question about ballpark effects - SimLeague Baseball

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I have never really looked too deeply into certain aspects of ballbark effects. I am building a couple of teams right now that I need to understand how the ratings effect each other in order to make some decisions. The following parks are theoretical and not meant to represent an actual park. I am simply throwing out numbers for comparison purposes.

            1B 2B 3B HR/LF HR/RF


Park A +1 +2 +2 +2          +2

Park B +1 0       0       +2       +2

Park C +3 0 0       +2          +2

Questions: How do the +2 ratings in the 2b/3b categories effect home runs? How do singles effect home runs? Which park would you expect to hit more home runs in? I don't know how the decision tree works and don't know the influences that the ratings in each category has on each other. Any insight would be appreciated.

1/18/2015 5:37 PM

ncmusician_7

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Park C would yield the most HR. A positive number in the 1B category will increase the likelihood of a hit for each at bat, which indirectly increases the number of HR.

1/18/2015 5:50 PM

contrarian23

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Not sure if this will help you or not, but the sum total of what I know about the topic is here:

http://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?TopicID=457843

1/18/2015 8:14 PM

Area51man

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Okay. That leads me to another question. Not so hypothetical. Which of the three following parks would you think would yield more home runs (and why):

                         1B 2B 3B HR/LF HR/RF


Coors            +3 +3       +3 +4 +4

Yankee III      +1 -1 -3 +3 +4

Fulton County +2 0 -2 +3 +3

1/18/2015 11:01 PM (edited)

frazzman80

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I've always (probably inaccurately) thought of each +/-1 to be roughly 5% more/less for hits based on the number in the singles column. This would effect your team's batting average. So, looking at your examples, I'd say I'd get 15% more hits in Coors, 5% more hits in Yankee III and 10% more hits in Fulton County.

After that, I've always taken the other effects to determine what type of hits and treated them based on historical averages of hit distribution (http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/). So, the MLB average throughout history for 1Bs, 2Bs, 3Bs and HR per hit is 72.1% singles, 16.9% for doubles, 3.5% for triples and 7.5% for HRs.

So, that means a park like Coors is going to have a much lower percentage of singles because each of the other categories are going to be increasing by the percentage of the +3s and +4s in the 2Bs, 3Bs and HRs categories (whatever that percentage may be, I think it is smaller than the 5% number I use for overall hits). Let's say it is 2%. That means Coors would have ratios of 52.1% singles, 22.9% doubles, 9.5% 3Bs and 15.5% for HRs. Those are still significant changes.

Yankee III will see a reduction in both 2Bs and 3Bs percentage and an increase in 1Bs and HR percentage, so you might argue that some of those lost 2Bs and 3Bs will turn into HRs, but since they give you the +3/+4 numbers, they essentially tell you what percentage that is, so my thought is that the 1Bs percentage will be higher at Yankee III. Fulton County will also see reductions in the 3Bs percentage to be increased in HRs and 1Bs percentage again.

If you are looking for the most HRs, I would rank them Coors, Fulton County and Yankee III. Coors is going to give you 15% more hits than average with an increase to every extra-base hit including HRs. Fulton County has 5% fewer hits than Coors, so you have less HR chances, and the ratio will be less as well. Yankee III has 10% fewer hit chances than Coors, and with a similar HR ratio will likely not lead to more HRs.

That's my take for what it's worth.

1/20/2015 12:36 PM

nockahoma

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where would you play a team that is a beast offensively(.321/.384/.550 slash line, 264 HR's in 5600 PA's) and quite formidable pitching(.214/1.00/2.40 slash line, allowing 93 HR's) - in an offensive-oriented park, like Coors or AFCS or in a pitcher's park, like Dodger Stadium?

How would these #'s translate in What If park of all zero's?

1/20/2015 1:02 PM

frazzman80

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There are a few things I would look at when deciding which park to use beyond the slash numbers you gave. What are the normalized strengths of the hitters? Are any of their HR/100AB# stats higher than the 2B/100AB# stats? Do multiple players have high 3B/100AB# stats? Is everyone's 1B/100AB# higher than 20? Answering these questions will help you find a park that truly fits your hitters best attributes and then you can know whether your team is best at 2Bs, HRs or is a balanced team. Then you pick a park that accentuates these stats for your hitters.

There are some specific normalized numbers to look at on the pitchers sides as well. OAV# is a much better indicator than straight OAV as normalization matters. Same for BB/9# instead of just BB/9. 93 HR's allowed doesn't tell me much because I don't know your IP totals (and 93 HRs in 1000 IP is not as good as 93 HRs in 1400 IP). The stats I use for HRs are HR/9+ (the higher the better with 100 being average) and HR/9#. If you have a team with low OAV# and BB/9# with high HR/9+, then you can get focus more on your hitters stats and let them dictate your choice. The Pitchers parks really do 2 things in my mind: Lower OAV (especially the -1Bs parks) and due to the fact that there are fewer hits, you can draft fewer IP. If picking a pitcher's park allows you to save money on IP and draft higher-quality stats for your pitching staff, then it's certainly worth putting your team in a pitcher's park.

