So, I traded for a reliever last year with the hopes that after a couple of years, he'd be up to his projected 90 Overall and 96/90 L/R split.  He pitched all year for me last year in a relief role, racking up 123.2 innings with an ERA of 4.73.  Season rolled over and is now in spring training, and he only progressed in his vs L split (+1), GB/FB ratio (+1) and each of his pitches increased by +1.

Is there anything that sticks out to any of you as to why he didn't progress more?  Also, my training budget was 17M both last year and this year.

Joe Powell

Thanks everyone.

He's 26 y/o in his 6th season.  

Ok, so I'm just being impatient...

Thanks!

I'm not sure it's impatient.    What I'm saying is that he's not going to progress much, if any, more.    You usually get 4-5 seasons of progression with 18 y/o out of HS.   He was a 20 y/o when drafted and, if you apply 4-5 seasons to him(and progression won't be a much), he's done. 

Ah... I see.  That's disappointing.  Luckily, he wasn't the centerpiece of the trade, but I sure like his projected ratings.

Thanks for your help man.

Plus, your advanced scouting is only $1m, which means that the projections you see are for the most part completely meaningless and should basically be ignored.

Posted by tecwrg on 5/7/2014 2:57:00 PM (view original):
Plus, your advanced scouting is only $1m, which means that the projections you see are for the most part completely meaningless and should basically be ignored.

What is the least acceptable budget of any of the scouting categories to have some reliability?

That can't really be answered.    In this particular case, he was looking at a 73 VR split projected to be 90.   For a 25/5 guy, that's never happening no matter how much scouting you have.    Scouting has to produce a number your mind accepts as "reasonable" or it's useless.    If the guy was drafted at 20(like he was) with a current 59 VR and a projection of 75, it's pretty accurate. 

If you have free time, wallhalen, I recommend you to through the old forum questions and read as many as you can find about player development. When I first started playing, I did that, and I learned a lot. I'm still not an expert, but it was very helpful.

One rule of thimb: If you want to project a player's peak ratings, look at the improvement from the first to the second season. Multiply that by 2 and by 3, and that gives you a reasonable range for where he'll end up. For example, your guy went from 59 to 66 in vR his first full season, a 7 point improvement. I'd expect him to end up between 73 (14 total omprovement) and 80 (21 total) based on that.

Another tip: go to the draft history report in your league, and look at some of the players who were drafted 5-6 years ago. These guys have peaked but not yet declined, so they should give you some good examples of how much a player can actually improve, and how many years it takes them to top out. For example, you'll probably see a few pitchers whose control improved by 25-30 points, but some other ratings that don't ever go up more than 10-15.