Watching the Giants and Royals play ball, I am struck by their scrappiness, hustle and spirit. And I am thinking that statistics have no way of capturing that.

I doubt that if WIS simmed 101 full 2014 seasons, that the Giants and Royals would wind up as the World Series entrants even once.

I dunno, 9 of the top 10 Giants in PA have over 100 OPS+.  Their rotation was pretty pedestrian this year, but Peavy has helped down the stretch and in the postseason, and their bullpen was good.

Royals aren't going to make it very often, but their pitching staff is solid everywhere...

WIS systematically overvalues batting average, speed, pitching and defense, and systematically undervalues power and OBP.  Giants and Royals...especially the Royals... are exactly the kinds of teams that would overperform in WIS. "Scrappiness, hustle, and spirit" have nothing to do with their success in MLB, nor their likelt success in WIS.  "Luck", especially with regards to KC, has a lot more to do with their current standing.

The Royals, if they win the World Series this season, will take over the title for "worst World Series winner in my lifetime."  Currently held by a 3-way tie between their 1985 brethren, the 1987 Twins, and the 1988 Dodgers.

I'm a Cardinals fan, but I'll nominate the 2006 Cards as one of the worst World Series winners of all time. Their rotation was a joke, but Detroit just imploded and handed them the championship.

I chalked it up to Detroit's karma catching up with them after they lucked out against Bob Gibson in 1968's 7th game.

As for WIS undervaluing OBP, I don't agree. I've had teams lead their leagues in walks and runs scored, and the correlation between the two was high.

No one can quantify luck, but when a team consistently performs well in a progressive league with high walks and runs scored, despite ordinary B.Avgs. and unexceptional pitching, I'd say WIS values OBP. In fact, if I understand the event tree correctly, WIS determines BB outcomes before it determines outs and hits.

No way WIS overvalues batting average either. I can draft .300 to .350+ hitters and they consistently hit 100 or more points below their RL average.

I'm a Sox fan but the 2013 Red Sox were the most  amazing illusion I've ever seen win a WS. I def think the sim undervalues power, but I think many of the most successful teams I've seen or had, usually have a very good to great team OBP.

Very interesting comments here (above).  I joined a long term progressive league when beginning here at WIS. Was my first team.  There were/are some very long term (experienced) owners in the league.  Those that have given me advise on the WIS "system"--and how the algorithum (sp?) works, to a man claim that WIS over-values HR's.  Most of the owners in that league will almost always go for a big HR hitter during drafts, over a comparable other player at any position----particularly outfielders.  Guys like Bill Bruton or (even) Richie Ashburn tend to be "passed over" for a big HR bat!  It has been my assumption (with limited time here), and that league's hitting stats tend to confirm this, that MORE HR's occur every season than in R/L.  The pitching stats almost always reveal that hurlers give up more bombs than their R/L stats.

Once I figured that out-------and started to draft Pitchers with much much more emphasis on their HR/9# stat, I've done much better........... I think!!    :-)

LB

Posted by laramiebob on 10/27/2014 10:43:00 AM (view original):
Very interesting comments here (above).  I joined a long term progressive league when beginning here at WIS. Was my first team.  There were/are some very long term (experienced) owners in the league.  Those that have given me advise on the WIS "system"--and how the algorithum (sp?) works, to a man claim that WIS over-values HR's.  Most of the owners in that league will almost always go for a big HR hitter during drafts, over a comparable other player at any position----particularly outfielders.  Guys like Bill Bruton or (even) Richie Ashburn tend to be "passed over" for a big HR bat!  It has been my assumption (with limited time here), and that league's hitting stats tend to confirm this, that MORE HR's occur every season than in R/L.  The pitching stats almost always reveal that hurlers give up more bombs than their R/L stats.

Once I figured that out-------and started to draft Pitchers with much much more emphasis on their HR/9# stat, I've done much better........... I think!!    :-)

LB

People that say the SIM undervalues power are looking at open leagues and similar types of leagues. That is to say, leagues in which pre-1920 pitching is allowed. Those pitchers are much better at suppressing HRs in the SIM than any hitters are in hitting them.

When you ban deadballers (and being in a progressive that isn't in the deadball era will do this) then HRs become a very legitimate and potent option.

Makes good sense.  Thanks Al.