1/20/2015 3:19 PM (edited)

nockahoma

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thank you....cleared a few things up for me

the team has 3 of the 8 guys in the lineup @ over 20 1B/100AB# and all but one over 19
the team seems to hit more 2B/100AB# than HR/100AB# by a 6 to 5 margin
definitely not a triples team, as only 1 is over 1/100AB#

the 93 HR's were in 1406 IP's
starters avg: OAV# - .219 BB/9# - 1.81 HR/9 - +171
bullpen avg: OAV# - .208 BB/9# - 2.39 HR/9 - +178

1/20/2015 3:54 PM

frazzman80

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Thanks...with a team like that, I'd go with a park that is neutral to 1Bs, a + to 2Bs (1 or 2) and either neutral or maybe a slight plus to HR's (not more than 1). I'd also pick a - to 3Bs, because it won't do your team any good and can hurt your opponents if they are using 3Bs as a strategy. Just remember that the more HRs you hit, the less importance you have for 1Bs and 2Bs and then BBs become even more valuable (as balls in play can be turned into outs and DPs).

You have a fairly balanced team with no one really high in any of the hitting # stats (I use 23+ for 1Bs# and 7+ for any of the other numbers as high).

Conversely, your pitching staff has average OAV #s (in an $80 million league, I use .215 as a base and then scale up/down by .015 for each $20 million in cap change) and though your starters may benefit from a - 1Bs park, it might negatively affect your hitters because fewer hits means fewer 2Bs and HRs (though I feel your OBP is high enough to overcome this lower batting average and you'll still have men on base). I certainly wouldn't use a + hits park with those OAVs. Your HR/9 numbers are good enough that you could survive in a slight + HR park if you wanted to give your offense a boost, although with a base HR/9 of .59, you'll likely give up over 100 HRs in a + HR park. I like that your BB/9 numbers are low because BBs are the one thing that plays in any park.

Options I see that fit that description are: Citizens Bank Park, Great American (although you will give up more HRs), National League Park II (although it hurts your offensive HRs a bit) or if you want to help your pitchers a bit with OAV: Ebbets, Memorial Stadium, Candlestick or Three Rivers

Other things to consider are defense. Good defense and range are more important in a hitters park (especially anything with +2 or higher for 1Bs) but not as important in a pitchers park (where the - to 1Bs helps to turn already turn hits into outs).

1/20/2015 5:17 PM (edited)

duece_duece

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Frazz when you say "Good defense and range are more important in a hitters park (especially anything with +2 or higher for 1Bs) but not as important in a pitchers park (where the - to 1Bs helps turn hits into outs)." What makes you say this, not saying I completely disagree I have always looked at it a little differently and would like to know where you read this or is this more of an opinion?

1/20/2015 9:52 PM

ncmusician_7

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"Good defense and range are more important in a hitters park".............. I don't really agree with this. While a high range player will usually get more + plays in a hitters ballpark, good fielding percentages will result in a lower percentage of errors in a pitchers park.

1/20/2015 10:57 PM

nockahoma

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Thanks, guys. Between this & all of the other threads I've been reading, it should help me in the future when selecting ballparks.

Good stuff.

1/21/2015 8:44 AM

frazzman80

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Posted by duece_duece on 1/20/2015 9:52:00 PM (view original):
Frazz when you say "Good defense and range are more important in a hitters park (especially anything with +2 or higher for 1Bs) but not as important in a pitchers park (where the - to 1Bs helps turn hits into outs)." What makes you say this, not saying I completely disagree I have always looked at it a little differently and would like to know where you read this or is this more of an opinion?

My opinion is that if there are more hits in a hitters park, there will be more balls in play in general. Thus, with more balls in play, there will be more opportunities for +, -, ++ plays or errors based on the increased number of PAs. If over the course of a season, a hitters park is going to yield an extra 250 PAs (random number as an example), then that means there will be 250 more chances for the event tree to take place. In a pitchers park, if there are going to be 250 less PAs (again, random number), then that's 250 less opportunities for those +/- plays or errors to take place.

Good defense will play anywhere and good fielding percentages/range play the same at all ballparks. But I've always believed that the more PAs and balls in play, the more chances for fielders. Thus, a hitters park (especially anything with a +2 or higher for 1Bs) would give better defenders more opportunities to make +/- plays or errors than a pitchers park due to the nature of more balls in play and more PAs.

Again...that's my opinion. Personally, I'd never play at a place like Coors or Hilltop without really rangy fielders (especially outfielders) due to the fact that there will be more hits and balls in play. Likewise, I feel like I can scrimp on range at a place like Safeco because there will be fewer chances for those fielders.

1/21/2015 1:03 PM

frazzman80

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Posted by ncmusician_7 on 1/20/2015 10:57:00 PM (view original):
"Good defense and range are more important in a hitters park".............. I don't really agree with this. While a high range player will usually get more + plays in a hitters ballpark, good fielding percentages will result in a lower percentage of errors in a pitchers park.

True...good defense plays anywhere. I just think it's more important in a hitters park due to extra hits, PAs and balls in play.

1/21/2015 1:04 PM

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