches for opponents in def positioning as highest usage player is Bosh who plays more inside while next group of players are mid-range to perimeter shooters; prediction: team looks balanced enough to make a strong run at division title, but will only go as far as Bosh and Marbury can take them.

Alabama Crimson Tide #22 above average 3’s; strange mix of high efg and low efg players; above average rebounding; few assists; very strong defense; prediction: darkhorse for division title, solid playoff contender that I see as the 3 or 4 seed.

The middle of the pack

Big Blue Nation average 3’s; slightly above average def; slightly above average rebounding; top usage player has nightmare 44.9 efg; prediction: poor shooting of top two usage players must be balanced out by lower usage higher efg players; honestly looks like about a .500 team meaning will likely just miss playoffs or sneak in at the 6 seed.

THE Ohio State University above average 3’s; slightly above average def; very strong rebounding; only about 6 minutes a game of assists; almost 1000 minutes short so fatigue will become a factor; prediction: great defense should get this team off to a hot start, but lack of assists and fatigue will cause crazy numbers of turnovers down the stretch, I think this team will hit a prolonged losing streak at some point, likely to look likea contender out of the gate but fade below .500 by the end of the season.

The longshot

Maryland Terps - 7Pistols should lose opening game by 30 (just joking); average 3’s; strong defense; fairly poor shooting team; slightly above average rebounding and passing; real question is can strong defense balance out poor shooting; prediction: defense may win championships in real life but not in the sim; poor shooting will be team’s down fall; unlikely to have a winning record.
8/1/2012 12:14 AM (edited)
natenoy
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Western Conference Pacific Division

The favorite

This is by far the most balanced division with four teams having a legitimate shot at the division title, because of this balance it may be very difficult for all four teams to even make the playoffs as they will play a disproportionate number of games against highly competitive teams. It’s very difficult to pick a favorite on paper for this division and it is difficult to predict which of these four teams is most like not to reach the playoffs, it will be fun to watch unfold. Also, I predict the Western Conference to have a decisive advantage in inter-conference play.

The playoff contenders

UCLA BRUINS high number of 3’s; mixed bag of def with little def depth; very strong efg; team rebounding is a freak of nature with Nater, Love and Walton, play against this team and you had better make your shots because anyone not named Wallace or Wilt will have a difficult time getting a board against these guys; pretty light on ast but will have at least one solid ast guy on the court for most of the game; prediction: with such good shooting and freakishly insane rebounding it is hard to pick against this team as well, should be many, many very entertaining games out of this division, UCLA should pull enough wins out of division to cruise into playoffs, its seeding however will be determined by what happens in the 24 games against the other elite Pacific Division teams.

Kansas Jayhawks it would be hard to mess up a team that has the ONLY Wilt in a league; this team comes in with well above average 3’s as well, even though Wilt is lower usage he causes a nightmare matchup problem for opponents, the team starts three legitimate 3-point threats so it is hard not to play plus 2 or at least plus 1 def positioning, however, clearing out for Wilt makes it more likely that he will score or grab an offensive rebound, Wilt should run away with the rebounding title in this league; and will be in contention for the MVP; the teams def is slightly above average; it sports a lineup that has 48 minutes of a 6 point usage player and 48 minutes of a 2 point Wilt, making the usage penalty almost impossible; about 215 of the 240 scheduled minutes each game is of players with at least a 49.5 efg and with Wilt’s 68.3 efg this team will rarely shoot under 50 pct in a game; Wilt leads the rebounding charge and has adequate players to go with him; with Wilt’s 17.1 ast pct and a pg in the mid-20’s this team generally has a total of 60 to 70 ast pct on the floor, making it even more likely to make shots; prediction: if this team wins the division it will have to earn it, safe bet for a playoff shot, anything more is a coin flip.

UW LOVEs HUSKIES yet another team loaded with 3’s, although the 3’s are spread across six players which can be both good and bad since one guy may not give you high volume but other players will always be an option to shoot a 3; below average def with 9 guys under 50, this could be a serious flaw with the team; excellent shooting team with a good usage balance; also have a K Love and Walton which gives them advantage against all but UCLA on the boards; ast are on the low side; prediction: could come down to how horrible this def really is, may be in a lot of 135-134 games, over 24 games may not match up well with other elites in division, but will win a large share against the rest, slightly less probable to win than UCLA or Kansas, but a legitimate threat to still take the division.

