Does whatif have some type of variability that increases in tourney play?

I lost to the 6th seed team in the conference tourney in the first round after beating them by 36 in the regular season. That same team then beat the 2 seed to reach the semifinals, after the 2 seed beat them by double digits twice in the regular season. This is a sim team we're talking about.

Has anyone seen anything like this before? Both my team and the 2 seed are substantially better than the sim-coached 6th seed

I don't think so. It was just a lucky run for the 6 seed. It happens during the season too, in my CSU Pueblo team I just lost to a team I was predicted to beat by 31

www.whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/Schedule.aspx

After a quick look it's a simple answer.  That team you lost to is sophmore heavy.  Players usually hit B+ IQ's towards the end of their sophmore years, and the jump from B to B+ IQ is the most significant IQ jump in the game.  So that's why that team is better than during the regular season.