do you have pablo and stall at -1? why? it makes it a lot easier to plan against your team because they are sort of 1 sided. i havent looked at your box score of the CT loss - but let me guess - you faced a -2 or heavier, didnt take many 3s, and your fg% suffered, and you lost? maybe combined with a slowdown?
ok, lets see how it looks. remember in the NT and to a lesser extent, the CT, people on average plan against you a lot harder - so the team planning/team setup mistakes you have made over the last few seasons often wait to bite you in the *** until the CT/NT. hmm, uptempo, but still - you faced a -2, and struggled. having more 3s would allow you to punish them for that - setting, or, cause them not to play it in the first place.the team you lost to really isnt bad, so not a huge upset or anything, was guessing it might have been - hence the slowdown guess - but that really has nothing to do with your obvious team setup blunder - 3 point shooting (which you SHOULD NOT have - thats why i call it a team setup blunder, not a team planning blunder. if you didnt have the capability then it would be a team planning blunder. but you do, and just aren't taking advantage of it).
anyway, your defense is really good, that is what should be making your team good. and lets see, your stat line, holding opponents under 40/30%, thats great! weak schedule, but still. to go with a strong defense - the foundation of any great team (defense wins championships), you still need enough quality offense and solid rebounding. you only have 1 good rebounder on the team, probably should have made sure to get another in recruiting, but still, you should be better than a bubble team. so lets look at your offense setup a little closer, it seems at a glance you have the offensive talent to be doing significantly better.
lets see, 5 losses in conf, well they sort of support my theory. there was one +2, where you still lost by 5 on the boards, and then a -2, -4, -5, -5 - see the part about needing to take more 3s. that could easily cost you a couple games right there along, which might be the difference between a 10 and 6-7 seed. still, your team should be better, i would think. hmmm, well, your passing is really not good - that will definitely come out in your fg% in a triangle offense. so, that helps explain some of why your offense is not as good as id think, glancing at your top scorers.
ok, heres another thing. i always say, motion operates off more of a balanced offense, and triangle, you push your lead scorers more. but they are not MASSIVELY different - in both cases, you want your best scorers scoring decently, but you still want a fairly slanted offensive setup - not just some top scorers and then boom, nothing. that's you problem. while you big scorers are out there, you are probably ok. but when not, you are screwed.
your distro is probably too sharp. now, your #1 scorer is a beast, so you dont need to bring him down at all in ppg terms. but your team really should be at least +5 ppg with the same tempos, so that gives some other players room to step up. when your 5th scorer is 4ppg, you are usually gonna struggle. and lets also note -your top 4 scorers include 0 seniors. you have no A iqs on the whole team - so judging this book by the cover (the ratings of the 3 top scorers) is definitely going to lead to too-high expectations. realistically, now that ive looked enough, if you played this team pretty well, you might only be looking at a 4-5 seed, instead of that 10, which is lower than i originally guessed (and maybe its more like a 2-3 if you play them really well, but i dont want to expect too much - but thats what i was thinking in the first place). from that 2-3, a little lower IQs than i guess, combined with poor triangle passing, brings you down those couple seeds to a 4-5. better team planning would bring you back up to that 2-3 - or even higher - you could have planned ahead of time, and had a more balanced team - you only have 1 senior on the team and he doesn't play. balance is key. you probably should have had a little better rebounding and a little better offensive talent outside your top 3, even giving up a little on defense, and that could put you more in the 1-2 seed range.
anyway, given the team you've got, what i think is costing you those 5 seeds is roughly 2 things. 1) your distro is out of whack. you can't be so ridiculously heavy at the top and then nothing at teh bottom. you have no A iq scorers, the gaps are just not justified. espino can score, there is no reason to have him so low. start of the season, when he had a c+/b- iq? maybe, now, with a b+? got to raise him up. mckines should probably be 1 distro higher than he is, assuming your top guys are double digits or close to it. kelly should actually probably be 1 lower, he sucks bad, i think you need to work on your valuation of ratings in offensive ability (your weightings of IQ, ath, spd, vs lp and per). mcconnelly should be contributing pretty significantly, there is absolutely no reason to have him at an insanely low 1.3ppg. he should be at least 5 times that. gibson and landes should probably go +1 distro too. these changes will help you have a more balanced offense. you are driving the fg% of your top 3 down by not supporting them at all. if they were all seniors as good as your best guy, fine, you could probably get away with scoring that low from the rest of teh team (connelly would still want to be 5ppg in that case, and esponio too, if not a few ppg higher).
but a lot of the issue is your expectations, like i mentioned - with that low iq and low passing in the triangle, combined with putting so much load on your top guys, you have to expect subpar fg% from your big 3. there is just no way around that.
oh yeah, i was listing the 2 things taking you from a 4-5 seed to a 10. the other is, as mentioned, the failure to properly shoot 3s. if you balance your offense a little, both in terms of who gets the scoring, and the type of scoring, your team will be much more efficient.
hope that helps! good luck turning it around, you still have time