Oregon State Beavers below average 3’s; very deep def with 7 guys at 60 or above; really solid Payton/Kareem combo for top two usage guys, 53.5 and 56 efg, hard to double team two guys and whichever one you don’t choose may go lights out against you; above average boards and weak on ast; prediction: how much is the Payton and Kareem combo worth is the question that will define this team, the supporting cast is adequate, team may have a tough time against this crazy schedule, if everything breaks their way could pull off division, or could go 2-22 against other three elite teams in division which would likely push them out of the playoffs.

The middle of the pack

ASU Sun Devils + Nobody a team with potential but in the wrong division at the wrong time; below average from 3; very balanced def with 4 guys in the 80’s and one at 70; likely usage penalty issues since one player is a .5, 3 players are a 1, and 7 players are only a 2, that’s 11 players at 2 and below with only one guy that is a 4, so any time the 4 is not on the court and one of the bottom 4 guys is, this team will be hit with the penalty; solid rebounding and virtually no ast; prediction: will be very hard-pressed to reach .500 given usage issues and difficulty of schedule.

The longshot

Jordan and the Utes well this team will be an interesting experiment in ‘how good’ MJ really is with virtually no supporting cast; nonexistent 3’s for this team; a handful of adequate guys on def; a few guys other than MJ with decent efg; one ok rebounder and Andre Miller feeding the ball to Jordan; prediction: it would likely take a miracle for this team to win even 20 games.
8/1/2012 3:42 AM (edited)
natenoy
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Western Conference Midwest Division

The favorite

Marquette Warriors a scary good team in a very brutal division; the threes are well above average with the over 2-a-game Novak who can hit 7 or 8 in any given night in the sim; plus this team has many others that are adequate from 3; def has two 100 anchors and two more over 70, should lead the league in lowest fg pct against ave; D Wade is on the 8 line for usage, so impossible to incur penalty anytime he is on the floor, at most 6 minutes a game of usage penalty exposure; team has superior rebounding and shooting; prediction: the clear favorite in the division, this team will be very difficult to beat, should get 60 plus wins without a problem and is a serious challenger for the title.

The playoff contenders

Minnesota Golden Gophers  others are jumping on the proverbial bandwagon already for this squad; team has solid 3’s; slightly above average def; very solid assists for 40 minutes a game, but the other 8 will be an issue; incredible shooting from its high usage players; and great rebounding; prediction: the one issue I have with this team is the potential for a usage problem and the team penalty, while it has three players with tier 4 points it also has three players with tier 1 and four players with tier .5, it will be hard to avoid combinations that do not incur the penalty; team as a whole will compete with IL and Marq near the top of division and has a shot to be the 3 or 4 seed.

Ma-Lign-I good number of 3’s; very balanced def; top heavy on assists but 37 minutes a game of a legitimate Deron Williams and his 34.2 ast should keep the ball moving on offense; MONSTER rebounder in Moses paired with solid boards from others; very strong efg from top two usage guys Moses and Deron; prediction: I only see one serious flaw with this team, top two usage guys are on the 4 point tier but the rest of the team has usage of 2 and below, meaning the team virtually MUST keep either Deron or Moses on the court at ALL times, this will be a challenge and team will likely lose a number of games they shouldn’t have because of usage penalty; even with penalty there is a huge cap between this team and others below it in the division, should contend for the 4 or 5 seed.

The middle of the pack

Oklahoma Sooners below average 3’s; strange mix on def with two guys over 91, two over 60, but only one over 50 and the rest below 50, when top guys are on the court team will have great def but 2nd unit will get trounced unless team plays one of top defenders with the bench guys; team is also trying to get cute with assists by playing the 400 min 46 ast pct under 40 pct efg Deron Williams, others have tried that nightmare before, expect him to go 0 for 5 or 1 for 6 most games, he is more of a negative than a positive; prediction: above average shooting, above average rebounds, and Blake will be fun to watch; however the strength of the top three teams in this division push the Sooners to the ‘middle of the pack tier’ could make the playoffs if things break the right way, but more likely to finish around .500.

LSU Fightin' Tigers close to average 3’s; about average def with a 100 def player that only plays a little over 600 minutes; near the bottom of the league in assists; great top guy in Shaq with 56.2 efg and 27 pct usage for over 3,000 minutes but 2nd highest usage player is a nightmare Pettit who has 26 usage and shoots under 45 efg; great rebounding; prediction: Shaq can’t do everything by himself, this team is riddled with poor shooters and will likely have one of the lowest fg pcts in the league; plus a lack of assists means more missed shots and more turnovers; team has too many flaws to be considered a serious playoff contender, especially in this division.

