So here's a fun exercise for someone. Can you write a formula that will provide a ranking result corresponding to the ranking in the first column using the values for p1-p5 for both tables? I'm sure there's some fancy math that could help you determine it, but I'm struggling.

	CT	LH	RH	VE	GB	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5
1	90	97	72	88	81	96	82	67	39	0
2	91	63	77	25	62	93	88	58	42	0
3	81	74	76	71	70	92	86	51	0	0
4	50	79	73	95	98	93	74	63	47	0
5	93	61	54	37	62	93	83	50	37	0
1	71	54	69	43	23	90	84	75	0	0
2	78	73	81	81	43	91	80	71	67	41
3	86	54	69	38	79	88	80	65	46	0
4	79	79	77	33	69	86	81	62	56	0
5	58	61	75	70	45	93	78	62	45	48

The background on this... my world just had one of those 'Best Pitches' news items and I thought it'd be easy to see how much WIS values P1-P5 based on that ranking. Doesn't seem quite as easy as saying P1 = 50%, P2 = 35%, P3 = 7.5%, P4 = %5, P5 = 2.5%.

The problem is pretty simple.   There is a point where WifS considers a pitch a negative.    I once thought it was 30(DITR reduced pitch rating as if player was working on dropping the pitch).   But someone produced an upper 30s that did the same thing.    The one thing I DIDN'T factor is was the pitch number.    Maybe sub 30 on P5 is a negative and sub 40 on P4 is treated the same way.   I just didn't pay that much attention.   To expand beyond that, maybe 50 on P3 is a negative and 60/70 on P2/P1.     Without knowing if ANY of this is true, producing a formula seems damn near impossible.

Mike I have a hunch that there exists ML standard "qualifications" like how for fielding a qualifying ML SS is 80/85/85/85, ML 1B is 40/40/40/40.  Except that for pitching the standards are unclear.  My guesses are that ML standard is 80 for P1, 70 for P2, 50 for P3, 40 for P4, and 25 or 30 for P5.  

Similar to how a SS with sub-standing glove directly correlates to more errors, a pitcher with sub-standard P1 and P2 seems to correlate with .... something... but I can't even tell what exactly P1 and P2 are tied to.  Is it batting average?  It's impossible to even tell because the user guide doesn't explain it very well.  The Ps are "skilled in throwing a pitch" and vsR is "skilled in getting out righties"... what the hell does any of that even mean, you know?  

I also remember reading that the P1-P5 algorithm reads left-to-right (which relates to something I remember you reading where you prefer having pitchers whose ratings descend left-to-right, rather than guys with P2 of 50, P3 of 30, and P4 of 70.... it makes a difference you know?) and I also remember reading (from mchale I think?) that the decision tree weights P3 thru P5 equally... 

Would it make sense that the pitching algorithm is broken into two halves where control and splits are tied to WHIP, control is directly tied to walk rate, arm is tied to K rate, and the pitches (along with flyball rate?) are part of a separate construct that's similar to the fielding algorithm?

I've tried to use a very simple formula to come up with a weighted overall value for P1-P5 pitches.  It almost works for the two sets of examples you have above.

Basically: ((P1*5)+(P2*4)+(P3*3)+(P4*2)+(P5*1))/(sum of weights for non-zero pitches).

So for instance, the first guy (96,82,67,39,0) would be:

((96*5)+(82*4)+(67*3)+(39*2)+(0*1)) / (5+4+3+2), or (1087 / 14) = 77.6

Using that formula on your two sets of players, we get:

1 - 77.6
2 - 76.8
3 - 79.8
4 - 74.6
5 - 72.9

and

1 - 87.6
2 - 77.5
3 - 74.8
4 - 75.1
5 - 73.4

It's not perfect, as you can see that the 3-pitch pitcher (#3) in the first group is rated the highest, and #3 and #4 is the second group are in the wrong order, but it's close.

But it seems that this formula might be similar in concept to what they do.  Maybe the weights are different for 3 pitch pitchers, 4 pitch pitchers, and 5 pitch pitchers.

very nice

I've often wondered this myself.  I have a guy who's 5 pitches are

85-72-47-79-47

I often wonder if he would be better if he were

85-72-79-47-47

or even

85-79-72-47-47.

Seems to me like his pitch selection and amount he would use each pitch ranks 1-5 (use the 1st pitch 50% 2nd pitch 30% then 10%, 5%, 5% respectivly)

I dunno.

Similarly I have a guy who's 3 pitches are

87-72-45

Is he better then my pitcher who's pitches are

84-66-63-43

Right now the stats would say otherwise.

Posted by tecwrg on 11/19/2014 8:07:00 PM (view original):
I've tried to use a very simple formula to come up with a weighted overall value for P1-P5 pitches.  It almost works for the two sets of examples you have above.

Basically: ((P1*5)+(P2*4)+(P3*3)+(P4*2)+(P5*1))/(sum of weights for non-zero pitches).

