If I'm not mistaken, there are 12 categories that generate messages: basically, the 12 numerical ratings, minus durability, plus free throw shooting. With 4 messages per trip, there is an 8/12 = 2/3 chance of not getting ATH on a particular SV. The probability of not getting it in 10 SVs, if there are generated independently, is (2/3)^10 = 0.0173, or about 1.7%. So not completely unbelievable, although a ripoff nonetheless. I should go back and look at all my pulldowns and see if the number of messages about each category are consistent with independent SVs, though. Sometimes it does seem like they are doing the same ones over and over again (in which case the odds of not getting one in particular are higher than 1.7%).