The longshot

Kentucky Wildcats below average on 3’s; 800 wasted minutes as noted in a previous post by cmcafeeky; solid defense; a majority of teams shooters are over 50 efg but highest usage guy Issel lacks any range and shoots under 50 efg; significant lack of rebounds; prediction: outstanding shooting just will not be enough in a division that is this stacked, would be ‘middle of the pack’ in the East but lack of rebounding will likely lead to a team that will be closer to 50 losses than 50 wins.
8/1/2012 1:32 AM (edited)
eleibowitz
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wow awesome job Natenoy!  Hope your right about Marquette, I think D is more pronounced in a lower cap league.  Hence my choice for using Marquette plus it look real cool to see two 100 point players
8/1/2012 6:43 AM
natenoy
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thanks for the props, i'm about to start a daily recap for individual games
8/1/2012 8:45 PM
natenoy
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GAME 1 RECAPS

Note I plan to write up a ‘newspaper style’ article for 2 to 4 games a day, rotating which teams get a detailed report. For the other games I will list the score, the game MVP, and the MVP’s points-rebounds-assists in that order.

Today’s lucky winner for detailed reports is the Central Division

Game of the day
142 Big Blue Nation at
143 Alabama Crimson Tide

In an overtime thriller Reggie King led the Crimson Tide to a one-point win over the Big Blue Nation. One could sense the tension in the air for this matchup of former SEC rivals. The Nation got out to a fast start building a ten point lead at the end of the 1st quarter, 32-22. After a pedestrian start the Tide chipped away at the Nation lead, making up 2 points in the 2nd quarter, 6 in the 3rd, and the last 2 in the 4th to force overtime.

The Nation actually led this game by 3 points with 1 second left, but Clyde Drexler came up with the most critical 3 of his team high 26 points with exactly one tick left on the clock. The Nation blew an opportunity to win the game at the end of regulation as Louie Dampier missed a simple pull-up jumper from 10 feet.

The overtime period went back in forth as well, with the game tied and 49 seconds left Dampier scored on a jump hook from the left block to take a 139-137 lead. However Robert Horry quickly answered the call 9 seconds later as he drained a three on an assist from Derrick McKey. The Nation still had a chance to win as time ticked down but Clyde Drexler came up with a critical steal with 17 seconds left. The Nation was forced to foul Drexler twice to put the Tide into the bonus, Drexler hit the first free throw to extend the lead to 2, he missed the 2nd free throw but Robert Horry came up huge again by grabbing the offensive rebound. The Nation was then forced to foul Drexler yet again with 8 seconds left. This time Drexler calmly went to the line and drained both shots. Cliff Hagan then hit a meaningless three at the buzzer to give the final score of 143-142.

Reggie King was named the game’s MVP as he shot 11 for 20 from the field and 2 for 2 from the line, scoring 24 points. However, aside from clutch play down the stretch the most critical factor in the Tide victory was the 24 rebounds hauled in by King, 7 of which were offensive. The Tide had a total of seven players score in double digits, Mo Williams and Horry each added 17 and Gerald Wallace added 19 to go along with is 10 rebounds. 

Five members of the Nation reached double digits in the losing effort and three scored over 20; Cliff Hagan with 29, DeMarcus Cousins with 23 and Dampier with 21.

Other games in the Central Division
135 Wake Forest Demon Deacons at
144 THE Ohio State University

This game went into overtime as well as the Buckeyes decisively pulled away from the Deacons in the OT period. The Buckeyes were led by game MVP Jerry Lucas who only took 8 shots from the field; he went 6 for 8 from the field and 5 for 7 from the foul line finishing with 17 points. The key contributions from Lucas were his 15 rebounds, 6 offensive and 6 assists, also the team turned the ball over 18 times but Lucas did not have one of the 18. Clark Kellogg added a very impressive 37 points on 15 for 29 shooting; he also chipped in with 10 boards. Andrew Bynum was the third Buckeye to go for a double-double as he added 15 points and 10 rebounds. And finally John Havlicek came one rebound shy of a triple-double finishing with 24 points, 10 assists, and 9 rebounds.

The Demon Deacons ‘three-headed monster’ of Chris Paul, Tim Duncan, and Dwight Howard each had a double-double in the loss. Paul scored a team high 27 and added 14 assists, both Duncan and Howard grabbed 12 rebounds apiece, Duncan added 24 points on 12 for 20 shooting and Howard added 15 points and 2 blocks.