So for instance, the first guy (96,82,67,39,0) would be:

((96*5)+(82*4)+(67*3)+(39*2)+(0*1)) / (5+4+3+2), or (1087 / 14) = 77.6

Using that formula on your two sets of players, we get:

1 - 77.6
2 - 76.8
3 - 79.8
4 - 74.6
5 - 72.9

and

1 - 87.6
2 - 77.5
3 - 74.8
4 - 75.1
5 - 73.4

It's not perfect, as you can see that the 3-pitch pitcher (#3) in the first group is rated the highest, and #3 and #4 is the second group are in the wrong order, but it's close.

But it seems that this formula might be similar in concept to what they do.  Maybe the weights are different for 3 pitch pitchers, 4 pitch pitchers, and 5 pitch pitchers.

I'm with you that just a simple formula would be nice, but it doesn't rank them the same way WIS does.

I was looking at Mantle and found median p1-p5 to be 82, 70, 53, 51, 36 with standard deviations of 7, 9, 11, 12, 11. So I think anything higher than 89, 79, 64, 63, 47 is really positive and anything lower than 75, 61, 42, 39, 25 is really negative.

I'd really love to see another couple of these posted. I think I'm getting close, but would like to run it against another one, and then also run it against other pitchers in the world and see if, when run against everyone else the top 5 still remain the top5. That would be the topper for me. 

Tell all your friends to look out for a new one.

With 150+ worlds, I'm sure there will be one appearing in some world today or tomorrow...

Posted by MikeT23 on 11/19/2014 12:58:00 PM (view original):
The problem is pretty simple.   There is a point where WifS considers a pitch a negative.    I once thought it was 30(DITR reduced pitch rating as if player was working on dropping the pitch).   But someone produced an upper 30s that did the same thing.    The one thing I DIDN'T factor is was the pitch number.    Maybe sub 30 on P5 is a negative and sub 40 on P4 is treated the same way.   I just didn't pay that much attention.   To expand beyond that, maybe 50 on P3 is a negative and 60/70 on P2/P1.     Without knowing if ANY of this is true, producing a formula seems damn near impossible.

To muddle everything we thought we knew.

The following are the P1-P5 bumps/reductions from a recent DITR:

69 51 26 34 27
75 59 31 31 31

The part that really stands out and makes me scratch my head is that P3 and P5 both start in the 20s and climb, while P4 is 34 and drops?

WTH?

So does this mean that the weight theory is wrong altogether?

I don't know how, if P1 is more important than P2 and so on, can a P3 of 26 be thought good enough to "work on", yet a P4 of 34 is too low and is better to drop?

Or maybe a decline doesn't NECESSARILY equate to the coach trying to get him to drop it?

Either way I am utterly confused by that DITR

Just replied to your most recent SM.

Basically, no way did WifS program "Improve P5, drop P4" into the system.    That just didn't happen.    I think it's muddled gibberish as I stated in the 1st SM.

Linked for MA

Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Junior Sanders

Yeah, that makes no sense whatsoever...

I have a pitcher on one of my teams that has kind of developed into one of my favorites. By no means is he a hall of famer, but I signed him in the FA period after taking over a former team mid way thru the season. I was doing a "tear it down/rebuild" type thing, I think it had gone thru 5 owners in the 2.5 seasons that I was "away". Anyhoo, he was a late FA period signee, I figured he could give me some valuable innings, then be moved into the bullpen in the future.

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=4212381

After getting hurt in ST and missing the first 1/3 of the season, he made his first ever start in the majors for my squad (had been all relief the prior 6 ML seasons with other teams) and has produced 64 wins (and counting) in nearly 4 seasons as a starter, along with a 3.00ish era and a 1.20ish WHIP, far better than I was expecting. He's really nothing special (solid, but not special) with his control, splits, velocity or sink, nor are any of his pitches dominate, but he's got a nice 81-71-68-62-38 pitch line. Those #3 & #4 pitches, which are strong in relation to other pitchers 3rd & 4th best pitch I think has made all the difference. I have a strong defense behind him, not sure if he had that in his prior stops or not, but he's best years have easily been as a starter in my rotation the last 4.

Here's another set that just came out.

Player Rank	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5
1	90	86	58	58
2	96	79	47
3	90	76	58	63
4	74	79	85	48
5	93	75	60	55	44
1	90	78	75	57
2	99	65	47	63
3	93	72	71	40
4	85	66	90	68	13
5	91	80	46	55

And the first 2 sets of 5 from the OP:

Player Rank	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5
1	96	82	67	39	0
2	93	88	58	42	0
3	92	86	51	0	0
4	93	74	63	47	0
5	93	83	50	37	0
1	90	84	75	0	0
2	91	80	71	67	41
3	88	80	65	46	0
4	86	81	62	56	0
5	93	78	62	45	48