116 Maryland Terps - 7Pistols at
138 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

This game was never close after the first quarter as the Yellow Jackets came up short of a predicted 30-point victory, however the team did ‘clear the bench’ with a 23-point lead in the last 4 minutes. Derrick Favors scored at the buzzer in the first quarter extending the Jacket lead to 40-29. The Terps spent the entire final 3 quarters down by double-digits, never managing to make a run to close the double-digit gap.

The capacity crowd stayed to the end, watching the show that was being put on by Jackets star Stephon Marbury. The crowd gave Marbury the customary ‘MVP, MVP, MVP’ chant late in the 4th quarter when he was connecting on one of his 4 of 5 shots from the line, he also added 12 for 21 shooting from the floor including 3 for 6 shooting from 3-point range. Marbury finished with a game high 31 points, 12 assists, and 3 steals. Marbury was named the MVP of the game.

Other Jackets that had huge nights included Dennis Scott who finished 5 of 9 from long distance scoring 26 points; Mark Price who scored 21 points on 8 for 10 shooting including 2 for 2 from behind the 3-point line, Price also added 10 assists and 7 rebounds. Chris Bosh was the 4th member of the team over 20 points as he added 23 points, 8 boards, and 5 assists. The final two major contributors on the night were Favors who scored 18 points in 19 minutes of work, and Big Ben who grabbed 17 boards and added 4 blocks and 6 points. The team as a whole ended up shooting 51.9 pct from the field and 57.9 pct from behind the arc going 54 for 104 and 11 for 19.

What led to the loss for the Terps was a very mediocre team effort, the team was 46 for 105 from the field or a dismal 43.8 pct. Steve Francis had a team high 24 points shooting below 50 pct from the field at 10 for 21. The team had one double-double and 5 players in double-digits in scoring. Lee Elmore just missed a double-double finishing with 9 points and 15 rebounds. Pistol Pete was a horrid 6 for 17 from the field but still managed to finish with 15 points, 10 rebounds, 6 assists and 5 steals. Walt Williams and Joe Smith each added 19 and Tom McMillen chipped in 10 in what was mainly garbage time.

Other results and game MVP’s

118 Georgetown Hoyas at
124 DUKE BLUE DEVILS
Elton Brand (DUKE BLUE DEVILS)  23-13-1

96 St. John's Redmen at
106 Klemson Tigers
Kobe Bryant (Klemson Tigers) 35-3-10

135 UConn Huskies at
140 Syracuse Orange
Carmelo Anthony (Syracuse Orange) 43-8-4

110 LSU Fightin' Tigers at
118 Kentucky Wildcats
Shaquille O'Neal (LSU Fightin' Tigers) 33-24-4

94 Marquette Warriors at
104 Ma-Lign-I
Moses Malone (Ma-Lign-I) 27-16-3

110 Oklahoma Sooners at
124 Minnesota Golden Gophers
Magic Johnson (Minnesota Golden Gophers) 23-7-14

87 Jordan and the Utes at
98 ASU Sun Devils + Nobody
Alton Lister (ASU Sun Devils + Nobody) 14-16-0

107 Oregon State Beavers at
139 Kansas Jayhawks
Wilt Chamberlain (Kansas Jayhawks) 27-28-8

139 UW LOVEs HUSKIES at
123 UCLA BRUINS
Kevin Love (UW LOVEs HUSKIES) 30-10-4

Featured games
142 Big Blue Nation at
143 Alabama Crimson Tide
Reggie King (Alabama Crimson Tide #22) 24-21-0

135 Wake Forest Demon Deacons at
144 THE Ohio State University
Jerry Lucas (THE Ohio State University) 17-15-6

116 Maryland Terps - 7Pistols at
138 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Stephon Marbury (Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets) 31-1-12
8/1/2012 9:11 PM (edited)
eleibowitz
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wow fantastic Natenoy and Roll Tide!
8/2/2012 5:59 AM
eleibowitz
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and very funny about Marbury lol
8/2/2012 6:14 AM
malone9975
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this lasted
8/11/2012 10:55 AM
natenoy
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I'd be happy for someone else the chip in, had a few RL things come up then had a few more leagues/drafts come up, underestimated the time it takes to do this as well.
8/11/2012 11:18 AM
College League Plus V Predictions / RECAPS Topic
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